Wednesday, February 15, 2012

2012 Animation Box Office Predictions (Part 4)

Finding Nemo 3D - The unexpected success of the 3D re-release of The Lion King drove Disney to commission more 3D re-releases of their films plus Pixar’s films. Beauty and the Beast 3D was next in line, but it hasn’t made half of what The Lion King 3D made. Why is that? The Lion King wasn’t available on home video when the release hit last September, people had to wait until October to buy the new Diamond Edition Blu-ray or DVD. A 3D Blu-ray version was also released.

On the same day, the 3D Blu-ray edition of Beauty and the Beast was released, although the film’s Diamond Edition has been available since October 2010. (It’s going back in the vault in two months) This is probably why Beauty and the Beast 3D has only made over $40 million at the domestic box office.
Finding Nemo is not in the vault, and it has been available on home video since its first and only release on DVD and VHS in November 2003. However, the film is not available on Blu-ray or Blu-ray 3D. I believe the re-release will outgross Beauty and the Beast’s 3D re-release, as it hasn’t been available in 3D before. Beast was, on Blu-ray 3D, but still. Also, like The Lion King, Finding Nemo is one of Disney’s highest grossing films (unadjusted) of all time. Beauty and the Beast’s gross and attendance were significantly lower than both.
I expect it to hit gross at least $50 million domestically. The highest it can go is $100 million. So it might be another Lion King 3D-sized success, or it may not do so well. Expect the film to hit Blu-ray and Blu-ray 3D after the re-release.

Hotel Transylvania - Since Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, Sony Pictures Animation is now a big competitor in the animation field. While their collaboration with Aardman didn’t do so well, The Smurfs did. Hotel Transylvania can be a moderate success at best. It depends on how it appeals to the public. There’s a couple of similar animated films coming out this year: ParaNorman and Frankenweenie.
With no trailer out, it’s hard to predict. If the film turns out to be a good one, then $80 million should be the minimum, domestically. It could possibly be a break out hit, even though September is not really a hot month for films in general. An opening weekend of over $20 million is highly possible.

Frankenweenie - I expect this film to perform similarly to The Nightmare Before Christmas and Coraline. That means it’ll probably miss $100 million. Tim Burton’s films usually aren’t massive blockbusters, with a few exceptions of course.

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