Sunday, June 25, 2017

Weekend Box Office Report: 'Cars 3' Tires Flatten a Bit [UPDATE]


The Autobots have briefly stolen Lightning's lightning...

Though not much, because Transformers: The Last Knight posted a relatively terrible 3-day gross for the franchise. Its five-day ($68 million, below the first movie's unadjusted opening weekend gross!) is even more troubling, but six and more are coming because worldwide numbers are going to save the franchise's rear.

Anyways, Cars 3 slid a rather shocking 53%, and whether it's in 2nd or 3rd place remains to be seen because the estimates for both this and Wonder Woman are the same exact number... Hovering around $25 million. A photo-finish, it seems. We'll know on Monday...

Monday actuals: Wonder Woman wins the photo-finish, Cars 3 made $24 million for the weekend, down 55%...

Now for a summer Pixar release, that's not quite a good drop, but before we race to hyperbole... Some Pixars seem to tumble in the 40% range and then stabilize afterwards. Pixar films typically open higher than other animated releases out there, the ones that open lower tend to have less severe drops on their respective second weekends... so we shall see how Cars 3 will fare in the coming weeks. Maybe it could drop a fine 30-35% or so, if Despicable Me 3 doesn't really cut into it.

Outside of that film and possibly Spider-Man: Homecoming, what other competition does Cars 3 really have? With a Monsters University multiplier (3.2x), the film still grosses more than $170 million stateside, which is fine but not spectacular. The real weight needs to pulled worldwide, and it's not out everywhere just yet. $41 million in the can in other territories, it needs some time. Cars 3 goes back to the American-ness of the first movie, so $218 million overseas - which the first one pulled in without 3D, IMAX, the worldwide market of today, etc. - is the base here. I think it could get to $250 million, but nowhere near the $370 million the previous, globetrotting film generated.

Cars 3, unlike other behemoth Pixar sequels, cost $175 million to make. They were a little smart with this one, budget-wise, because of the film's content and its overseas prospects. Even if it isn't a no-holds-barred blockbuster, I'm sure Disney won't fret, because toys/merch sales (the bane of your existence, I know) will more than make up for that. If anything, it won't ensure a fourth film, not that one's needed. I think with this series, it ought to continue through biannual specials or shorts, because I want to see more of a certain someone.


Elsewhere, DreamWorks/Mikros' Captain Underpants weathered the weekend with a fine 40% drop, it's now sitting at $65 million here and $71 million everywhere. The film's international rollout will not be a big one, but it will open in some key markets in the coming months: The UK, Australia, France, Germany, and Brazil. Say it tops out at $80 million here and makes around $40 million overseas, that's 3x the budget. Can it make it there? I certainly hope it can. Again, spending $38 million on it saved DreamWorks big time...

The Boss Baby lingers, rising 2% and ending up at $173 million here. International totals have yet to be updated, so for now it stays at $489 million around the world. It's still trailing Home by a hair. (Monday update: $493 million worldwide.)

I also want to talk about how The Mummy, the start of Universal's Dark Universe, is doing...

Apparently this thing is a big ol' flop... Ya know, a big bomb that made $343 million worldwide against at $125 million budget. That's more than 2 1/2x the budget, but apparently there's a $95 million loss incoming, something about the marketing making the thing actually cost $345 million or whatever. I really don't know, educate me. Anyways, what does The Mummy - aside from VFX - have to do with feature animation?

Anubis. Blue Sky's long-gestating adaptation of the Bruce Zick-written Egyptian underworld adventure...


Penciled in for March 23, 2018, it's actually not in any form of production, it hasn't even been greenlit by 20th Century Fox. Blue Sky's next animated film is Pigeon Impossible in early 2019. Mr. Zick told me that Fox was waiting to see how The Mummy would do before giving this movie the go-head, all because they assumed for a while that a mummy movie would be too risky... Because some terrible movie about ancient Egypt happened to bomb a few years back. Forget that it was a whitewashed, generic-looking swords-n-sandals movie no one wanted to see, Gods of Egypt (remember that?) apparently bombed because it was about ancient Egypt.

That conventional wisdom. So smart, ain't it?

Anyways, Fox's reactions to Gods of Egypt's poor box office performance has held Anubis back from being a thing. If The Mummy had taken off, then Fox would've probably said yes to this thing... But since The Mummy isn't doing well in the eyes of the industry, I guess we can kiss Anubis goodbye. Typical... The movie I'm anticipating the most from a certain animation studio gets canned: This, DreamWorks' Larrikins, Disney Animation's space race movie, possibly Sony/Genndy Tartakovsky's Can You Imagine?, the list goes on... What else is new?

Anyways, The Mummy looks to stop somewhere at $400 million worldwide. Pirates of the Caribbean: Salazar's Revenge closes in on $700 million worldwide, ensuring that it isn't the final chapter for Disney's live-action/VFX franchise, so something will at least break up the monotony of live-action remakes. Wonder Woman's performance is something of a miracle, and hopefully it, the movie's quality, and the recent shufflings get WB/DC on the right track.

What say you on all this box office stuff?

4 comments:

  1. With how much do you think is Cars 3 gonna end it's worldwide run ?

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    1. I'm thinking, like I said above, the base is $218m - the gross the first movie made overseas. 'Cars 2' topped out at $370m overseas alone, so I think somewhere between there. $250 million seems like a good amount, combined with $170m+ domestically, and you end up with somewhere above $420m worldwide.

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  2. Ah man, that sucks about Anubis 😩

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