Saturday, December 3, 2016

Battling a Seastorm: 'Moana' To Hold On Well

This is the weekend where most of the big movies take a real tumble.

Moana, like the other recent November/holiday season Disney Animation films before it, was always going to drop over 50% this weekend. Let's look at the historical examples...

Tangled scored $68 million for its five-day Thanksgiving debut back in 2010, $48 million for the three-day. The second weekend gross was a 55% drop from the three-day. For Frozen, it was 53%. Both very solid, when things could've been worse. Live-action blockbusters usually get hit harder this weekend, with 60%+ drops.

Wreck-It Ralph and Big Hero 6, by contrast, opened at the beginning of November in their respective years. They tumbled 58% and 57% on their first post-Thanksgiving five-days, respectively.

Moana's numbers yesterday suggest that it will also dip lightly, and brave the oncoming wave. I always wondered why the first post-Thanksgiving weekend 3-day is the big drop off... Perhaps audiences shifting to holiday shopping and getting ready for the festivities? Or is it because of Thanksgiving break ending, and that taking away from the weekend?

Apparently it's on track for a $30 million+ weekend, a magnificent 47% drop... Frozen made $31 million on its second weekend... The legs are going to be quite strong for this one. Makes me wonder if it'll go a little above the amount I originally thought it would make in the end. At the end of the weekend, Moana should be well past $120 million. At that point in time, Frozen was up to $134 million.

Trolls looks to ease as well, projections say a roughly 54% dip is in play, putting the film above Kung Fu Panda 3's domestic gross from earlier this year. Both are doing fine in the top ten while blockbusters and smaller pics come and go.


Dropping an estimated 49.9% (!!!), Moana has collected $28 million for the weekend. It is now up to $119 million here, and it opened in a few key territories this weekend, so the worldwide gross is up to $177 million. Like most November-release Disney animated films, it'll be a slow crawl because many markets don't get this picture until the end of the first quarter of next year.

Trolls dropped 56%, made $4 million, it's up to $141 million here and $296 million everywhere. Really seems to be stalling overseas for some reason.

The Secret Life of Pets still lingers, with $368 million domestically and $874 million worldwide. Walt Disney Animation Studios won't be the only big studio having a banner year, because Sing is poised to do very, very well.

No word on the storks just yet...

To be updated...

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