Thursday, July 7, 2016

Just How Will 'Kubo' Do At The Box Office?

It's a little over a month away, and Focus Features has put together yet another trailer for LAIKA's upcoming stop-motion animated epic...

Now, I'm not going to watch this new trailer because I think I've seen enough. We had the teaser back in December, then three full trailers... They're on number four in terms of full trailers...

This all makes me wonder... Just how big with LAIKA's fourth be? The trailers are seriously pushing the epic scope of the film, while also having some little bits of comedy here and there, some bits on the story, and so on. The trailers are actually pretty well-put together, but I have no idea if this is going to get the public to go gaga over it.

LAIKA's track record... Coraline, ParaNorman, and The Boxtrolls respectively opened under $18 million at the domestic box office, the first two of the three had stunning longevity. The Boxtrolls was cut in half when it lost a lot of theaters one weekend, so it couldn't co-exist with the family films that opened after it.

So how high does Kubo and the Two Strings open? Higher than The Boxtrolls? Lower?

All I know is, Focus is putting so much oomph into this one. What does it have for competition after its opening? Well, Lionsgate's US dub of Robinson Crusoe (called The Wild Life here) shouldn't hurt it, but Pete's Dragon opens a week before it. That could hurt Kubo's chances if the film's teaser and four trailers still haven't convinced audiences to go see the picture. Marketing is weird that way. You could have your film all over the place, but if the footage isn't doing a thing for a ton of the movie-going public, they won't show up anyway.

With Coraline and ParaNorman teetering onto spooky territory, and Boxtrolls being more of a romp, I think Kubo and the Two Strings - with its big adventure tone - could open with around $17-20 million. Not much of a jump ahead of Boxtrolls, but still good for what it is. If all goes right, we may have their biggest both domestically and internationally.

One of these days, though, they have to get their box office due. They'll make a film one day, I believe, whose trailers will hit a chord with the public and they'll hit the theaters to see it. Some might argue that stop-motion just isn't bankable, and is just a one-and-done thing, but I think otherwise. My philosophy is: If a movie looks good, no matter the medium, the audience will see it.

What say you?

1 comment:

  1. As much as I love Laika, and am looking forward to this movie, I don't see it connecting with general audiences more than any of their other films. Domestically, at least. I could see it doing better overseas, especially in Asian countries, but I just can't see it breaking out in the US.

    It seems that just about every animated movie that focuses more on action than comedy or cute characters under-performs. I'm reminded of movies like Rise Of The Guardians, or Epic, or Owls Of Ga'hoole. I really wouldn't be surprised if this becomes Laika's lowest-grossing movie domestically. I'd love to be proven wrong, though, and I will definitely be seeing it in theaters.