2017 Domestic Box Office Predictions

Every year, I make a set of box office predictions pertaining to the following year. I usually start writing them around this time, too - autumn. My rule is to not alter these predictions after midnight, December 31st. Why? Because I want to see how close or how far off I was once all of these films end their box office runs. It's my fun way of seeing how well I can predict the box office, and I invite you to make some predictions as well.

Exceptions will be made for films that are moved in the months after New Year's Day. For instance, if a summer movie is moved to the holiday season, then I'll change the prediction.


Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Walt Disney Pictures / Lucasfilm
December 15, 2017

Opening Weekend: $270 million
Domestic Box Office: $964 million
Overseas Box Office: $1,655 million
Worldwide Box Office: $2,619 million

Star Wars: The Force Awakens was the very definition of a juggernaut... The very picture that everyone and their brother absolutely had to go and see, even people who don't hit the movies very often.

This has happened a lot of times in the movies... Spider-Man broke the opening weekend record in 2002 with a then-gargantuan $114 million and went on to make a then very rare $400 million stateside, and despite the fact that its sequel was superior in terms of quality, it ended up grossing roughly $30 million less stateside... Why did this happen? Simple. The first one had that "wow!" factor, it had that novelty factor, thus everyone - even your local grannie who barely ever takes a trip to the theater every 2-3 years - went. Spider-Man overperformed, hence Spider-Man 2's performance not matching it - still a great performance, though!

This had also happened with the original Star Wars trilogy. Again, the newness of it... The Empire Strikes Back is arguably the better film, but it didn't make as much. The original 1977 release of Star Wars - without any theatrical re-release totals added - sold the most tickets out of all the installments - 142 million, second place is The Force Awakens with 108 million.

On the Marvel front, it happened. The Avengers broke records and opened with $207 million, the final gross was an astounding $623 million. Avengers: Age of Ultron opened with $191 million, simply because that novelty wore off for some. Legs were mostly underwhelming, as the quality split audiences.

I originally thought that The Last Jedi would do exceptional business, but would be nowhere near as big as it predecessor domestically. However, the untimely death of Carrie Fisher at the end of this year will most likely lead to a Dark Knight-esque performance, where everyone comes out to see the actress' final film. The same thing had happened to Furious 7, finished and released after the death of Paul Walker. That opened significantly higher than its predecessor, which was already the peak of the series in terms of the box office. That being said, The Force Awakens still made a ridiculous amount of money... How much higher can this film go at the domestic box office?

In terms of the opening weekend gross? Yes, I think it breaks the record. Domestic? Well, I think the legs will be good. The Force Awakens scored a 3.7x multiplier, most films that open with over $100 million don't get anything near a 3.0x multiplier. Star Wars is Star Wars, and it's also the holiday season, so I think the legs will be solid but not as strong as Force Awakens. Not because of quality or anything, but Force Awakens was one of those reality-bending performances. The Last Jedi should be as well, but not to that degree, hence it missing $1 billion domestically...

The Dark Knight is a hard comparison to make because its predecessor, Batman Begins, didn't really do all that great to begin with. It opened softly, but had excellent legs that carried it past $200 million domestically. That one was a consistent home video hit. The Dark Knight's performance was astronomical in 2008. A better comparison is Furious 7. The previous film opened with $97 million, Furious 7 opened with $147 million. Legs? Can't say, both had the usual blockbuster legs.

So I'm thinking... A bigger opening, because of what has happened... But the finish will be close to the previous film, because again. How much higher can a Star Wars film go domestically? How high can any film go domestically right now?

* Slight revisions to summary made after title title reveal on January 23, 2017.


Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2
Walt Disney Pictures / Marvel Studios
May 5, 2017

Opening Weekend: $175 million
Domestic Box Office: $481 million
Overseas Box Office: $789 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,270 million

Guardians of the Galaxy was a surprise picture in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, and I think it was so big for one good reason... It didn't look like yet another Iron Man-esque introduction to a new character. It was set in outer space, it had a quirky premise, it had talking raccoons and talking trees, it had a groovy 70s/80s soundtrack, it looked unlike any previous Marvel film and unlike a lot of big blockbuster films... It was a real must-see, and it opened higher than all of the non-Iron Man originals, even opening higher than some sequels like Thor: The Dark World and sitting neck and neck with the opening weekend gross of Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

Now compare that to Ant-Man, the first MCU film released after Guardians so far. A decent $57 million opening. Doctor Strange by contrast, since it too was something new for Marvel (sorcery, mind-bending alternate reality/dimension stuff), opened with a stellar $84 million. Marvel is now expected to make more than just suited guys fighting baddies for their introductory movies. Guardians and Strange fit the bill.

Anyways, Guardians of the Galaxy went on to garner strong word-of-mouth and made over 3x its already giant opening weekend gross. That's excellent for any blockbuster and/or superhero film. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, if marketed just right, could soar to outer space with a huge opening. With a huge opening though, I think the legs will be a little weaker, but still enough to get it past $450 million - should the film's quality and audience appeal match the original.


Beauty and the Beast
Walt Disney Pictures
March 17, 2017

Opening Weekend: $154 million
Domestic Box Office: $462 million
Overseas Box Office: $722 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,184 million

When Disney scores with a live-action/hyper-real remake, they really really score. Of all the post-Alice in Wonderland retreads, not counting Alice's disastrous sequel and Pete's Dragon, none of them opened with less than $65 million stateside. Cinderella had decent legs, while Maleficent really hung on, and The Jungle Book outdid Alice in Wonderland.

Beauty and the Beast is one of the most well-known Disney animated films, one of the most well-known films. A smash back in the day, still loved today, Beauty and the Beast is going to hit everyone from general audiences to the nostalgic 90s kids who help make these films so huge, and everyone else in-between. Unlike Alice in Wonderland, and like Maleficent, visually it looks very close to the animated film. The story may ultimately be different, but in terms of its looks, it'll be nearly identical to the classic.

It also broke the record for the most trailer views in a single day - an astounding 91 million...

This thing is going to explode at the box office... The legs will be strong, that is if the film ends up being above average, plus it has the spring season and little family competition to its advantage. Disney's going to pull out all the stops with the marketing, too.


Justice League
Warner Bros./DC
November 17, 2017

Opening Weekend: $179 million
Domestic Box Office: $393 million
Overseas Box Office: $772 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,165 million

Justice League.

The first ever big screen team-up of Superman, Batman, Wonder Woman, The Flash, Aquaman, and Cyborg.

Is it the next Avengers?

I really don't think so. Not after the divisive reception that Man of Steel, Batman v Superman, and Suicide Squad got. The new Superman debut feature and the villain team-up opened huge, but had tepid legs at best. Batman v Superman had abysmal legs. It's split down the middle, these new films are either embraced or scorned. Justice League, I still think, can open extremely high because of the novelty factor: This being the first big screen Justice League movie. This is hard to predict because this movie seems to be the path to DC's future.

It began filming after Batman v Superman slipped at the box office, and while it was filming, major overhauls took place at DC. With Geoff Johns and Jon Berg in high positions, there's a strong chance this film ends up being far better than its predecessors and an overall solid, crowd-pleasing film. Its Comic-Con trailer indicated a much more lighthearted vibe, and the story seems a lot less cluttered... Will it be a cut above Man of Steel? (The seemingly highest-rated film of the canon so far.) Will it be a film audiences will say good words about?

This is a case where we can't quite gauge the quality, so I'll say it'll open huge and have so-so legs. The usual for a frontloaded movie like this.


Spider-Man: Homecoming
July 7, 2017

Opening Weekend: $130 million
Domestic Box Office: $364 million
Overseas Box Office: $587 million
Worldwide Box Office: $951 million

Spider-Man will be a hot commodity again... His Marvel Cinematic Universe debut in Captain America: Civil War is sure to get non-fans excited for his solo adventure, alongside the MCU fans. With that, I expect the opening weekend gross to land between the openings of the biggest Sam Raimi films (adjusted, lowest is Spider-Man 2 with $121 million) and the Sony hack-ups that were the Amazing Spider-Man films (Amazing Spider-Man 2 opened with $91 million)...

I think with how good he was in Civil War and how audiences responded to him, there will be excitement for his first solo MCU film. It also helps greatly that Tony Stark will be a major character in it, not to mention an excellent teaser trailer, and we'll probably see other MCU faces show up in it. All of that alone should give it a nice boost, and legs should be the usual for a solid MCU film. This will be the success the two Amazing Spider-Man films never really were, but will also be another huge installment in the ever-growing Marvel Cinematic Universe.


Despicable Me 3
June 30, 2017

Opening Weekend: $75 million
Domestic Box Office: $307 million
Overseas Box Office: $726 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,033 million

With the Despicable Me franchise, I think the sequel and spin-off Minions were the peaks in terms of the domestic box office. Despicable Me was that little unexpected sleeper hit in 2010, the sequel exploded. The series followed a similar trajectory that the Shrek films followed - Shrek was a sleeper, Shrek 2 was a box office titan. Minions opened even bigger than Despicable Me 2, but had weaker legs and settled for a domestic gross between the two. The same happened with Shrek the Third.

So does Despicable Me 3 pull a Shrek Forever After? That had the lowest attendance of the Shreks, but still outgrossed the original's unadjusted domestic total. Or will Despicable Me 3 have a steady drop? I think it will do the latter. Audiences might be Despicable Me-d out by that point, if Minions' legs were any indicator. Minions could've been a case of a frontloaded film, but Despicable Me 2 had a super-impressive 4.4x mutliplier off its really big opening, so I think a decrease is in order. Big opening, still-good legs (little family competition after it, will only have to put up with Cars 3 for a little while.), fine finish domestically and an inevitably large amount worldwide.


Wonder Woman
Warner Bros./DC Entertainment
June 2, 2017

Opening Weekend: $111 million
Domestic Box Office: $301 million
Overseas Box Office: $423 million
Worldwide Box Office: $724 million

Wonder Woman seems to be not only a markedly better installment in the DC Extended Universe, but also something kind of fresh and new. Not only do we have a female superhero leading a big budget blockbuster, but also a cross between a World War I period piece and a big fantasy adventure. The Comic-Con trailer wowed and amazed, and Warner Bros. released it online for everyone else to see, no doubt getting tons of people interested. Trailer two kept the momentum going. If Suicide Squad can open with over $100 million domestically despite its poor reviews and the near-toxic reception of Batman v Superman before it, then anything is possible.

As such, this is Wonder Woman's first big budget film, it looks great, and I think it'll hang on better than the previous DCEU installments, so long as it has fun and delivers for the audience.


The Fate of the Furious
April 14, 2017

Opening Weekend: $127 million
Domestic Box Office: $298 million
Overseas Box Office: $705 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,003 million

Furious 7 was a Dark Knight case. Coming off of an upward climb at the box office (Fast & Furious, to Fast Five, to Fast & Furious 6), Furious 7 was already set to pummel on opening weekend. Then Paul Walker's death had occurred, and spiked the opening numbers the way Heath Ledger's death did for The Dark Knight. Like its predecessors, Furious 7 ultimately had so-so legs. Being the first post-Walker Fast & Furious installment, I feel a decent-sized drop-off is in play, but not a big one. The series will keep its speed, as the trailer promises a story that switches things up.


Thor: Ragnarok
November 3, 2017

Opening Weekend: $101 million
Domestic Box Office: $271 million
Overseas Box Office: $505 million 
Worldwide Box Office: $776 million

The film that will really spike interest in Marvel's mighty Asgardian demigod, more so than an Avengers installment. Thor: Ragnarok is shaping up to be the Thor movie fans have wanted. While Thor didn't do bad for a debut (it made 2.8x its opening weekend, not bad for a superhero film), its sequel had weak legs - mostly due to the fact that it just didn't cut it for many audiences. Thor: Ragnarok looks to correct The Dark World's problems, and then some. It's pairing Thor up with The Hulk, not dissimilar to The Winter Soldier pairing Captain America up with Black Widow and a new face (Falcon), so I think it'll open significantly higher than The Dark World and have solid legs overall for what it is.


Walt Disney Pictures/Pixar
November 22, 2017

Opening Weekend: $60 million
Domestic Box Office: $246 million
Overseas Box Office: $301 million
Worldwide Box Office: $547 million

A wild card.

Yes, I thought I would've never said this about a Pixar film... But here we are, one box office flop later.

Coco is a wild card for one good reason... Disney's marketing department has made it clear that they can't handle a bunch of tentpole "event" movies at once. This year alone showed that in spades. The summer brought hits Captain America: Civil War and Finding Dory, while Alice Through the Looking Glass, The BFG, and Pete's Dragon all underperformed. The Finest Hours was dumped and mostly overlooked.

Then we get to The Good Dinosaur, Pixar's latest original story. It was released at the end of 2015, and it was a victim of this juggling. It also didn't help that the film was very off-kilter and very out-there, while also looking dull on the surface. The marketing hid the movie's more bizarre aspects.

Coco is in a similar situation. The Thanksgiving weekend, sitting smack-dab in the middle of Thor: Ragnarok and Star Wars - Episode VIII. You know Disney will make those two a top priority, but what about the Pixar film about Mexican holiday Day of the Dead that's opening weeks after the actual holiday occurs? This year, Disney marketing did fine with Disney Animation's Moana, despite the fact that it's right between a big Marvel movie and a Star Wars movie. So will Disney marketing make this film a priority? Or will they let it die like they did to The Good Dinosaur?

The Good Dinosaur and Moana aren't quite the same. The Pixar film is a weird minimalist western-esque story that just happened to star dinosaurs, while the Disney Animation Polynesian epic is much like the 90s Disney films that people can't get enough of. Coco is unlike both of these... It has musical elements, but isn't a typical musical. It's also going to be a different kind of adventure, perhaps giving it some advantage over the more deceptively simplistic Good Dinosaur. It sounds like a "typical" Pixar film, with a dizzying, complicated plot, and promise of big laughs and a beating heart.

With that, I'm optimistic that Disney will put more effort into marketing this movie. They don't have a Good Dinosaur-like picture on their hands, they have something that sounds more like Inside Out. They just need to market this new Pixar film right, and then it'll take off at the box office, regardless of the stiff competition.



Warner Bros./Syncopy
July 21, 2017

Opening Weekend: $51 million
Domestic Box Office: $224 million
Overseas Box Office: $234 million
Worldwide Box Office: $458 million

If there's one thing most of Christopher Nolan's movies always have, it's good legs.

Dunkirk, a World War II action-drama, looks to be no different. That being said, I see something of a smaller opening for this film. Nolan's first post-Dark Knight film, Inception, opened so high because of the concept and probably the fact that it arrived hot on the heels of his Batman success. Interstellar, however, didn't drum up the same kind of excitement while still opening well nonetheless. I think Dunkirk will perform similarly, and have ridiculous legs all throughout the late summer period.


Kong: Skull Island
Warner Bros./Legendary Pictures
March 10, 2017

Opening Weekend: $78 million
Domestic Box Office: $210 million
Overseas Box Office: $365 million
Worldwide Box Office: $575 million

A fresh new take on King Kong that thankfully isn't yet another retelling of the 1933 classic's story, Kong: Skull Island comes on like WB/Legendary's own Godzilla, which it'll connect with later on down the road. WB's marketing wisely played up the fact that it was a fresh take on the monster, and also loaded its trailers with lots of suspense. They're looking to do the same for the 8th Wonder of the World. If they stick to those guns and keeping playing on how different this giant ape will be, Kong will be one of early 2017's surprise hits.


War of the
Planet of the Apes
July 14, 2017

Opening Weekend: $69 million
Domestic Box Office: $207 million
Overseas Box Office: $468 million
Worldwide Box Office: $675 million

I expect this installment to stay flat, since the previous one opened higher than the first but had weaker legs.


The Lego Batman Movie
Warner Animation Group
February 10, 2017

Opening Weekend: $54 million 
Domestic Box Office: $194 million
Overseas Box Office: $225 million
Worldwide Box Office: $419 million

The Lego Movie was a surprise success for a number of reasons, being the first proper film based on the building toy was one of them, the other? It was fresh and new, and as a result it had great legs. I think momentum will be there for this fun-looking spin-off, plus Batman is seemingly always a sell (when it comes to opening weekend grosses, that is), so I think The Lego Batman Movie will have a solid opening. Legs will probably be good at best, too.

ACTUALS (as of 2/20/2017)
Opening Weekend: $53 million
Domestic Box Office: $107 million
Overseas Box Office: $72 million
Worldwide Box Office: $179 million


Cars 3
Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar
June 16, 2017

Opening Weekend: $49 million
Domestic Box Office: $186 million
Overseas Box Office: $312 million
Worldwide Box Office: $498 million

Let's push what the majority of the Internet thinks about Cars aside for one second...

Cars was released when the CG fad of the early 2000s was waning - the CG fad was a time where anything with nice-looking computer animation could get you an opening weekend success... It worked for shovelware like Shark Tale and Chicken Little! After 2006, not so much... Still, Cars collected a nice $60 million on opening weekend because of how good it looked. Disney has marketed almost all of Pixar's films so well, and Cars is no exception. With little good competition all summer long, the film - usually the Pixar whipping post of the net - pulled a great 4x multiplier, showing that audiences indeed enjoyed it.

Cars 2's opening was $66 million, tickets-wise that was a little lower than numero uno's opening, but still pretty impressive considering other sequel dips these days. Disney marketed the heck out of that one, and it ultimately made less than its predecessor because the film didn't meet audiences' expectations. It scored the lowest multiplier for a Pixar film to date: 2.8x...

So where does that leave Cars 3? It's arriving almost exactly six years after the last one (and over 10 years since the first Cars! Surreal!), though the franchise is still fresh in minds because Disney themselves market the heck out of it - plus there's Cars Land at Disney's California Adventure, and the franchise's presence in the other Disney Parks. DisneyToon released the two Planes spin-offs in 2013 and 2014 respectively, keeping it alive somewhat. I think the reception of Cars 2 tied with the over-saturation, and time going by might lower this film's chances on opening weekend, but I still think it can open well enough.

High above Planes, maybe a little below Cars 2.

We were recently shown that the Pixar name alone does not guarantee a $60 million opening. Every post-2007 Pixar film has opened with that amount or higher except The Good Dinosaur, which took in $39 million... But that film was also poorly marketed, if marketed at all. Not too many people noticed it, or knew it was out. Cars 3, being a summer event and opening nowhere near a new Star Wars movie, should be fine. Plus, the teaser got a good amount of buzz... But again, I don't see that big of a turnout, but a rather modest one this time.

So I think it'll open fine, have good legs - since the film looks to return to racing and the Americana that made the first film work - and do fine enough worldwide.


Transformers: The Last Knight
June 23, 2017

Opening Weekend: $72 million
Domestic Box Office: $180 million
Overseas Box Office: $924 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,104 million

It's the franchise that seemingly won't wither... Transformers: Age of Extinction was the first film in the series to not open on a weekday. Opening on a typical 3-day frame (Fri-to-Sun), it made $100 million... This was roughly 7 years after the first Transformers, and 5 years after Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (which made $108 million on opening weekend, unadjusted)...

So I think with this one, since Age of Extinction had pretty mediocre legs, we'll see a good-sized dip. Not a huge one, for the series still has a built-in audience and oddly enough, lots of families attend these things too because Transformers really began as a toy and cartoon series for the younger set... Regardless of how appropriate these PG-13 films might be, but that's another story. So I see a good-sized opening, similar legs to Age of Extinction, and a massive overseas take. I don't think the "Optimus goes dark" angle will really do much to win others back.

Michael Bay will simply keep rolling...


20th Century Fox / Marvel Ent.
March 3, 2017

Opening Weekend: $59 million
Domestic Box Office: $164 million
Overseas Box Office: $257 million
Worldwide Box Office: $421 million

After X-Men: Apocalypse's adequate run, I think the series is at a point where the audience demands a little bit more. After the relatively poor response to X-Men: The Last Stand and Origins: Wolverine many years back, the X-Men films began to do just good, not amazing business like they used to. X-Men: Days of Future Past was the anomaly, as it brought back the original cast for the first time in eight years, so that drove the big $90 million opening... But with Apocalypse, everything went back to usual. Its performance may seem disappointing, but it's on par with X-Men: First Class and The Wolverine. The series has simply stayed flat.

This third installment - with its very direct title - has a few major things going for it: It's going to be rated R, it looks to be unlike any recent superhero film, and it promises to be a darker conclusion to the character's standalone trilogy. Deadpool spiked this year partially because it was a filthier, bloodier superhero (or anti-hero) movie, Logan could benefit from being a similarly edgy/different film - though I don't see it going too high because Deadpool is Deadpool, and for many, the film was their introduction to the character, and many have waited for the day a proper Deadpool film was made. We all know Wolverine.

I think it'll perform on par with the previous Wolverine installment, and won't be really leggy, as X-Men films normally don't score multipliers any higher than 2.5-2.6x. Even if it's of great quality.


A Bad Moms Christmas
November 3, 2017

Opening Weekend: $48 million
Domestic Box Office: $163 million
Overseas Box Office: $71 million
Worldwide Box Office: $234 million

The first one had some serious staying power, being a comedy that seemed to really appeal to the audiences it was going for. It made nearly 5x its decent opening weekend gross, I expect this to open significantly higher, but have decent legs at best because of that.

I expect a performance akin to The Hangover Part II. The Hangover was another sort-of "it came out of nowhere" comedy that had great legs at the box office, its successor opened much higher but had weaker legs. Arriving so soon after the first one could also possibly hurt it a bit, but it won't matter... It'll probably cost next-to-nothing to make.


Pirates of the Caribbean
Dead Men Tell No Tales
Walt Disney Pictures / Jerry Bruckheimer Productions
July 7, 2017

Opening Weekend: $58 million
Domestic Box Office: $160 million
Overseas Box Office: $492 million
Worldwide Box Office: $652 million

Oddly enough, the fifth installment of the Pirates of the Caribbean series is a bit of a wild card...

The Pirates franchise was very fruitful for Disney. The first film a smash sleeper hit, its first two sequels monolithic, and its fourth entry falling hard domestically while soaring everywhere else... Where does that leave Dead Men Tell No Tales? Six years after the lukewarmly received On Stranger Tides, do audiences care anymore? Has the well run dry? Or will it do well enough just because it's Pirates?

On Stranger Tides' opening weekend wasn't too far below At World's End's opening gross, the domestic gross was a bit of a sharp dip. Oddly enough, Pirates has followed the routes of Shrek and Ice Age. In terms of Shrek comparisons, Pirates was a sleeper, the sequel was even bigger, three fell below, four fell even further. Ice Age's fourth entry performed just like Pirates and Shrek's fourth installments... So does that mean Pirates will see an Ice Age: Collision Course-like dip?

Perhaps the long wait could help it stabilize, but I think the franchise could be past its prime, and audiences are choosier with blockbusters now. The recent Johnny Depp controversies certainly aren't helping either, and it's probably why Jack Sparrow does not make an appearance in the interesting new teaser. So I don't think it'll necessarily sink to the bottom (with a significantly smaller opening, I can see the legs being stronger than On Stranger Tides' legs), but I feel that overseas numbers are going to rescue this film in the end.


Kingsman: The Golden Circle
20th Century Fox/Marv
October 6, 2017

Opening Weekend: $49 million
Domestic Box Office: $156 million
Overseas Box Office: $313 million
Worldwide Box Office: $469 million

A surprise sleeper in early 2015, Kingsman: The Secret Service was that little action movie that came out of nowhere and did decent numbers on opening weekend, only to hang on tightly as word-of-mouth spread on how good and how action-packed the picture was. Unlike most come-and-go blockbusters, Kingsman - an R-rated film no less - pulled in 3.5x its opening weekend gross, showing what kind of staying power it had.

That being said, I think the sequel won't erupt from there, but will open significantly higher than its predecessor. Legs should be fine after that, being an October release. Still, it should post fine numbers here and do better business overseas. Blade Runner 2049 could be a challenge, but both should co-exist being wildly different kinds of movies.


Alien: Covenant
20th Century Fox/Scott Free/Brandywine/TSG
May 19, 2017

Opening Weekend: $49 million
Domestic Box Office: $142 million
Overseas Box Office: $210 million
Worldwide Box Office: $352 million

Prometheus attempted to relaunch the Alien franchise, and initially it did so with a bang... But after that great $51 million opening, legs were pretty weak. Will audiences be up for what is really a sequel to Prometheus? It's not an Alien 5, and I think Prometheus' divisiveness and disappearance could hurt this sequel's chances... But the decision to call it "Alien": Covenant could help it on opening weekend. Legs are up in the air, if it's more Prometheus and less Alien, then it'll slowly fall off the charts. If it's well-liked by audiences, it'll hang on.


Pitch Perfect 3
December 22, 2017

Opening Weekend: $34 million
Domestic Box Office: $139 million
Overseas Box Office: $85 million
Worldwide Box Office: $224 million

When it was announced that Pitch Perfect 3 would be pushed back to the timeframe of Star Wars: Episode VIII, people worried... But I'm not worried.

Remember how Sisters did against The Force Awakens? That was an original comedy too, not a sequel or an entry in a proven franchise. Pitch Perfect 3 will be just fine, so long as the movie looks appealing.

Pitch Perfect was one of those out-of-nowhere leggy sleepers. It opened with ho-hum results, but really, really stayed on the charts, making 4.6x its opening. Through home media and TV and such, its audience grew larger. As expected, the sequel opened a lot higher but had weaker legs in the long run, it still settled for a strong domestic total. Now I think Pitch Perfect 3 will gross somewhere between the two, stateside. It should be fine, for they both cost next to nothing to make.


Blade Runner 2049
Warner Bros./Alcon/Scott Free/Thunderbird
October 6, 2017

Opening Weekend: $39 million
Domestic Box Office: $136 million
Overseas Box Office: $276 million
Worldwide Box Office: $412 million

Blade Runner...

Legendary, hailed as a masterpiece, but we all know it was a movie very few saw in the summer of 1982. Over the years, more have known about it, but will that be enough to beef up the sequel? I think an apt comparison here is Mad Max. The first Mad Max was barely released in America, while its 1981 sequel did decent business when released stateside months after its Australian debut. Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome was the most mainstream entry of that series, but that didn't quite set the domestic box office on fire either.

Years passed. Mad Max: Fury Road arrived when its predecessor turned 30 (!), and it opened well because it was able to stand on its own as a new action picture. That got the newcomers in, whilst attracting long-time Max fans. Blade Runner 2049 would need to really come on as something, but it does resemble its predecessor and Harrison Ford is back. I can see something a Fury Road-esque performance. One would think Fury Road, with its desert car mayhem and sick visuals, would've opened much higher. It did not, so I don't expect the same for the futuristic world of Blade Runner 2049.

So a decent opening, but strong legs to carry the picture past $100 million and pretty good overseas numbers. I don't think that's too bad for a sequel to a sci-fi cult classic that bombed back in the day. I think it'll also stack up well against the also adult-skewing action fest Kingsman sequel.


Live By Night
Warner Bros./Appian Way/Pearl Street
December 25, 2016 (limited)
January 13, 2017 (wide)

Opening Weekend: $25 million
Domestic Box Office: $127 million
Overseas Box Office: $112 million
Worldwide Box Office: $239 million

I think it's going to be the next Argo, and now that it has a limited release that will help build up Oscar buzz, it should be a very leggy film. Even coming off of The Accountant.

ACTUALS (as of 2/16/2017)
Opening Weekend: $5 million
Domestic Box Office: $10 million
Overseas Box Office: $11 million
Worldwide Box Office: $21 million

Post-Release Thoughts (1/22/2017): Argo and The Accountant this was not, it was terribly-received and is doing overall godawful. I thought audiences would go despite the mixed reception. Accountant wasn't loved, but that was leggy. Oh well, a miss.


The Mummy
Universal/K/O Paper Products/Sean Daniel
June 9, 2017

Opening Weekend: $46 million
Domestic Box Office: $126 million
Overseas Box Office: $232 million
Worldwide Box Office: $358 million

This new take on The Mummy, and the launchpad for the Universal Monsters Cinematic Universe, looks to be another blow-em-up spectacle. Something far removed from the original 1932 classic, and the 1999 film. It should open well enough, being a new take on a familiar property and one that has a pretty solid teaser. Legs should be the usual.


Murder on the Orient Express
Fox/Genre/Mark Gordon/Scott Free
November 22, 2017

Opening Weekend: $33 million
Domestic Box Office: $125 million
Overseas Box Office: $157 million
Worldwide Box Office: $282 million

A re-telling of a classic mystery with a strong cast, this could be a leggy dark horse during the holiday season.


Fifty Shades Darker
Universal/De Luca/Trigger
February 10, 2017

Opening Weekend: $60 million
Domestic Box Office: $124 million
Overseas Box Office: $245 million
Worldwide Box Office: $369 million

Will be frontloaded like its predecessor, and then sink like a stone on subsequent weekends. I think the hype won't be as high this time, though, but a lot of fans will still be there.

ACTUALS (as of 2/20/2017)
Opening Weekend: $46 million
Domestic Box Office: $91 million
Overseas Box Office: $187 million
Worldwide Box Office: $279 million


The Lego Ninjago Movie
Warner Animation
September 22, 2017

Opening Weekend: $35 million
Domestic Box Office: $115 million
Overseas Box Office: $197 million
Worldwide Box Office: $312 million

A spin-off based on the long-running Lego line, I think this one won't have the power of its predecessors, but it will still do solid business. It's also one of the sole family movies opening in its timeframe. I think it'll open somewhere between Warner Animation Group's own Storks ($21 million) and my prediction for The Lego Batman Movie ($54 million), and have solid legs from there on out.


Fox/Blue Sky
December 15, 2017

* This prediction had to be altered due to the release date change that occurred on 2/6/2017...

Opening Weekend: $21 million
Domestic Box Office: $115 million
Overseas Box Office: $279 million
Worldwide Box Office: $394 million

Blue Sky can be on and off with animation. Not all of their films easily blow past $100 million at the domestic box office. Ferdinand is the only PG/family-friendly film that is opening up against the PG-13 Last Jedi, so it does have some small advantages there. It could either play out like DreamWorks' Trolls, which was released by Fox against big Disney-distributed PG-13 tentpole Doctor Strange. Or it could play like Fox's Alvin and the Chipmunks: Road Chip, which debuted against The Force Awakens and still did okay for itself.

I think this will be in the middle, but a little closer to Trolls, for the Chipmunks series overstayed its welcome after the third installment back in 2011. I can't see it making less than Blue Sky's own Epic, either.


Captain Underpants
June 2, 2017

Opening Weekend: $32 million
Domestic Box Office: $108 million
Overseas Box Office: $163 million
Worldwide Box Office: $271 million

Another wild card DreamWorks animated film, and the final film of theirs to be distributed by 20th Century Fox. Captain Underpants' source material is perhaps mostly for the younger set, and could spell trouble for a film that should appeal to a wide family audience. As such, I can see this playing out like a milder film like Mr. Peabody & Sherman. Just enough to get the parents to say "yes" and take their kids, but not enough to ensure a blockbuster gross. Adult appeal won't go beyond nostalgic 90s kids who grew up with the books.


Power Rangers
March 24, 2017

Opening Weekend: $38 million
Domestic Box Office: $101 million
Overseas Box Office: $213 million
Worldwide Box Office: $314 million

Even in its prime in the mid-1990s, the Power Rangers franchise didn't quite elevate the first movie. The new film, long in the making and coming from Lionsgate, has a trailer that appears to have generated some mixed but generally positive reactions. Some are comparing it to the ill-fated Fant4stic from last year, while others aren't sure of the more serious tone it's taking. I can imagine it opening well enough, bringing in fans and those looking for a fun blockbuster, and then having so-so legs.


The Star
Sony Animation
November 10, 2017

Opening Weekend: $27 million
Domestic Box Office: $110 million
Overseas Box Office: $91 million
Worldwide Box Office: $201 million

A retelling of the Nativity story that's sure to have some familiar family animated movie elements, I feel this one will open soft but then garner legs as Christmas nears. Definitely one of Sony Animation's more interesting and arguably off-kilter releases.


The Boss Baby
March 31, 2017

Opening Weekend: $31 million
Domestic Box Office: $102 million
Overseas Box Office: $178 million
Worldwide Box Office: $273 million

DreamWorks and Fox miraculously scored three successes in a row, but the marketing for this has drawn mixed reactions... But then again, so did the Home and Trolls teasers. The film doesn't look to offer anything new in the world of animated movies, but I don't see it completely falling flat on its face either. Perhaps the concept alone can appeal to some. I see another Peabody/Turbo-esque performance for this one, not something more akin to Trolls.

Smurfs: The Lost Village
Sony Animation
April 7, 2017

Opening Weekend: $27 million
Domestic Box Office: $100 million
Overseas Box Office: $321 million
Worldwide Box Office: $421 million

Sony Pictures Animation apparently wasn't too pleased with how The Smurfs 2 performed back in 2013. The first film in the short-lived live-action hybrid series opened well enough and had ridiculous legs in the late summer of 2011, its sequel wasn't as lucky, opening with much less than its predecessor. Legs only got it past $70 million stateside.

Smurfs: The Lost Village is a completely different film from the hybrids. It will be all-animated, it has an all-new cast, it has nothing to do with the storyline of the hybrids, and will be closer in tone to the original comic strip. How will that translate? Will most audiences avoid this film, being all smurfed out from the last one? Or will the re-skin get a better opening weekend for the franchise? I think it'll open adequately, plus the Easter time frame suits it well, though opening the weekend right after DreamWorks' The Boss Baby is a bit of a risk. Perhaps it should be moved back so it could have a little more breathing room.


Warner Bros.
September 8, 2017

Opening Weekend: $36 million
Domestic Box Office: $100 million
Overseas Box Office: $86 million
Worldwide Box Office: $186 million

Few Stephen King adaptations made in the 2000s and onward have really scored at the box office. I have a feeling It could be an exception, and actually do pretty well, coming from Warner Bros. It was never given a theatrical adaptation, instead it got a miniseries in 1990, so maybe that could boost its chances as well.



A Monster Calls (January 6, 2017) - $12m OW / $48m DOM / $100m OS / $148m WW - Seems like there's little buzz despite the limited release and strong reviews, but I suspect it'll open okay and hold on from there.

ACTUALS: $2m OW / $3m DOM / $38m OS / $41m WW
Post-Release Thoughts (1/22/2017): Did way worse... Focus really dumped this one, despite the strong reviews and film festival buzz. Huge miss.
(Close Date: January 26, 2017) 

Underworld: Blood Wars (January 6, 2017) - $11m OW / $23 million DOM / $112m OS / $135m WW - Given the long wait and probably a lack of interest, this will open below the other Underworld films, unadjusted, while doing better overseas.

ACTUALS (as of 2/16/2017): $13m OW / $30m DOM / $48m OS / $78m WW

Monster Trucks (January 13, 2017) - $8m OW / $25m DOM / $41m OS / $66m WW - Paramount has completely lost faith in this one, taking a $115 million write-down on it before the end of September. I can see it opening with very little, but I think it could do decently afterwards, pull a sort-of Nut Job-esque performance while dealing with spillover from Sing.

ACTUALS (as of 2/20/2017): $10m OW / $32m DOM / $27m OS / $60m WW

The Founder (January 20, 2017) - $9m OW / $27m DOM / $9m OS / $36m WW - With Steve Jobs bombing a year ago, I figure The Founder won't drum up too much interest either. Perhaps The Social Network soared because it was in the heat of the moment, when Facebook was still relatively big and perhaps the most prominent social network. The history of Apple, I guess, didn't have the same impact. Twice. I suspect the history of McDonald's won't, either - Oscar buzz or not.

ACTUALS (as of 2/20/2017): $3m OW / $12m DOM / $6m OS / $18m WW

Split (January 20, 2017) - $19m OW / $45m DOM / $76m OS / $121m WW - Will probably play out like a milder Visit, it all depends on whether this Shyamalan film disappoints big time or is just alright, if not good.

ACTUALS (as of 2/20/2017): $40m OW / $124m DOM / $69m OS / $194m WW

xXx: The Return of Xander Cage (January 20, 2017) - $26m OW / $72m DOM / $198m OS / $270 WW - Adjust xXx's 2002 gross, you get more than $60 million for the opening weekend and over $200 million for the domestic haul... Yet some 15 years later, will there be any interest? Since Pitch Black wasn't a huge hit to begin with, it's understandable why the following Riddick films didn't set the box office on fire, but this follows a hit... But was xXx a one-and-done thing? (The Vin-less sequel from 2005 notwithstanding.)

ACTUALS (as of 2/12/2017): $20m OW / $44m DOM / $263m OS / $308m WW
Post-Release Thoughts (2/20/2017): I thought I had gone overboard on the overseas box office prediction, it has been blown out of the water. Domestic, though... Not as leggy as I thought it could be.

A Dog's Purpose (January 27, 2017) - $17m OW / $66m DOM / $33m OS / $99m WW - I have a feeling this one isn't on many people's radars, but will come out softly and garner excellent legs. Lasse Hallstrom doesn't really produce blockbuster material.

ACTUALS (as of 2/20/2017): $18m OW / $52m DOM / $13m OS / $66m WW

Resident Evil: The Final Chapter (January 27, 2017) - $12m OW / $25m DOM / $165m OS / $190m WW - 5 years after the previous installment, which opened on par with the others, so I think this one will see a dip like Underworld: Blood Wars will... And strong overseas numbers.

ACTUALS (as of 2/20/2017): $13m OW / $26m DOM / $121m OS / $147m WW

Rings (February 3, 2017) - $16m OW / $35m DOM / $41m OS / $76m WW - The Ring was a surprise hit, The Ring Two opened well but sunk like a stone afterwards. The constant delays and the push to February indicate that Rings isn't meant to be some resurgence of the series, so I suspect a typical late winter horror movie performance for this one.

ACTUALS (as of 2/20/2017): $13m OW / $26m DOM / $40m OS / $66m WW

The Space Between Us (February 3, 2017) - $11m OW / $31m DOM / $20m OS / $51m WW - Despite the delays, I think this will be a lowkey release at best, being an STX film.

ACTUALS (as of 2/20/2017): $3m OW / $7m DOM

John Wick: Chapter Two (February 10, 2017) - $20m OW / $54m DOM / $67m OS / $121m WW - The first came out of nowhere, was pretty leggy. I think the sequel opens higher, but isn't as leggy.

ACTUALS (as of 2/30/2017): $30m OW / $61m DOM / $31m OS / $93m WW

The Great Wall (February 17, 2017) - $12 million OW / $28m DOM / $235m OS / $263m WW - I have a feeling this is going to be another Legendary film that Universal will just toss, as they've been very good at doing that. That being said, I see it doing much better abroad. The other issue? The film is pretty controversial over here due to the marketing really making it seem like Matt Damon's character, one of *five* leads, is the main face of the movie. Otherwise, interest seems low. Another Seventh Son-esque Legendary toss-away methinks.

ACTUALS (as of 2/20/2017) - $18m OW / $21m DOM / $244m OS / $266m WW

Rock Dog (February 24, 2017) - $4m OW / $11m DOM / $10m OS / $21m WW - Flopped in China, Lionsgate is releasing it here, it'll perform like Norm of the North and Wild Life.

T2: Trainspotting (March 3, 2017) - $21m OW / $75m DOM / $46m OS / $121m WW - The original was a tiny release back in 1996, this sequel should benefit from how well-liked the original is, but I don't expect it to set anything on fire.

The Belko Experiment (March 17, 2017) - $19m OW / $53m DOM / $21m OS / $74m WW - Looking to be more interesting than High Top's other horror releases, and boasting some good names, I think this one will outperform its brethren.

Life (March 24, 2017) - $19m OW / $70m DOM / $88m OS / $158m WW - Smaller sci-fi picture, but one that could be bolstered if it's really good. A sort of semi-Arrival performance.

CHiPs (March 24, 2017) - $9m OW / $27m DOM / $5m OS / $32m WW - Warner Bros. seems to have little care for this one, and it's only three months away at this point. There's no trailer. It was supposed to open in mid-August, but they abruptly moved it up. This will come and go.

Ghost in the Shell (March 31, 2017) - $30m OW / $84m DOM / $201m OS / $285m - The anime might not be well-known amongst the general public, but I think it could play out like a milder Lucy and do even better overseas.

Spark (April 14, 2017) - $8m OW / $24m DOM / $43m OS / $67m WW - Like ToonBox's The Nut Job, this is being released by Open Road Films, and the marketing looks to be quiet. Being an animated sci-fi adventure that looks to aim for the younger, I can see this just coming and going. Not Ratchet & Clank-level disastrous, but in-and-out.

Leap! (April 21, 2017) - $5m OW / $15m DOM / $7m OS / $22m WW - Barely did anything in Europe, Weinstein's doing little to promote it, will come and go.

King Arthur: Legend of the Sword (May 11, 2017) - $19m OW / $54m DOM / $156m OS / $210m - Warner Bros. seems to have little use for this one, and slotting it for the week after Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2? It's like they have had that with most of their non-DC/Harry Potter/animation tentpoles. Meh opening, decent legs, will disappear in a flash.

Baywatch (May 26, 2017) - $26m OW / $83m DOM / $87m OS / $170m WW - I think this will play like a milder 21 Jump Street, a modern riffing on a late 80s/early 90s show with big names like The Rock.

Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (July 21, 2017) - $34m OW / $91m DOM / $256m OS / $347m WW - Sometimes Luc Besson scores a good-sized hit, sometimes he doesn't. Lucy seems like a decent enough comparison here, being a bit different. Valerian looks like something else entirely, and I think that will help it somewhat. I think legs could also be pretty good for this kind of film. Overseas, I see it doing a lot better.

The Dark Tower (July 28, 2017) - $28m OW / $76m DOM / $155m OS / $231 million - It looks to be too far off from the original Stephen King book, and Sony's been having trouble with tentpoles as of late. I see this one being a quieter performer.

The Emoji Movie (August 4, 2017) - $33m OW / $90m DOM / $121m OS / $211m WW - We may be dreading it, but I can see families flocking to this one, but it won't have the sheer legs and longevity that keep most animated movies afloat.

Blazing Samurai (August 4, 2017) - $8m OW / $20m DOM / $10m OS / $30m WW - Open Road doesn't do much with animation, so I don't expect them to pour much into this more off-kilter animated film, especially since they still plan to open it on the same day as The Emoji Movie. That could change, though...
Blazing Samurai is no longer set to open in 2017...

Baby Driver (August 11, 2017) - $7m OW / $23m DOM / $20m OS / $43m WW - Edgar Wright's latest, and I suspect it'll perform like all his other films both here and abroad no matter how great it may be.

Annabelle 2 (August 11, 2017) - $29m OW / $66m DOM / $114m OS / $180m WW - Annabelle was a surprise for a horror sleeper, but it didn't have the legs that the first Conjuring did. My guess is that Annabelle 2 has similarly meh/typical-horror legs, and a smaller opening.

The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature (August 18, 2017) - $12m OW / $37m DOM / $45m OS / $82m WW - The first Nut Job was one of those kids movies that benefited from being one of the few family-friendly options in town if Frozen had already been crossed off the list. No matter the reviews, these low openers always seem to get decent legs. I expect The Nut Job 2 to pretty much stay flat, dip a little, come and go.

American Made (September 29, 2017) - $24m OW / $91m DOM / $45m OS / $136m WW - Will most likely do well for a fall release crime thriller, could be a dark horse.

My Little Pony: The Movie (October 6, 2017) - $25m OW / $95m DOM / $47m OS / $142m WW - Despite a good-sized fanbase and the show's lengthy run, I think this will do decently at best because a lot of mass audiences probably aren't in tune with the love for the show. It's also coming from Lionsgate, who barely market their animated releases. Perhaps they'll make an exception for this one?

The Snowman (October 13, 2017) - $22m OW / $83m DOM / $51m OS / $134 million WW - Small-scale, mid-October thriller. Should do decently.

Geostorm (October 20, 2017) - $16m OW / $40m DOM / $78m OS / $118m WW - The long-delayed Geostorm's bad buzz probably won't have an effect on audiences, for it looks like it'll be a middle-of-the-road, October release action movie. Come and go.

Insidious: Chapter 4 (October 20, 2017) - $17m OW / $37m DOM / $64m OS / $101m WW - I don't expect a huge drop-off from the last one, as the series doesn't seem to be following the Paranormal Activity trajectory entirely.

Untitled Cloverfield Film (October 27, 2017) - $29m OW / $87m DOM / $73m OS / $160m WW - 10 Cloverfield Lane was an unusual film, it wasn't a true sequel to 2008's Cloverfield, but rather a follow-up that was a spiritual successor. A film that was in a similar vein. It's now clear that the Cloverfield series will be a set of unrelated sci-fi thriller tales, all connected by the name - like a feature-length Twilight Zone series. Will this third installment, a space-set thriller, be boosted by the name? Probably, but not by much. Cloverfield will probably remain a niche thing, but it's more than enough. Legs should be strong if the audience reception is similar to 10 Cloverfield Lane's.

Let It Snow (November 22, 2017) - $20m OW / $80m DOM / $34m OS / $114m WW - Based on a seemingly feel-good wintry romance, I expect it to open with ho-hum numbers and have excellent legs.

Jumanji (December 22, 2017) - $25m OW / $85m DOM / $142m OS / $227m WW - Despite The Rock starring, I think this rather unrelated reboot will alienate nostalgic-types and fans of the original, while also being another tossaway that's opening after Episode VIII.

The Six Billion Dollar Man (December 22, 2017) - $20m OW / $67m DOM / $54m OS / $121m WW - Though an example of classic TV, not too many younger folk are aware of the original Six Million Dollar Man. Its ideas have been done before in other stories, so I don't see much of a rush to see it.

The Greatest Showman on Earth (December 25, 2017) - $15m OW / $74m DOM / $31m OS / $104m WW - Will a musical take on P.T. Barnum attract most audiences? Probably not, but this has potential for holiday legs methinks.


#. STAR WARS: EPISODE VIII - $964 million
#. GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 2. - $481 million
#. BEAUTY AND THE BEAST - $462 million
#. JUSTICE LEAGUE - $393 million
#. SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING - $364 million
#. DESPICABLE ME 3 - $307 million
#. WONDER WOMAN - $301 million
#. THE FATE OF THE FURIOUS - $298 million
#. THOR: RAGNAROK - $271 million
#. COCO - $246 million
#. DUNKIRK - $224 million
#. KONG: SKULL ISLAND - $210 million
#. WAR OF THE PLANET OF THE APES - $207 million
#. THE LEGO BATMAN MOVIE - $194 million
#. CARS 3 - $186 million
#. LOGAN - $164 million
#. A BAD MOMS CHRISTMAS - $163 million
#. DEAD MEN TELL NO TALES - $160 million
#. ALIEN: COVENANT - $142 million
#. PITCH PERFECT 3 - $139 million
#. BLADE RUNNER 2049 - $136 million
#. FERDINAND - $133 million
#. LIVE BY NIGHT - $127 million
#. THE MUMMY - $126 million
#. FIFTY SHADES DARKER - $124 million
#. THE LEGO NINJAGO MOVIE - $115 million
#. THE STAR - $110 million
#. CAPTAIN UNDERPANTS - $108 million
#. THE BOSS BABY - $102 million
#. POWER RANGERS - $101 million
#. SMURFS: THE LOST VILLAGE - $100 million
#. IT - $100 million


Actuals (as of 2/20/2017)

#. SPLIT - $124 million
#. THE LEGO BATMAN MOVIE - $107 million
#. FIFTY SHADES DARKER - $91 million


* These are films whose predictions can be made after New Year's Eve. If it's announced what the undetermined film is after December 31st, then I will make a prediction for it. These are the exceptions to the general rule of my prediction lists...

Untitled Live-Action Disney Fairy Tale (7/28/2017)
Untitled Sony Event Film (9/15/2017)
Untitled WB PG-13 Comedy (12/22/2017)


  1. I feel that Transformers 5 is going to be like Alice trhougt the looking glass in terms of Box Office if you know what I mean

  2. Should probably alter your Cars 3 prediction.

    Especially after that teaser

  3. The Star making $327 million

    Ha ha don't make me laught

    Sorry, i'm such an asshole, but if this movie does more than 100M Tron 3 will happen

  4. Carrie Fisher just passed away. That might have some factor in Star Wars VIII's Box Office, you got four days to make any changes to your projections.

  5. At first, I wasn't expecting over 2 billion for Episode 8, but now that Carrie Fisher has unfortunately passed away (rest in peace), I'm expecting much bigger numbers. I think it will beat Titanic at the all-time chart!

  6. Nah, I can see Ferdinand doing the usual 200M. That the Blue Sky movies (that aren't Ice Age or Río) do