2015 Domestic Box Office Predictions

So what is this? Well, around autumn or so of every year since 2010, I make box office predictions that pertain to the following year. For instance, in late 2013, I made a set domestic box office predictions for 2014. My rule is that I don't alter these predictions in any way after December 31st, and then I see how right or wrong I was once all the movies come out…

I make an exception for films whose release dates have been changed after December 31st... Those will be marked with an asterix. *

It's fun to do it this way because with some movies, you have no idea how they'll perform since trailers aren't even out or the information on them is minimal at the moment. Sometimes, movies move. 2014 had lost a lot films… Even in 2014!

So I'll be making predictions like these for the films I think will dominate at the box office in 2015. The year itself is poised to be a gargantuan year for box office… It'll be interesting to see what this all looks like by spring/summer 2016! What predictions will I get right? Which ones will I get wrong? What are your predictions?

First Posted: 9/5/2014


#1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Walt Disney Pictures / Lucasfilm / Bad Robot
December 18, 2015

Opening Weekend: $231 million
Domestic Box Office: $776 million
Overseas Box Office: $1,001 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,777 million

At first glance, this seems like an insane prediction. It most likely is… I'll probably come back here next December and be thinking, "What was going through my head when I wrote this???"

But here's the thing… It's Star Wars Episode VIIStar Wars Episode VII! The opening weekend record, I think, is in the bag with this one. You'll have the fans, new fans, general audiences, everyone… Regardless of how J.J. Abrams' outing turns out, the hype will be massive. Way too big, and Disney will put everything they've got into this. This is arguably the "event" of 2015, more so than the likes of Avengers: Age of Ultron. Again… It's Star Wars.

If trailers indicate that this start of the new trilogy is nothing like the prequels, I'm sure audiences will be there opening weekend. And when I say that, I mean everyone from the big fans to casual moviegoers. Again, there's a whole new generation of Star Wars fans too. Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith opened in 2005, kids born that year will be ten when this comes out.

Also, Revenge of the Sith opened with a then-huge $108 million back in 2005. No 3D or IMAX 3D to bolster it or anything, and it had the poorly-received prequels behind it. It still opened big. That opening adjusts to $137 million today, and that film's domestic gross adjusts to $483 million. I don't see this grossing below that. The Phantom Menace's 1999 domestic gross adjusted is $688 million. I honestly think $550 million is the floor for the film, and if it's really good or better than decent, expect it to garner the holiday legs. Something around, maybe, a 4x multiplier… It depends on the quality of the film. If it clicks with fans and audiences alike, it'll hang on like crazy, especially with minimal competition for months.

ACTUALS (as of 3/24/2016)
Opening Weekend: $247 million
Domestic Box Office: $932 million
Overseas Box Office: $1,127 million
Worldwide Box Office: $2,060 million  

#2. Avengers: Age of Ultron
Walt Disney Pictures / Marvel Studios
May 1, 2015

Opening Weekend: $225 million
Domestic Box Office: $630 million
Overseas Box Office: $1,022 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,652 million

Pre-Trailer Thoughts (August 2014)...

Avengers: Age of Ultron is very tricky to predict, to be honest… Here's why…

Let's flash back to 2002 when Spider-Man came out. It was fresh, new, it arguably wasn't like any comic book film or blockbuster we've seen before. Finally, one of Marvel's most iconic and popular characters getting a big-screen adaptation that promised good action, a good story, the whole shebang. Back in May of 2002, this giant opened with a then-record $114 million (adjusts to $161 million today) and grossed a gargantuan $403 million, which made it one of the highest grossing films of all time back in the day. Today, that total adjusts to $566 million!

So two years later, Spider-Man 2 comes out. You'd think with all the hype, it'd make the first film's $403 million domestic total look like nothing! Well, it opened strong given its Fourth of July week release (as opposed to the first Friday of May), but the movie finished up with $373 million. A grand total, but $30 million less than its predecessor. What made movie #1 bigger? My theory is that when something new and fresh like the first Spider-Man comes along, everyone goes to the theater. I'm talking the masses, plus people who normally don't go to movie theaters. They make an exception for something fresh like Spider-Man. In other words, an event. It's also why I think on the animated side of things, The Lion King's follow-up - no matter what film it would be - was never going to hit that film's $312 million gross back in the mid 90s. Ditto Pixar and Finding Nemo, that film was an event that everyone raced to go see. The next film, no matter how good, just wouldn't replicate that. Few movies have all that success cut out for them, the stars lining up if you will…

Other examples also include Star Wars (The Empire Strikes Back didn't make as much, again the first film being fresh and new at the time - the event everyone went to go see) and Jurassic Park, among others…

The Avengers, I believe, was just that: The novelty of seeing the already popular Iron Man and several superheroes from different movies/backgrounds onscreen together, along with other factors. Everyone went, even those who don't normally hit the flicks. It, like Spider-ManStar WarsJurassic Park, et al satisfied a majority of the people who went to go see it. Most movies that open with over $100 million are lucky to even score a 3x multiplier, Avengers with its record-breaking $207 million opening scored a 3x multiplier. The stars lined up for that film…

Which leads me to believe that Avengers: Age of Ultron - no matter how good it may be - might not make that much more than its predecessor. Summer competition is there too, something Star Wars Episode VII doesn't have to face. Summer 2015 is loaded with biggies, and you can bet audiences will be wanting to check those out too. Spider-Man 2 was mostly considered to be a much better film than its predecessor, but it didn't make as much. Those who normally don't go to theaters that much probably felt that they got their fix with the first film, and perhaps don't see the sequel as a must-see event. They'd probably just wait for the home media release.

I do think, however, that Avengers: Age of Ultron's opening weekend gross will eclipse the original's. I just don't think the legs will be as super-strong, regardless of how excellent the film may turn out to be. But I have it slightly above the first film, for the staying power should still be strong nonetheless and will get the film past the $623 million mark thanks to the robust opening weekend.

Post-Trailer Thoughts (October 2014)

Okay… Just wow…

Now, Marvel intended to premiere the Avengers: Age of Ultron teaser during Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. a couple weeks back. However, the teaser leaked somehow and it became so huge that Marvel caved and released an official version of said teaser. It's now collected millions and millions of views…

I think the opening weekend record is going to be broken, but I'm going to stick with my long-term prediction. I think the multiplier will be strong if the movie is great (which it most likely will be), but in the end I don't see it making too much more than the first film.

Opening Weekend: $191 million
Domestic Box Office: $459 million
Overseas Box Office: $943 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,402 million
(Close Date: October 8, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Perhaps The Avengers over performed back in 2012, it was that film that everyone and their brother goes and sees. The phenomenon that even people who don't normally hit the theaters go to, no different from films like E.T., The Lion King, Titanic, The Dark Knight, Avatar, and so on. Still, the fact that this sequel managed to open close to the original is saying something, but legs certainly weren't all that great. Overseas, I thought it would soar too, but it still made quite a lot. It's not too far off from my prediction, but I would've reckoned that a sequel to something so huge would've gone much higher overseas. Still, it made serious bank. (7/12/2015)

#3. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2
Lionsgate / Color Force
November 20, 2015

Opening Weekend: $161 million
Domestic Box Office: $402 million
Overseas Box Office: $587 million
Worldwide Box Office: $989 million

(Pre-Mockingjay Thoughts)

I think this series will keep going up and up on opening weekend. The first Hunger Games, a March release, opened with a massive unprecedented $152 million. Catching Fire didn't open that much higher though, but $158 million is still massive. I have a feeling Mockingjay, Part 1 will sort of pull a Deathly Hallows, Part 1 and gross a significantly bigger amount on its opening weekend (somewhere around $160-165 million). Then the final part will rise from there, scoring the series' biggest opening. Legs should be about the same, too. (This prediction had $172 million as the opening weekend, as of 11/27/2014, I have changed it)

(Post-Mockingjay Thoughts)

Okay, wow... Mockingjay, Part 1 didn't increase from the last two nor did it stay flat. It shocked and grossed a rather unexpected $121 million as opposed to something in the $140-150 million range. Legs should be on the lower side, given the reception of the film. It's been speculated that this new entry in the series opened lower because the book itself isn't very well-received, thus not all moviegoers and fans weren't going to shell out bucks to see a full part based on a book they didn't think was all that good.

Not sure how this will affect Part 2, to be honest. I think we'll see an increase since it's the final installment of the film series, regardless of what people think of the Mockingjay book. If Part 1 could still pass $120 million on opening weekend, then this one should definitely go higher. I think it'll end up slightly topping the opening weekend totals The Hunger Games and Catching Fire took in. Legs should be the same as the other films in the series, too. A roughly 2.5x multiplier.

Opening Weekend: $101 million
Domestic Box Office: $281 million
Overseas Box Office: $371 million
Worldwide Box Office: $652 million
(Close Date: February 25, 2016)  

#4. Furious 7
Universal / Original Film / One Race Films
April 3, 2015

Opening Weekend: $160 million
Domestic Box Office: $379 million
Overseas Box Office: $641 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,020 million

Since the release of 2009's Fast & Furious, the series' grosses have been going up and up and up… Fast Five was a smash, Fast & Furious 6 was even bigger. Furious 7 will be the series' peak, and also… I think the Heath Ledger effect will drive the film's huge opening weekend. The Dark Knight, without a doubt, was destined to gross over $100 million on its opening weekend given how good Batman Begins was and the overall hype for the film. It looked amazing, it looked like a must-see event. Ledger's death added to that, everyone went to go see it.

Paul Walker's death, without a doubt, will effect the film. People, especially longtime fans of the series, will rush to see the final Fast & Furious film that Walker was in. Legs should be just like the previous film, though. It'll still be enough to get it over the $300 million mark. $160 million seems reasonable because Fast & Furious movies are always in 2D, and I doubt this final installment will be in 3D. The biggest opening for a 2D-only film is 2012's The Dark Knight Rises, with The Dark Knight and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire a close second.

Opening Weekend: $147 million
Domestic Box Office: $351 million
Overseas Box Office: $1,160 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,511 million
(Close Date: June 18, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Was pretty close on the opening, I had a strong feeling that a Ledger effect of sorts would make this film open much bigger than the previous installments, while many analysts saw a slight spike in the opening weekend gross. Legs were what I expected as well, but what I did not expect was that massive overseas total! Especially for a film that was in IMAX 2D, there was no 3D. Fantastic haul all around! (7/12/2015)

#5. Inside Out
Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar
June 19, 2015

Opening Weekend: $79 million
Domestic Box Office: $343 million
Overseas Box Office: $422 million
Worldwide Box Office: $765 million

Pixar's return to a truly creative, wildly original out-of-the-box concept since 2009's Up, though familiar fairy tale Brave had no problem on opening weekend back in 2012. The Pixar name alone ensures a $60 million+ opening (even the dreaded Cars 2 opened with over $60 million), since the studio has garnered the trust of adult audiences and movie fans. More so than most other studios, who often settle for $40-55 million opening weekends. Inside Out, I think, is locked to gross over $60 million on opening weekend… But I think it'll go even higher than that.

No original Pixar film has went higher than $70 million on opening weekend, though if you adjust Up's $68 million take from 2009, you get $74 million. Finding Nemo and The Incredibles' adjusted openings ($94m and $92m respectively) aren't worth bringing up, for they came out during the CG fad of the late 90s/early-to-mid 2000s. We haven't seen original non-sequel computer animated films gross around their adjusted totals on opening weekend since. But I think Inside Out has a chance to really make a splash, given the concept and the Pixar name. Legs should be similar to Up's, ensuring a big $300 million+ domestic gross.

Opening Weekend: $90 million
Domestic Box Office: $356 million
Overseas Box Office: $495 million
Worldwide Box Office: $851 million
(Close Date: December 10, 2015)

#6. Jurassic World
Universal / Amblin / Legendary Pictures
June 12, 2015

Opening Weekend: $98 million
Domestic Box Office: $323 million
Overseas Box Office: $501 million
Worldwide Box Office: $824 million

Adjusted, the not-very-well-received Jurassic Park III opened with $72 million and finished up with $259 million, meaning that it pulled a 3.5x multiplier. Back in 2001 that was average, today it's great considering that release windows are a lot shorter these days. Anyways, Jurassic World - directed by Safety Not Guaranteed's Colin Trevorrow and scripted by Derek Connelly - looks to be a return to form for the series. If it's anywhere near as good as the original, it's sure to hang on at the box office. The opening, I think, is inevitably going to be large. You could say the opening total will be dinosaur-sized!

Opening Weekend: $208 million
Domestic Box Office: $652 million
Overseas Box Office: $1,016 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,668 million
(Close Date: November 19, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: I'll do my write-up super early on for this film. Way off. WAY WAY OFF. I had no idea a fourth Jurassic Park film would open so well, let alone this big! Oh man, this prediction is perhaps the biggest miss of all of these. Bravo to Universal, as of this writing that $204 million gross is an estimate. It could very well top The Avengers' $207 million opening and take the crown! (6/14/2015)

Columbia / MGM / Eon Productions
November 6, 2015

Opening Weekend: $102 million
Domestic Box Office: $321 million
Overseas Box Office: $856 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,177 million

Skyfall opened big back in 2012 and hung on like crazy, audiences loved it. The 24th Bond should open even higher, as the series seems to really be gaining momentum. The multiplier for this, I think, will be a little weaker given the higher opening, but still very strong.

ACTUALS (as of 3/24/2016)
Opening Weekend: $70 million
Domestic Box Office: $200 million
Overseas Box Office: $680 million
Worldwide Box Office: $880 million

#8. The Good Dinosaur
Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar
November 25, 2015

Opening Weekend: $74 million
Domestic Box Office: $315 million
Overseas Box Office: $454 million
Worldwide Box Office: $769 million

Like Inside Out, it's another original idea and who doesn't love dinosaurs? Pixar + Dinosaurs is a recipe for a smash hit, and of course it's poised to open big ($60m or higher) because of the Pixar name. It has more competition to face than Inside Out, namely Star Wars: The Force Awakens, an event that could put the breaks on the dinosaurs… But you never know, Pixar's film could still stay in the game. As long as it ticks with audiences like the other Pixar films have, it's all set - Star Wars or no Star Wars.

ACTUALS (as of 3/24/2016)
Opening Weekend: $39 million
Domestic Box Office: $122 million
Overseas Box Office: $198 million
Worldwide Box Office: $321 million

#9. Minions
Universal / Illumination Ent.
July 10, 2015

Opening Weekend: $74 million
Domestic Box Office: $287 million
Overseas Box Office: $625 million
Worldwide Box Office: $912 million

I think there will a little dip for this film, though the Minions are arguably the main reason why both Despicable Me films were successful, not the likes of Gru and the other characters. But will the older audiences that made Despicable Me 2 such a big smash (contrary to popular belief, kids and families aren't the only reason why something like Despicable Me 2 made $368 million domestically last year) care to see another round of minions? Or will this one just appeal to the family audiences? I think it'll retain some of the franchise's box office power, but it won't set the world on fire. But with a great teaser behind it already, it might just surprise...

Opening Weekend: $115 million
Domestic Box Office: $336 million
Overseas Box Office: $823 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,159 million
(Close Date: December 17, 2015)

#10. Ted 2
Universal / Fuzzy Door / MRC
June 26, 2015

Opening Weekend: $88 million
Domestic Box Office: $268 million
Overseas Box Office: $449 million
Worldwide Box Office: $717 million

Ted 2 isn't easy to predict. It all depends on the quality, but even then, if it's terrible, it could still do well. I liken Ted to The Hangover. A small-budgeted R-rated comedy, one that opened pretty well and held on like crazy. The Hangover took in $44 million back in the summer of 2009, and then had insane legs, climbing its way up to a $277 million domestic gross! A 6.2x multiplier! Ted performed similarly in 2012. $54 million opening, made $218 million in the end, 4x multiplier. Ted was even big internationally! Especially in Japan! It took in $330 million overseas alone, so this film is locked to make McFarlane and co. big big bucks.

Anyways, back to The Hangover. The second film increased on opening weekend, taking $85 million over the 3-day weekend. Legs, however, weren't very strong. A 2.9x multiplier was scored, but it was enough to get the movie up to $254 million domestically. Obviously audiences weren't thrilled that time around, much like the critics. If that film was as good as the first, it probably would've easily cleared $300 million domestically.

Worst-case scenario: Ted 2 is a Hangover II-level disappointment, then it opens huge but has weak legs. Best-case scenario, it's a worthy follow-up and audiences flock back to it. We have no idea if it'll be good or not, in fact many weren't sure if Ted was going to be anything special.

Opening Weekend: $33 million
Domestic Box Office: $81 million
Overseas Box Office: $134 million
Worldwide Box Office: $215 million
(Close Date: August 27, 2015)

#11. Cinderella
Walt Disney Pictures
March 13, 2015

Opening Weekend: $73 million
Domestic Box Office: $249 million
Overseas Box Office: $461 million
Worldwide Box Office: $710 million

With Maleficent having stronger legs than Oz the Great and Powerful, the rehash fairy tale trend isn't stopping any time soon. Fairy tales in general are now all the rage. Expect this to open big and hang on. Since Cinderella is iconic, and this film is from Disney, is rated PG and such, it should hold on quite well and be another smash hit for them.

Opening Weekend: $67 million
Domestic Box Office: $201 million
Overseas Box Office: $341 million
Worldwide Box Office: $542 million
(Close Date: September 17, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Aside from a bump thanks to double-bill showings with Avengers: Age of Ultron and not losing theaters, Cinderella's legs were certainly closer to Oz's than Maleficent's. I was close on the opening weekend, far off on the overseas total. I would've thought with fairy tales' universal appeal, the fx, and whatnot that it would be huge worldwide. Much like Maleficent, but I guess Maleficent had something this film didn't with audiences. (5/9/2015)

#12. The Peanuts Movie
20th Century Fox / Blue Sky Studios
November 6, 2015

Opening Weekend: $55 million
Domestic Box Office: $214 million
Overseas Box Office: $277 million
Worldwide Box Office: $491 million

Here's a strange thought… The Peanuts Movie opening with $55 million. Why not? If the awful-looking Alvin and the Chipmunks movie that insults the Chipmunks name could open with over $40 million back in 2007 without 3D or anything, then why can't an animated movie based on the iconic, classic comic strip do the same? The Peanuts Movie, from everything we've seen and heard, looks to respect the source material and actually deliver an entertaining movie. I think it'll open well and hold on, like most animated films do, and surprise us all - becoming Blue Sky's highest grossing film domestically.

ACTUALS (as of 3/20/2016)
Opening Weekend: $45 million
Domestic Box Office: $130 million
Overseas Box Office: $116 million
Worldwide Box Office: $246 million

#13. Ant-Man
Walt Disney Pictures / Marvel Studios
July 17, 2015

Opening Weekend: $78 million
Domestic Box Office: $209 million
Overseas Box Office: $253 million
Worldwide Box Office: $462 million

Out of all of Marvel Studios' MCU films, Ant-Man has gotten the most media scrutiny in terms of negativity. After Edgar Wright walked from the project after a case of creative differences, it seems like the movie more and more becomes the next Lone Ranger / World War Z. The press will play up any slight hint of negativity that surrounds the movie's production, despite the fact that what they are emphasizing happens with every movie (i.e. the two minor writers being added to the film, happens with all films - they never get credit anyway, neither will these two). You won't hear the end of it, the press is going to try its hardest - and I mean hardest - to convince you that this movie is an oncoming train wreck.

Despite all that, Ant-Man will do just fine. It's coming right off of Avengers: Age of Ultron, the Marvel brand is trusted by audiences, and Guardians of the Galaxy proved that Marvel films introducing new faces will open just as well as their sequels. The lowest this goes on opening weekend is Thor Captain America numbers, but I don't see it coming close to Guardians of the Galaxy's opening weekend. That was really fresh, something really new and unique, plus it was like a second Avengers for audiences: It had five leads, it was a team movie. Ant-Man doesn't really have that, but it'll still open well and perform like most Marvel movies in terms of legs, and it is something fresh, new and arguably weird. You can bet Disney will market the daylights out of it and make it look awesome, despite the press' attempts to make it look awful…

Also, there are probably millions of casual fans looking forward to this who don't even know who Edgar Wright is or are unaware of the production problems.

Opening Weekend: $57 million
Domestic Box Office: $180 million
Overseas Box Office: $338 million
Worldwide Box Office: $518 million
(Close Date: December 17, 2015)

#14. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation *
Paramount / Skydance
July 31, 2015

Opening Weekend: $53 million
Domestic Box Office: $195 million
Overseas Box Office: $366 million
Worldwide Box Office: $561 million

Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol was a huge hit for one good reason: It was great. Why was it great? Genius Brad Bird directed it. Its opening weekend, however, was nothing special. Legs got it to $209 million domestically, because again, it was really, really good. The franchise seemed to have lost luster after the well-received Mission: Impossible III, hence four not opening with too much. But with four doing so well in the long run, what will come of the fifth film?

Christopher McQuarrie (who has worked with Tom Cruise many times) will direct the film, and I bet it'll open well because it'll be coming off of the last one. The goodwill, I think, will still be there. As long as they have something that rivals the Burj Khalifa climb, they'll have a good opener. And they do! Legs? Well, if the movie is anywhere near as good or as crowd-pleasing as Ghost Protocol, it'll hang on…

With a much more breathable release date (it was previously set for Christmas Day 2015, seven days after Star Wars: The Force Awakens) and an excellent trailer, it will open great and hang on.

Opening Weekend: $55 million
Domestic Box Office: $195 million
Overseas Box Office: $487 million
Worldwide Box Office: $682 million
(Close Date: October 29, 2015)

#15. Pan
Warner Bros. / Berlanti Productions
October 9, 2015

Opening Weekend: $60 million
Domestic Box Office: $173 million
Overseas Box Office: $224 million
Worldwide Box Office: $397 million

My original prediction (before it was moved) was very close to the final one, a $58 million opening and a $168 million finish. Now with the film pushed back, it could open a little higher. I think the opening is a bit tricky to predict because I think it'll boil down to the rating and the audience. Usually these gritty/darker live-action fairy tale movies open well. Outside of the Disney wheelhouse you had 2012's Snow White and the Huntsman, which opened with a good $55 million.

If this is a PG-13 film, I can see it opening with around that amount. With a PG, probably a gross close to $70 million. Legs should be decent, and worldwide it should rack up enough bucks.

Opening Weekend: $15 million
Domestic Box Office: $35 million
Overseas Box Office: $91 million
Worldwide Box Office: $126 million
(Close Date: January 7, 2016)

#16. Home
20th Century Fox / DreamWorks Animation
March 27, 2015

Opening Weekend: $39 million
Domestic Box Office: $160 million
Overseas Box Office: $218 million
Worldwide Box Office: $378 million

Home should have no problem on opening weekend. You never know with audiences sometimes, Mr. Peabody & Sherman looked like a generic kids flick to this blogger and it didn't open with too much. This looks like it offers more - aliens, space, Earth in the future, lots of colorful visuals, audiences might eat it up. I'm thinking it performs more like Croods, and less like Peabody and Turbo. It may strike a chord that something like Peabody didn't strike. Home also has pretty much all of April and May to itself, animated family film-wise. Blockbuster competition could be a slight problem once May rolls around, but not a big enough one to derail it. By that time, Home will have probably made it back. The next big animated release after it is Pixar's Inside Out, which currently opens at the very in mid-June. That'll give it enough time to grow strong legs.

Opening Weekend: $52 million
Domestic Box Office: $177 million
Overseas Box Office: $208 million
Worldwide Box Office: $385 million
(Close Date: September 10, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Thankfully my opening weekend prediction ended up being too low, for the film opened very well and had good legs that got it a satisfying domestic total. I was rather close on the overseas total, too. (7/12/2015)

#17. Terminator: Genisys
Paramount / Skydance / Annapurna
July 1, 2015

Opening Weekend: $55 million
Domestic Box Office: $154 million
Overseas Box Office: $267 million
Worldwide Box Office: $421 million

Considering that the last two Terminator films opened well enough, I can see this opening with around $55 million which puts it between Terminator 3 adjusted ($60 million) and Terminator Salvation adjusted ($46 million), plus Arnold Schwarzenegger is returning and it may be converted to 3D as well, boosting the numbers. However, I think this lines up. I don't expect the film be a massive blockbuster, the days of Terminator being such a hot property arguably ended in the early 90s.

Opening Weekend: $27 million
Domestic Box Office: $89 million
Overseas Box Office: $350 million
Worldwide Box Office: $440 million
(Close Date: September 17, 2015)

#18. The Divergent Series: Insurgent
Lionsgate / Summit Ent. / Red Wagon
March 20, 2015

Opening Weekend: $59 million
Domestic Box Office: $153 million
Overseas Box Office: $157 million
Worldwide Box Office: $310 million

I think the Divergent series will mostly stay flat when it comes to sequels, because the first one was a modest success but didn't quite set the box office on fire like The Hunger Games did. I don't expect the sequel to get a New Moon-sized bump, either.

Opening Weekend: $54 million
Domestic Box Office: $130 million
Overseas Box Office: $165 million
Worldwide Box Office: $295 million
(Close Date: July 9, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: I didn't think it would decrease, my assumption was that it would simply stay flat and do similar business. So, smaller opening, weaker legs. Makes one wonder how the next one will do. (5/17/2015)

#19. Tomorrowland
Walt Disney Pictures
May 22, 2015

Opening Weekend: $40 million
Domestic Box Office: $148 million
Overseas Box Office: $287 million
Worldwide Box Office: $435 million

Yet another out-on-a-limb prediction... Tomorrowland has always been tricky for me predict for a number of reasons.

Disney can be rather... Incompetent... When it comes to marketing live-action blockbusters. This has been a problem for them in the post-Pirates/Narnia years, starting in roughly 2010 when the company released two big tentpole-like pictures Prince of Persia and The Sorcerer's Apprentice, both filmed when Dick Cook was still Chairman. Then-new chairman Rich Ross gutted the Disney studio of its veteran execs and brought in several new ones, some of which weren't experienced enough and it showed. Persia and Sorcerer's Apprentice were terribly marketed and opened poorly.

The last straw for him and the head of the marketing was John Carter of Mars, a film that was essentially killed by the company. A film that seemingly deliberately sold poorly. The Lone Ranger was the next over budgeted tentpole pic, and I get the sense that Disney wanted to clean their hands of that film as well. Now, Disney live-action says no to films like that and is content with making live-action retellings of stories Disney adapted into the iconic animated classics. Look at how well Maleficent did, and you bet your boots Cinderella and The Jungle Book will do very well next year.

So... Will they pull the same crap with Tomorrowland? Maybe. Its teaser, while not bad, kind of failed to hook audiences, and that's the real kicker right there. Will its trailer fare better? It should, given what this film has in store. If they go the Interstellar route and show way too little, there will be a problem. Given the sort-of mystery box approach to the pre-teaser marketing, that may be the case... Or maybe not. If the trailer shows enough and it's stuff that gets audiences thinking, "I wanna see that!" Disney should be golden, and its release date is a good distance away from Avengers: Age of Ultron, plus Memorial Day weekend is ideal for a film like this. Its competition seems rather rote, too. I mean, c'mon. San Andreas? Spy?

Given that this film was directed and co-written by Brad Bird, it should hang on like mad after it opens. With Bird, you'll know it'll be something special. I also think that playing off of the well-known area of Disneyland and The Magic Kingdom could be enough to get audiences interested too, since it's familiar. But one thing is for certain, the next trailer better impress...

Opening Weekend: $33 million
Domestic Box Office: $93 million
Overseas Box Office: $115 million
Worldwide Box Office: $208 million
(Close Date: September 17, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Sadly an underperformer, even though my opening weekend prediction was close. My legs predictions, however, were rather far off. It seems like this one didn't really gel with audiences. Overseas it's just done okay, not bigger like I had thought... (7/12/2015)

#20. Hotel Transylvania 2
Sony Pictures Animation
September 25, 2015

Opening Weekend: $43 million
Domestic Box Office: $146 million
Overseas Box Office: $236 million
Worldwide Box Office: $382 million

I expect this to pull a Rio 2, unless the marketing implies that the sequel has a lot going for it. If not, then I predict it stays flat and doesn't make too much more than its predecessor stateside.

Opening Weekend: $48 million
Domestic Box Office: $169 million
Overseas Box Office: $299 million
Worldwide Box Office: $468 million
(Close Date: March 3, 2016)

#21. The Martian
20th Century Fox
October 2, 2015

Opening Weekend: $35 million
Domestic Box Office: $136 million
Overseas Box Office: $314 million
Worldwide Box Office: $450 million

Certainly an out-on-a-limb prediction given what's apparently going against it: Ridley Scott no longer being able to make box office gold (Exodus, yikes!), it being set on Mars, yadda yadda yadda. Mars movies have a weird stigma attached to them because a couple well-known movies set on Mars flopped. Well, John Carter of Mars was killed by corporate Disney (yeah, I went there) and Mars Needs Moms was something no one wanted to see. Mars Attacks! was not well received and no one wanted to see it. This story - based on a novel - on the other hand is like Cast Away but set on the red planet, it has a pretty strong cast, and Scott usually scores when he's doing sci-fi.

No marketing will show up for a while, I presume, as it's close to the end of the year as of this particular writing. The Martian, I think, has the potential to be a mini-Gravity. It'll open okay, but have strong legs all throughout the holiday. I have a strong feeling this will be good, given the fact that the very talented Drew Goddard is handling the script and again, the cast is good. Worldwide, I think it'll soar. Gravity and Interstellar did some fine business overseas, even John Carter did great business overseas! Can't see it going below $250 million overseas alone, to be honest.

ACTUALS (as of 3/17/2016)
Opening Weekend: $54 million
Domestic Box Office: $228 million
Overseas Box Office: $400 million
Worldwide Box Office: $629 million

#22. Bridge of Spies
Touchstone / Amblin
October 16, 2015

Opening Weekend: $26 million
Domestic Box Office: $125 million
Overseas Box Office: $236 million
Worldwide Box Office: $361 million

I can see this being a sort of Captain Phillips-style sleeper hit. It should open well, it's got a good cast, and it's Steven Spielberg. Spielberg's Tintin and War Horse both missed $100 million domestically back in 2011, but had stellar legs. His films usually have stellar legs anyways, so I can see it opening with a small amount and then garnering good word-of-mouth and possibly Oscar buzz. This is his first since Lincoln, which was a big success both critically and commercially, so this has a lot of potential.

Opening Weekend: $15 million
Domestic Box Office: $72 million
Overseas Box Office: $93 million
Worldwide Box Office: $165 million
(Close Date: March 10, 2016)

#23. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials
20th Century Fox / Temple Hill Entertainment
September 18, 2015

Opening Weekend: $42 million
Domestic Box Office: $122 million
Overseas Box Office: $254 million
Worldwide Box Office: $376 million

The Maze Runner was quite the little sleeper hit this year. It made over $100 million off of a $32 million opening, over 3x that amount. This multiplier is actually a lot stronger than recent young adult adaptations at the box office. Audiences seemed to have really enjoyed this, and the sequel is once again a September release so that'll benefit it greatly. I see a decent-sized increase here.

Opening Weekend: $30 million
Domestic Box Office: $81 million
Overseas Box Office: $230 million
Worldwide Box Office: $312 million
(Close Date: January 21, 2016)

#24. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge out of Water
Paramount Animation / Nickelodeon Movies
February 6, 2015

Opening Weekend: $38 million
Domestic Box Office: $121 million
Overseas Box Office: $99 million
Worldwide Box Office: $220 million

The first SpongeBob film's opening weekend adjusts to $42 million today, I don't see how this won't open with anywhere around that amount since the show is still running, and get this… The re-runs have consistently been Nickelodeon's highest rated program. With a lack of big family films between the Christmas rush of films (Big Hero 6Penguins) and March (when Home comes out) it should have better legs than its predecessor did. That went up against many family films and animated films back in the holidays of 2004. The IncrediblesNational TreasureLemony Snicket, to name a few… Even after Home hits, there's nothing until Paramount Animation's Monster Trucks… That opens late May!

Opening Weekend: $55 million
Domestic Box Office: $162 million
Overseas Box Office: $148 million
Worldwide Box Office: $311 million
(Close Date: May 28, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: I was thankfully way off on this, as this quite a big hit. Not only did it open very, very well (its ticket sales are very close to the first film's opening back in 2004), but it had decent legs and has made a good total. Overseas it did significantly better than I expected. Shows that SpongeBob is still a big deal. (5/17/2015)

#25. Fifty Shades of Grey
Universal / Michael de Luca Productions
February 13, 2015

Opening Weekend: $55 million
Domestic Box Office: $120 million
Overseas Box Office: $202 million
Worldwide Box Office: $322 million

This has always been a tough one for me to predict…

I think it's going to open big enough, it'll be one of those front loaded films where the fans will be there opening night and most of opening weekend, but then afterwards the film sinks like a stone. I think it'll have a pretty bad multiplier, plus its R rating might limit the audience. I'm sure there's probably a ton of teenage girls looking forward to this, but the ones without rides will have to sit this one out.

The books are also regarded as garbage, so who will this appeal to? I think the fans, and fans alone. No other moviegoers, I think, will show up.

Opening Weekend: $85 million
Domestic Box Office: $166 million
Overseas Box Office: $403 million
Worldwide Box Office: $569 million
(Close Date: May 7, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Even though it's not even a month into its run, I was way off here! I assumed that the audience for this film wouldn't be that, that big... Also, it exploded overseas... Yep, way off! (3/8/2015)

#26. Taken 3
20th Century Fox / EuropaCorp
January 9, 2015

Opening Weekend: $39 million
Domestic Box Office: $117 million
Overseas Box Office: $201 million
Worldwide Box Office: $318 million

Taken 2 had the surprise success of the original behind it, which propelled its very good $49 million opening back in October 2012… But the film disappointed and didn't have the same staying power the original had, but it still had sturdy enough legs to get the film up to a decent $139 million gross. Taken 3 looks to avoid the sin that the sequel committed (repeating what made the first film work), which may benefit it and get audiences back for another round of Liam Neeson ass-kicking. Neeson's still a draw, as his non-Taken actioners do solid business. Non-Stop anyone?

I expect the film to open below Taken 2, unless trailers indicate (Update: So far, there seems to be a fair amount of anticipation) that it'll be a definite must-watch and not "Eh, Taken 3", then the opening might be on par with the sequel. January's a good spot for it, too, since the original opened during that time. I think the legs will be a slight improvement too, though the final total is significantly below that of Taken 2's. The series, I believe, still has some juice in it.

Opening Weekend: $39 million
Domestic Box Office: $89 million
Overseas Box Office: $236 million
Worldwide Box Office: $325 million
(Close Date: May 7, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: I got the opening weekend spot-on, but the legs? Not so much. This is the first time a film in the series missed $100 million stateside, which shows that the reaction was certainly not very strong. My overseas prediction almost lines up. (3/8/2015)

#27. Pixels
Sony / 1492 Productions / Happy Madison
July 24, 2015

Opening Weekend: $36 million
Domestic Box Office: $115 million
Overseas Box Office: $196 million
Worldwide Box Office: $311 million

A bit tricky to predict, though it does have potential to be a surprise hit. Aside from Adam Sandler - given his track record - the cast is pretty impressive, the plot is a bit different from the usual summer blockbuster fare, and it could get a boost given the fact that the film involves classic arcade games. Sandler's recent successes were movies like Grown Ups, where he's with a big cast of other well-liked actors. Pixels stars the likes of Kevin James, Josh Gad, Peter Dinklage, Michelle Monaghan, among others.

I don't see it really breaking out, though. I can simply see it opening similarly to Grown Ups, and then hanging on from there.

Opening Weekend: $24 million
Domestic Box Office: $78 million
Overseas Box Office: $164 million
Worldwide Box Office: $243 million
(Close Date: November 8, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: While I wasn't too far off on the opening, the legs for this poorly-received film were still alright. Adam Sandler movies just happen to have that from time to time. (10/25/2015)

#28. Fantastic Four
20th Century Fox / Marvel Entertainment / Marv Films
August 7, 2015

Opening Weekend: $45 million
Domestic Box Office: $112 million
Overseas Box Office: $188 million
Worldwide Box Office: $300 million

Another one of 2015's wild cards, because we know very little about this film and Fox isn't telling us anything, at all. It's very strange, because this reboot is being met with a lot of skepticism. I initially was against it since it seemed like it was just Fox halfheartedly rushing out a rights grab, because the rights to the Fantastic Four characters would've gone back to Marvel/Disney this past September had production on a new film not commence.

Well the deadline has been met, apparently. It's all filmed, though we've seen nothing. It's been speculated that the movie has been entirely green-screened and filmed inside a studio (hence the lack of set photos), and may have an all-cosmic setting. Also, the film's current release date implies that just may be the case, since Marvel opened Guardians of the Galaxy on the first weekend of August this year to great success.

However, I think its opening might be affected by the previous entries. You'd be surprised how the stain of the last installment can last. Batman Begins opened with an okay amount back in 2005, as the bad taste from 1997's Batman & Robin lingered. Adjusted, 2008's The Incredible Hulk opened with $21 million less than the 2003 Ang Lee Hulk film. Adjusted, Fantastic Four and Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer made $71 million and $68 million respectively. With an Incredible Hulk-esque drop, you get an opening in the mid-to-high 40s range. I think that's how this will open, unless Fox really, really makes it look good...

Even if it turns out to be well-received, legs are tricky. Most superhero movies settle for roughy 2.5-2.7x multipliers, so with something like that, it won't go higher than $125 million. But it's possible that with a lower opening, good word of mouth will spread to people who didn't and probably wouldn't see it.

Opening Weekend: $25 million
Domestic Box Office: $56 million
Overseas Box Office: $111 million
Worldwide Box Office: $167 million
(Close Date: October 22, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Between the day I made this prediction and the release of this film, bad buzz accumulated everywhere. After the teaser dropped, it was a slow downhill roll from there. Then word got out on the production troubles and everything else, not only did it perform less than stellar, it seriously flopped. I wasn't expecting it to turn out so badly, because back in December, it seemed like everything was altogether with this controversial reboot... (10/25/2015)

#29. Mad Max: Fury Road
Warner Bros. / Village Roadshow / Kennedy Miller Mitchell
May 15, 2015

Opening Weekend: $40 million
Domestic Box Office: $111 million
Overseas Box Office: $147 million
Worldwide Box Office: $258 million

Oddly enough, I can see this being something of a dark horse. It is crammed between a lot of big competition, but Mad Max has been around for a while. Each films' grosses today put together make for a total that's under $100 million, but I can definitely see this doing well in a TRON: Legacy-esque way. Consider. TRON didn't set the box office on fire back in 1982, making around $33 million, which adjusted to $88 million in 2010, the year the sequel came out. The sequel did so well because the first film had a growing fan base and Disney put together a great-looking sci-fi epic whose aggressive marketing worked in the movie's favor.

If Warner Bros. does just that with this film, they could have a small hit on their hands. It's one of their only big tentpole films set to come out next summer (along with San Andreas), since their main heavy Batman v Superman ended up having to move to 2016. I can imagine them putting their all into this film, and the Comic-Con trailer wowed as well, but that doesn't mean much as always. The lack of Mel Gibson as Mad Max could hurt it, though.

Opening Weekend: $44 million
Domestic Box Office: $153 million
Overseas Box Office: $221 million
Worldwide Box Office: $374 million
(Close Date: September 24, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Definitely bigger than the dark horse I thought it would be. Opening was close, but legs were much stronger than I expected, along with the overseas total. (7/12/2015)

#30. Pitch Perfect 2
Universal / Gold Circle Films
May 15, 2015

Opening Weekend: $30 million
Domestic Box Office: $111 million
Overseas Box Office: $57 million
Worldwide Box Office: $168 million

Pitch Perfect was a very leggy hit, an unexpected September release that held on like crazy on top of getting good reception. I think the sequel will outgross it thanks to a bigger opening weekend, as this won't be a small release that later expands. However, legs won't be as great for obvious reasons.

Opening Weekend: $69 million
Domestic Box Office: $183 million
Overseas Box Office: $101 million
Worldwide Box Office: $284 million
(Close Date: July 30, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: I knew it would have a bigger opening but weaker legs, but I didn't expect the opening to be that big! Or the overseas total, even! (10/25/2015)

#31. The Intern
Warner Bros. / Annapurna
September 25, 2015

Opening Weekend: $24 million
Domestic Box Office: $100 million
Overseas Box Office: $132 million
Worldwide Box Office: $232 million

Director Nancy Meyer's track record consists of films that have scored huge multipliers. Like, bigger than 5x! Her more recent hits include It's Complicated, What Women Want, and Something's Gotta Give. All of which made over five times their respective openings. They were also all December releases, this is a rather unorthodox September release. Her films that missed $100 million still had strong legs.

I think It'll open with a decent amount and then grow legs, even though we have no idea who will be in it... But it seems like it's set to do ok.

Opening Weekend: $17 million
Domestic Box Office: $75 million
Overseas Box Office: $118 million
Worldwide Box Office: $194 million
(Close Date: January 7, 2016)


The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death (1/2/2015) - The Woman in Black had decent legs for a January horror film, or any recent horror film outside of The Conjuring. But 2 doesn't have Daniel Ratcliffe or anyone else from the original: $15m OW / $31m DOM / $41m OS / $72m WW

Actuals: $15m OW / $26m DOM
(Close Date: March 19, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Right on par with what I predicted. No overseas grosses, though.


Paddington (1/16/2015) - It doesn't seem like the Weinstein Company butchered this, and it's done well critically and box office-wise in the UK. Trailers are selling it as a cute romp (how well known is Paddington Bear here in the states? I honestly have no idea), so it could possibly pull a Gnomeo & Juliet. Maybe. When it opens, it'll be the first family film since Night the Museum part tres, which is currently showing strong staying power. No real competition until SpongeBob, either: $21m OW / $75m DOM / $119m OS / $194m WW

Actuals: $18m OW / $76m DOM / $183m OS / $259m WW
(Close Date: June 18, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: The film was the leggy hit I thought it would be, and it did much better overseas than I had expected. (4/12/2015)


Blackhat (1/16/2015) - A Legendary Pictures thriller. There doesn't seem to be too much anticipation, and it carries an R-rating so this will be one of those films that appeals specifically to adult audiences but not everyone else. Plus, the January release date implies that they don't expect a big hit out of this. I can see it being pretty leggy, though: $20m OW / $60m DOM / $143m OS / $203m WW

Actuals: $4m OW / $7 DOM / $9m OS / $17m WW
(Close Date: February 5, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Welp, I was waaaaaaay waaaaaaay off on this one. I assumed that a thriller starring Chris Hemsworth would do okay business at best but man... This really tripped out of the gate and collapsed! I guess we can chalk it up to poor marketing and people not buying Hemsworth as a hacker. (2/15/2015)


The Wedding Ringer (1/16/2015) - A comedy starring Josh Gad and Kevin Hart. Should open fine and have strong legs, also MLK weekend should give it a considerable boost: $27m OW / $81m DOM / $51m OS / $132m WW

Actuals: $20m OW / $64m DOM / $15m OS / $79m WW
(Close Date: April 5, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: This didn't have the legs I thought it would, though it still held up decently. I also overestimated its overseas potential, this arguably isn't the kind of film that will catch on anywhere else besides America. (3/8/2015)


Strange Magic (1/23/2015) - You can tell Disney has no confidence is this rather awful-looking film. Relegating it to the Touchstone label, giving it an awful release date, putting little into the marketing, etc. I figured I'd mention it because it is a wide release animated feature and well, ya know...: $6m OW / $15m DOM / $57m OS / $72m WW

Actuals (as of 4/16/2015): $5m OW / $12m DOM

Post-Release Thoughts: Performed just as I had expected. It could've made more than $12 million, but a few weeks in, Disney pulled it from many theaters and it had no legs after that. No worldwide release, either. (5/17/2015)


Jupiter Ascending (2/6/2015) - Like many a big-budgeted troubled production, the press has already written the obituaries for Jupiter Ascending. It's arguably 2015's John Carter of Mars/The Lone Ranger, a film that the movie world will convince you to think sucks and no one goes on opening weekend. However, it could open higher than the Wachowskis' last and have the same multiplier, plus it has some unique visuals to its credit: $28m OW / $78m DOM / $177m OS / $255m WW

Actuals: $18m OW / $47m DOM / $134m OS / $181m WW
(Close Date: May 7, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Overestimated this one, but it still had some legs even if they weren't good by any means. Overseas it did okay, a little behind what I predicted. (4/12/2015)


Seventh Son (2/6/2015) - Another delayed film that has its obituaries written. I can see it just doing meh results, I figured I'd mention it: $14m OW / $37m DOM / $112m OS / $149m WW

Actuals: $7m OW / $17 DOM / $93 million OS / $110m WW
(Close Date: March 19, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Wow, I overestimated this one, big time. Audience disinterest was extremely high for this one, though it expectedly did okay overseas, the current gross nearly lines up with what I predicted. (3/8/2015)


Kingsman: The Secret Service (2/13/2015) - Counter-programming against the female-skewing Fifty Shades of Grey, it could open well since it looks pretty damn good and most likely will have some staying power: $26 OW / $83m DOM / $90m OS / $173m WW

Actuals: $36m OW / $128m DOM / $275m OS / $403m WW
(Close Date: July 9, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Back then, I thought my predictions were too kind... I'm glad I was wrong, the film has surprised. It opened good enough but had very good legs, and is doing damn good business overseas. Way, way more than I expected! Happy to have gotten this prediction wrong, big time. (4/12/2015)


Focus (2/27/2015) - Looks like a small, sort of out-of-the-way release, though it could do decently. $16m OW / $59m DOM / $40m OS / $99m WW

Actuals: $18m OW / $53m DOM / $100m OS / $153m WW
(Close Date: May 7, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Opened close to what I predicted, the final total is also pretty close to what I predicted. Was way off on the overseas gross, though. Still, a small much-needed success for Will Smith before his career gets back on track next year. (4/12/2015)


Chappie (3/6/2015) - Interesting concept, Neill Blomkamp directing, but probably won't crack $100 million. It has a slight chance, though. Elysium almost made it there despite getting weaker reception than District 9: $24m OW / $75m DOM / $143m OS / $218m WW

Actuals: $13m OW / $31m DOM / $70m OS / $102m WW
(Close Date: May 3, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: This one got hit hard in the end, as it opened pretty badly and had poor legs. Overseas isn't really saving it either, although it could go up in the coming months. Way off on this one, I thought Blomkamp had a nearly Elysium-sized grosser with this. (4/12/2015)


Get Hard (3/27/2015) - Will Ferrell and Kevin Hart comedy. Could break $100 million, but it could also just miss it: $24m OW / $81m DOM / $48m OS / $129m WW

Actuals: $34m OW / $90m DOM / $15m OS / $106m WW
(Close Date: July 9, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Opened a little higher than I expected, but legs weren't as good as I assumed. Performed worse overseas than I had thought. (6/14/2015)


Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 (4/17/2015) - The first one was one of those surprise sleeper hits, and it was released in January of 2009, so it had a lot of room to breathe. However, are audiences going to be up for a second round of that? Especially 6 years after the first?: $22m OW / $73m DOM / $30m OS / $103m WW.

Actuals (as of 8/2/2015): $23 OW / $71m DOM / $36m OS / $107m WW

Post-Release Thoughts: Nearly spot-on with the overseas and worldwide grosses so far, and very close on the opening weekend and domestic total. (7/12/2015)


Hot Pursuit (5/8/2015) - Probably not a lock for $100m despite being from the director of The Proposal (whose other movies didn't fare as well), but you never know with comedies like these. Reese Witherspoon hasn't had a live action hit since 2008's Four Christmases, so I can only imagine how it will open: $18m OW / $57m DOM / $37m OS / $94m WW

Actuals: $13m OW / $34m DOM / $11m OS / $45m WW
(Close Date: July 30, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Close on the opening, way off of the finish and the overseas total. (7/12/2015)


San Andreas (5/29/2015) - Looks pretty generic from the trailer, and despite starring The Rock and having a lot of destruction, it'll probably do just okay. There isn't much to differentiate it from the other disaster flicks out there, plus it looks far too serious (Really, Warner Bros. marketing?): $26m OW / $65m DOM / $157m OS / $222m WW

Actuals: $54m OW / $155m DOM / $315m OS / $470m WW
(Close Date: October 15, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Wow, this one really took off. Opening was half the amount I predicted, and legs were okay. Overseas? That total alone stomps out the one I made for the overall worldwide gross. (7/12/2015)


Entourage (6/3/2015) - The show ran for a good seven years and got generally good reception, but it seems like the movie isn't very highly anticipated. I'm thinking of recent TV show-based films that did well, such as the first Sex in the City movie. I leave out things like Get Smart because those are essentially updates of classic TV shows. This comes off of a series that ended three years ago, so I think it has a little potential: $31m OW / $93m DOM / $97m OS / $190m WW

Actuals: $10m OW / $32m DOM / $12m OS / $44m WW
(Close Date: August 13, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Whoa! Another one I was way off on. I guess a lot of people treated this as a feature-length Entourage and figured "Why pay to watch that when I can see it on TV for free?" (7/12/2015)


Spy (6/5/2015) - If this is more typical Melissa McCarthy shtick, audiences will probably stay away for the most part. Tammy numbers: $19m OW / $64m DOM / $57m OS / $122m WW

Actuals: $30m OW / $110m DOM / $125m OS / $236m WW
(Close Date: October 8, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: It was originally on par with Tammy, but it spawned some impressive legs. It's doing way better than I thought overseas. I guess that's what happens when Melissa McCarthy acts in something that's actually good. (7/12/2015)


Insidious: Chapter 3 (6/5/2015) - Like the Paranormal Activity series, Insidious' first installment opened low but had strong legs for a horror film. Then two opened big ($40 million) but had terrible legs. I expect this to open lower (Paranormal Activity 3 opened higher than the second despite people not really liking the second), and have meh legs from there: $29m OW / $63m DOM / $72m OS / $135m WW

Actuals: $23m OW / $52m DOM / $57m OS / $109m WW
(Close Date: August 13, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Opened on par with my prediction, had similar legs. Almost there on the overseas gross. Business as usual horror movie performance. (10/25/2015)


Magic Mike XXL (7/1/2015) - Despite opening well, Magic Mike had weak legs at the box office. I expect this to open lower and finish with less than $100m. Not that it'll be any loss, for the film will probably cost as much as the previous one. Also, no Steven Soderbergh might hurt it: $29m OW / $78m DOM / $56m OS / $134m WW

Actuals: $12m OW / $66m DOM / $51m OS / $117m WW
(Close Date: September 24, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: I was thinking with the success of Magic Mike, the sequel would open well, but it puttered. It still had strong legs, though, given the Fourth of July frame it opened in. (10/25/2015)


Vacation (7/29/2015) - A National Lampoon revival. 1983's National Lampoon's Vacation adjusts to $158 million today, Christmas Vacation adjusts to $143 million. Animal House, I don't even need to say because it was massive in 1978. But of that was big for its time, and surely the retro crowd will see this... But anyone else? Who knows: $23m OW / $82m DOM / $50m OS / $132m WW

Actuals: $14m OW / $58m DOM / $45m OS / $104m WW
(Close Date: October 29, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Not quite the hit I thought it would be, it still did respectable business. (10/25/2015)


The Man from U.N.C.L.E. (8/14/2015) - I get the sense that Warner Bros. doesn't expect this to be big or anything, hence its original January 2015 release date. The August release date also seems out-of-the-way, so I'm guessing this will just do decently. Then again, Get Smart surprised us six years ago: $20m OW / $61 million DOM / $133m OS / $194m WW

Actuals: $13m OW / $45m DOM / $64m OS / $109m WW
(Close Date: October 22, 2015)

Post-Release Thoughts: Performed close to my expectations, but sadly wasn't the small hit that Warner Bros. needed. (10/25/2015)


London Has Fallen (10/2/2015) - The first one was a leggy success, this should open decently as well and do okay given its out-of-the-way release date: $27 OW / $77m DOM / $80m OS / $157mm WW
This film has moved to 2016.


Masterminds (10/9/2015) - A comedy starring Zack Galifianakis, Owen Wilson and Kristen Wiig. Apparently about an armored car. Might do okay: $22m OW / $77m DOM / $46m OS / $123m WW
This film has moved to 2016.


Crimson Peak (10/16/2015) - Not ruling this one out completely, but not too too many horror films nowadays top $100 million stateside, even good ones. Sure we've had a few Paranormal Activitys and The Conjuring, but nothing I think is guaranteed. That being said, it could surprise. It's from Guillermo del Toro and has a strong cast: $17m OW / $54m DOM / $58m OS / $112m WW

Actuals: $13m OW / $31m DOM / $42m OS / $74m WW
(Close Date: November 26, 2015)


Jem and the Holograms (10/23/2015) - Hard to say whether this 80s cartoon-based film will surprise or not: $12m OW / $32m DOM / $38m OS / $70m WW

Actuals: $1m OW / $2m DOM
(Close Date: November 5, 2015)


Victor Frankenstein (11/25/2015) - Rather than being a straight-up horror film, this take on Frankenstein could do some good business. It also has Daniel Radcliffe attached, so it has some potential: $30m OW / $92m DOM / $103m OS / $195m WW

Actuals: $2m OW / $5m DOM / $28m OS / $33m WW
(Close Date: December 31, 2015) 


Sisters (12/18/2015) - A Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy opening against The Force Awakens. Directed by Pitch Perfect's Jason Moore. Likely to do okay with the chick flick crowd: $22m OW / $96m DOM / $56m OS / $152m WW

Actuals: $13m OW / $87m DOM / $17m OS / $105m WW
(Close Date: March 10, 2016) 


Alvin and the Chipmunks: Road Chip (12/18/2015) - Previously moved to December 2016, Fox moved up it back up a year regardless of Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Now the second Chipmunks movie performed pretty well against the juggernaut that was Avatar back in 2009, but that was coming off of its well-liked (by audiences) predecessor and Avatar opened good enough, it didn't immediately cover the box office like a blanket right off the bat. The Force Awakens, on the other hand, will... And how! The third Chipmunks movie opened badly in 2011 but had strong legs. I'm seeing a slightly similar situation here, but with a much, much smaller gross. Tots are the only audience on board here, Force Awakens will take everyone else: $14m OW / $49m DOM / $156m OS / $205m

Actuals (as of 3/23/2016): $14m OW / $85m DOM / $145m OS / $231m WW


Underdogs (TBD) - The domestic debut of Argentinian animated feature Metegol, but thanks to Weinstein it's been redubbed and re-imagined (think Doogal), and will most likely not be very good: $10m OW / $27m DOM / $25m OS / $52m WW
This film is now going straight to video.



#1. STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS - $932 million
#2. JURASSIC WORLD - $652 million
#3. AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON - $459 million
#4. INSIDE OUT - $356 million
#5. FURIOUS 7 - $352 million
#6. MINIONS - $336 million
#7. MOCKINGJAY, PART 2 - $281 million
#8. THE MARTIAN - $228 million
#9. CINDERELLA - $201 million
#10. SPECTRE - $200 million
#11. MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - $195 million
#12. PITCH PERFECT 2 - $183 million
#13. THE REVENANT - $181 million *
#14. ANT-MAN - $180 million
#15. HOME - $177 million
#16. HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 2 - $169 million
#17. FIFTY SHADES OF GREY - $166 million
#18. SPONGEBOB - $162 million
#19. STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON - $161 million
#20. SAN ANDREAS - $155 million
#21. MAD MAX: FURY ROAD - $153 million
#22. DADDY'S HOME - $149 million
#23. INSURGENT - $130 million
#24. THE PEANUTS MOVIE - $130 million
#25. KINGSMAN - $128 million
#26. THE GOOD DINOSAUR - $122 million
#27. SPY - $110 million
#28. TRAINWRECK - $110 million
#29. CREED - $109 million
#30. TOMORROWLAND - $93 million