Thursday, November 24, 2016

Weekend Lookout: 'Moana' Makes Big Waves


To the shock of no one, Walt Disney Animation Studios' new, big, epic musical about a princess that happens to star The Rock is going to come in like a tidal wave...

Collecting $15.6 million yesterday, it's almost on par with Frozen's opening Wednesday - $15.1 million. Frozen went on to score the biggest 5-day Thanksgiving week gross: $93 million. If Moana follows a similar trajectory, it could very well top Frozen. This means it could make roughly $65-70 million for the three-day alone. It's all set, and will be locked and loaded when Rogue One rolls in next month.

In the long run, I don't think it'll pull a Frozen. Frozen was one of those leggy phenomenons that came in out of nowhere, had little-to-no major competition (Walking with Dinosaurs? Hobbit 2? Zzzz?), and impressed. Moana is sure to be very leggy in its own way, but I'm not quite sure if it'll make it to $400 million domestically. Ahead are some prime hits, like Disney's own Rogue One, Illumination's Sing, and maybe something else. I'm ready to be wrong on this one, though. One thing's for certain, I think... It'll breeze past the big three-oh-oh.

It's great to see directors Ron Clements and John Musker score a huge hit again. Their last three pictures either flopped or underperformed.

Sadly, I probably won't be seeing the film until next Friday due to plans and such. So far, the reception is outstanding and I've heard nothing but great things about it.

This situation will be the opposite of what happened in 2002. That year, Walt Disney Feature Animation readied two films: Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois' weirdo sci-fi family drama Lilo & Stitch, and Ron Clements and John Musker's sci-fi quasi-steampunk retrofuturistic adventure Treasure Planet. While Lilo hit big, Treasure Planet crashed and burned. A shame, because Treasure Planet - in my opinion - is a pretty good film.

In a way, this year is a teensy bit similar. We have one Ron & John movie in the autumn/holiday season, while the more experimental flick came out first - Zootopia. Zootopia cleared $1 billion, Moana could do it if it has the oomph worldwide. Imagine that! Disney Animation releasing two films in the same calendar year for the very first time in 14 years... And getting monstrously good results.

Give it time, I think we'll be hearing about what the duo are going to tackle next. The reason Moana arrived 7 years after their previous film is because it wasn't going to be their next. After the release of The Princess and the Frog, Ron and John wanted to adapt one of Terry Pratchett's Discworld stories - Mort. It had a lot of promise, but by late 2010, Disney couldn't quite secure the rights. Ron and John then pitched three ideas to John Lasseter, Lasseter okayed the Oceanic adventure...

Thanksgiving Gross Update...

Moana did quite well on Thanksgiving, though it fell a bit behind Frozen. Suffice to say, it still can make more than $85 million for the five-day...

I got to see footage of it today. Remember how I said I won't be able to see the full movie until next Friday at the earliest? Well, I'm currently down in Walt Disney World, and I checked out the roughly 15-minute preview at Disney Hollywood Studios. This alone got me more excited for the film than any of the trailers or TV spots, but it's no surprise, for marketing isn't made to get people like interested. It's worked so far, so can't complain there. Just a personal sidenote.

The wait - because life gets in the way sometimes - to see this one is going to be a little bit of a bummer, but I'm going to try my dardnest to see it as soon as possible!

Friday gross...

$21 million, a good $5 million behind Frozen. Not bad, not bad. The five-day should now be in the low 80s... Still #2, topping Toy Story 2. Three-day weekend gross should be in the high 50s...

The three-day...

$55 million estimated. $12 million less than Frozen, $20 million below Zootopia, just a million less than Big Hero 6. Very solid opening... Where could it land? Well, let's look at Tangled's multiplier. $200 million off of a $68 million five-day, that's 2.9x. If Moana does that, $234 million in the bag. If it plays like Toy Story 2 did back in 1999, we get $248 million. Cool, cool.

Worst case scenario, I think, would be Good Dinosaur legs. If it plays out like that Pixar film, which is doubtful at this point, it would still pocket a fine $181 million domestically. I've seen some here and there worry that Moana isn't cutting it. No worries, it's doing quite fine!

Since parts of the world aren't getting Moana for a little while, it's only at $16 million overseas. Like most fall Disney Animation and Pixar releases, the international roll-out will be staggered. Poor Japan, as usual, has to wait til March to get it. I'm so sorry for reminding you of this...

Elsewhere in animation land...

Trolls eased, thankfully. Down 40%, now at $135 million domestically and $291 million worldwide. It's little by little climbing. No numbers for Storks yet, as that's pretty much on its way out.

Actuals

Moana actually made a little bit more than Big Hero 6 for the three-day. $56.6 million, barely eked by $82 million for the five-day. Great launch! Make Trolls' 40% dip 39%. $291 million worldwide, c'mon pick up some steam!

The Secret Life of Pets and Storks are pretty much on their last few legs, the latter looks to make around $180 million worldwide when all is said and done. The former inches up on $875 million worldwide.

1 comment:

  1. Moana opening on VHS for you:

    https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLqEAftbzeo6UvB1lvpr4LA-DwGDlgLTgO

    ReplyDelete