Saturday, June 20, 2015

Jump Up For Joy: 'Inside Out' Scores $34 Million Opening Day / $90 Million Weekend Gross! [UPDATE]

Look at that, early box office reports are saying that Inside Out will have the biggest opening for a non-sequel Pixar film!

Variety, Box Office Mojo, and Deadline report that the film has collected $34 million on Friday, which means it'll gross more than roughly $85 million for the weekend. Some analysts are saying it'll top $90 million for the weekend.


A little background...

Very few animated family films released since 2005 have opened with more than $60 million unadjusted, except the Pixar films, almost all of which easily leapt past it. However, their originals have always settled for sub-$70 million totals. Up came close at $68 million back in 2009, today that adjusts to $74 million. Sequel Toy Story 3 and prequel Monsters University made $110 million and $83 million respectively. Finding Dory is sure to get up there next summer, if not break the opening weekend record for an animated film, which has been held by Shrek the Third since 2007.

Outside of Pixar, rarely do I see other big animated films pass $50 million on opening weekend. Some non-sequels in the last five years have done it, like Despicable Me, FrozenThe Lego MovieBig Hero 6, and most recently, Home.

If Inside Out scores in the $85-92 million range, it'll be up there with the adjusted openings for Monsters, Inc. ($89 million), Finding Nemo ($94 million), and The Incredibles ($92 million). That's pretty massive... Why are those films' adjusted opening weekend totals so high? The answer: Where were you in the early-to-mid 2000s? It was the CG boom, and any big-scale, family-friendly computer animated film was a guaranteed winner. It was a time when something like Shark Tale could make over $120 million domestically! Nowadays, audiences are choosier and the novelty of CG is long gone. The films now have to look appealing, them being CG films isn't enough these days...

Pixar really scored with this one, more so than their other post-Incredibles originals. I guess the emotions really got a hold on American audiences, and it has an A CinemaScore, so legs ought to be good. There was concern early on that the film being "too adult" or whatever would hold it back, and it is a legitimate concern, because audiences can be unpredictable and fickle. A deeper, less conventional, or more emotional animated film could have issues when it comes to how audiences will perceive it. Let's look at WALL-E. That sci-fi epic had a relatively low 3.5x multiplier for Pixar, and the film indeed polarized some audiences out there. It's a miracle it was able to hold on that well. See, I don't see Inside Out as that kind of film. I think it'll perform more like Up (4.3x) than WALL-E or Brave...

Minions is sure to be a monster next month and should temporarily put the brakes on the speeding Pixar express, but I think Inside Out will play so well that it'll really hold on after that film opens and dash past $300 million domestically. Even if it plays like WALL-E or Brave, it's still making a minimum of $300 million domestically, working off of an $85 million opening! Monsters University opened with $82 million back in 2013, and didn't reach $300 million because its multiplier was a decent (by Pixar's standards) 3.2x.

What's more?

The film took the #1 spot.

That's right, it beat juggernaut Jurassic World. While analysts are thinking Jurassic World will win the weekend overall with around $103 million (which is what The Avengers made on its second weekend), at least the Pixar film got the #1 spot that it could've missed. Even if it is for just one day! So the streak is unbroken in that way, but if Jurassic World wins the weekend, the "weekend streak" will be broken. Still, a Pixar film got to have its day at #1 despite a big booming blockbuster near it.

This all makes me wonder how their future original films will open. Is Inside Out that one special, non-sequel kind of Pixar film that opens above $85 million? That once-in-a-blue-moon occurrence? Or will future Pixar originals reach this benchmark or come close to it? Hey, I wonder if this film's success and dinos being all the rage right now will really work in The Good Dinosaur's favor. Think about it, "Oh my god! The people who made Inside Out making a dinosaur movie?! I'm so going!"

At least that's what I hope will happen...

Either way, it's a red letter day for Pixar and for animation fans! A coup d'etat to coin a Norman phrase...

UPDATE (Sunday)

Weekend results are in... An amazing $91 million! Update (Monday), scratch that: $90 million.

Ninety million dollars... Look... At... That!

This is the biggest opening ever for a film not based on any pre-existing source material. The biggest opening for an original film, taking the record away from Avatar, which held it for nearly six years! Plus, it sits nicely alongside the adjusted openings for Monsters, Inc., Finding Nemo, and The Incredibles. Pixar hasn't had a non-sequel opening that big since The Incredibles!

Big doins'!

So, the big question is, how will it do from here? The next couple of weekends should give us an idea of what the legs for this picture will be like...

If it plays like Monsters University with a 3.2x multiplier, it'll make around $291 million. But I think it'll definitely go higher than that!

I'm thinking the multiplier for this film will be in the Toy Story 3 and Incredibles region, around 3.7x. How come I don't see it going higher? Well, sometimes it seems that the bigger the opening, the smaller the multiplier. So many saw it on opening weekend alone, and sometimes those big multipliers come from people who didn't see it on opening weekend, basically word-of-mouth spreading to those who didn't or may not have seen the movie in question. Inside Out's word-of-mouth will definitely be strong, 3.7x for a film opening north of $90 million is no small accomplishment!

With a 3.7x multiplier, it should end up with over $335 million domestically. I think it'll achieve that, but I'll happily eat crow if it scores a 4x multiplier. Sometimes anomalies occur, and if Inside Out is so beloved by those who saw it on opening weekend, then 4x is not out of the question. Minions, again, is sure to slightly halt the Pixar express. The film will most likely open with more than $75 million, given the power of the Despicable Me franchise and the Minions alone. However, after that, Inside Out will co-exist with the Minion hi-jinks because the audience love for it seems to be very strong...

It's possible that Minions might end up being affected by the mind-blowing Pixar original. Who knows!

Either way, Inside Out continues the streak of great openers for Pixar. Sure, the dang dinos took away the #1 spot for the weekend gross, but Inside Out opened with $91 million. An original story that pushes family entertainment, especially animated family entertainment, forward grossed $91 million. That's the real story here, folks.

How do you think it will hang on?

1 comment:

  1. now all Disney needs to do from now on is OPEN THEIR FILMS ALL OVER THE WORLD IN THE SAME TIME. tons of major markets open the film in August???????? like, WTF???? are they expecting them to NOT pirate the film???? like????