Sunday, June 11, 2017

Weekend Box Office Report and Future Thoughts

Despite the big blockbusters, Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie clings onto the Top 3.

Its 48% fall isn’t bad nor is it great, it now sits at $44 million domestically and just a few millions more worldwide. Its release schedule is also very limited. It is indeed hitting some major markets at the end of July and into October (such as the UK, Germany, Brazil, and France), but not as many territories as big tentpoles usually do.

Anyways, it should be in the clear if it makes over $95 million worldwide. Domestically, it’ll probably top out at about $60-70 million. DreamWorks saved their rears with this one, really. Again, does this picture set a precedent?

DreamWorks’ bigger picture, The Boss Baby, fell a great 14%, it now sits at $171 million here and $487 million everywhere. At this point in its run, it’s trailing a tiny bit behind Home. $175 million+ is still in eyesight.

It’s been a relatively quiet year for feature animation. The Lego Batman Movie was a decent-sized success, The Boss Baby kinda broke out worldwide, whereas the modestly-budgeted Smurfs: The Lost Village made its money back and Spark appeared for a split-second. Captain Underpants is doing okay... And to think a review of Captain Underpants said that the animation “genre” is “overcrowding” the marketplace. Some people just don’t get it, do they?

Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3 ought to speed things up a bit... From here on out, things should be steady...

The Emoji Movie, whether we love it or hate it, will probably do decent numbers. $100 million is doable, but it all depends on whether it's surprisingly good or expectedly awful...

The Nut Job 2’s sky is the first film’s gross. Lego Ninjago will land somewhere between Storks ($70 million) and maybe $120 million. My Little Pony? I honestly have no idea at this point. Maybe the fanbase could propel it, maybe not. Sub-$70 million domestically for now. The Star should land somewhere above $50 million, not sure how much higher it can go. Sony outsourced it to Cinesite, it’s probably going to come back with a sub-$60 million budget.

Coco? I’m confident that Pixar's new original won’t perform like The Good Dinosaur did, and maybe it could break out and be the next $200 million-grossing Pixar original, but I’ll be cautiously optimistic for the time being. Oddly enough, I kinda see a Ratatouille-esque run for this one.

Ferdinand will either play like Hipmunks 4 (which opened against Force Awakens, much like how this is opening against The Last Jedi) or will disappear. Fox ought to prop it up as something more than just kiddie-counterprogramming. If Charming somehow gets a good-sized release here, it’ll probably disappear quicker than Spark did.

Maybe this is the year of the small, non-tentpole animated feature? Outside of Despicable Me 3, Coco, and Cars 3, everything else that's not out yet could possibly miss $100 million domestically. What a contrast from 2016 and its bevy of big hulking box office titans!

Let the summer games continue!

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