Monday, May 4, 2015

'Home' Box Office Progress


How is DreamWorks' latest doing at the box office so far?

The latest DreamWorks film opened up in China recently, and it'll bow in Venezuela and South Korea later this month...

Right now, the pic has garnered $158 million domestically and $168 million overseas, so it's currently sitting at $326 million worldwide. The film cost $135 million to make, and ideally, a big film of this caliber should make 2 1/2 times its price tag. So Home needs to make $337 million, it's just $11 million away from that...

However...

DreamWorks has weird math, as far as I can see. I'm no business person, so someone's going to have to enlighten me here.

Rise of the Guardians and Mr. Peabody & Sherman didn't make 2.5x their budgets, fair enough. Those were both super-costly. However, Penguins of Madagascar made 2.8x its $132 million budget, and made a healthy $373 million worldwide. Yet DreamWorks deemed it a flop and took a big write down on it... What was it, $57 million? Yet, Turbo, which barely doubled its budget, resulted in a $13 million write down. Back in 2009, the $175 million-costing Monsters vs. Aliens didn't make 2.5x its budget, but it wasn't deemed a flop.

I don't get it.

Anyways, DreamWorks still seems rather optimistic about this film's box office performance at the moment. It sure had a shock $52 million opening, and the domestic total for it will be their best for a non-sequel film since The Croods, but legs have been "just good" at best, not as good as other animated films' legs... And this film had little family-friendly competition in its way too, I'm surprised it isn't performing like The Croods.

So what does DreamWorks want it to make? Is 2.5x the budget ($337 million worldwide) enough? Or are they expecting more? Overhead has been reduced at the company, so maybe this gross won't be too much of a problem, plus with everything that's been going on there, maybe they'll see the film's final gross as a relief.

It's doing strong business over in China, which no doubt boosted the overseas total this weekend. How far does it go there? Probably far, it'll probably be like The Croods all over again, which did really well there too. South Korea ought to boost it, too. Venezuela is a small market, so the most it could make there is probably $15 million.

So it seems like the film will finish with over $200 million overseas. Pretty good, pretty good. But how much more?

Here, it seems like a total north of $165 million is likely. It depends on how the next batch of family-friendly titles affect it, films like Tomorrowland, Inside Out, etc.

So let's see... Here's my current prediction: $165 million domestic plus a possible $220 million overseas gross, we get $385 million. 2.8x its budget... But will DreamWorks call it a flop like they did with Penguins of Madagascar should it make this much? We shall see...

2 comments:

  1. Production budgets are numbers given by the studio. If something causes an increase in the production cost, the studio isn't obligated to report that to the public. I'd guess that Penguins is an outlier that, for whatever reason, cost more than the given 132 mil.

    ReplyDelete
  2. It says here that Dreamworks does currently expect Home to be profitable, probably beginning g to enter the black by Q2 of this year.
    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/04/30/dreamworks-animation-skg-inc-earnings-dive-on-rest.aspx

    ReplyDelete