2016 Domestic Box Office Predictions

Every year, I make a set of box office predictions pertaining to the following year. I usually start writing them around this time, too - autumn. My rule is to not alter these predictions after midnight, December 31st. Why? Because I want to see how close or how far off I was once all of these films end their box office runs. It's my fun way of seeing how well I can predict the box office, and I invite you to make some predictions as well.

I do make some exceptions. If a film's release date sees a radical change after New Year's Day, I'll change the prediction. For example, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation was set for a Christmas 2015 release for a long time, so I made a prediction that factored in competition like Star Wars: The Force Awakens and how films perform during the holiday season. Sometime after New Year's Day, Paramount moved the film up to this past July, so I changed the prediction.

Other than that, I leave everything unaltered.

Here are my 2015 Domestic Box Office Predictions, for an example of how this all works...

Originally posted September 25, 2015...
Updates to come until December 31st...

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CAPTAIN AMERICA
CIVIL WAR
Walt Disney Pictures / Marvel Studios
May 6, 2016

Opening Weekend: $186 million
Domestic Box Office: $483 million
Overseas Box Office: $932 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,415 million

As this year has taught us, perhaps The Avengers over performed back in the summer of 2012. It's simple. The Avengers was unlike anything audiences had seen, a truly successful superhero team up film consisting of four radically different superheroes from their own solo movies, with two more thrown in. The Avengers was already locked to do seriously good business because of Iron Man alone, but it was definitely the novelty of Iron Man and other heroes from recent superhero films teaming up. The connectedness excited audiences, even people who don't normally hit the flicks. The Avengers was one of those types of films where everyone goes.

Avengers: Age of Ultron probably had no hopes of replicating that, simply because the novelty was gone the second time around. The Avengers already teamed up, so the people who don't normally hit the flicks who saw The Avengers said "Yeah, I'll just wait till it comes out on video/TV". But hey, Age of Ultron made $191 million on its opening weekend. Not far from its predecessor at all! It shows just how huge the Marvel brand is and was, three years after The Avengers.

With that, Captain America: Civil War may be a Cap-centric story, but it's going to star almost all of the Avengers. An Avengers 2.5, if you will. Combine that with the MCU's power, plus the story this promises, and you'll have another massive opener in Marvel's canon. As with most huge openings, legs should be alright at best, nothing spectacular... For many people already saw it on opening weekend. Marvel films usually score 2.5-2.7x multipliers, the bigger openers - Iron Man 3 and Age of Ultron - usually score weaker multipliers.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $179 million
Domestic Box Office: $408 million
Overseas Box Office: $745 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,153 million
(Close Date: September 22, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: Certainly nowhere near as leggy as I thought it was going to be, Civil War's opening weekend gross wasn't too far off from what I suspected. The Avengers remains that "summit" of the momentum mountain, and I don't think any MCU movie is going to open with that amount or higher in a long while. As such, Civil War's performance is still nonetheless impressive for a franchise that's thirteen films in... (7/21/2016)

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FINDING DORY
Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar
June 17, 2016

Opening Weekend: $132 million
Domestic Box Office: $460 million
Overseas Box Office: $831 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,291 million

This sounds insane. No different from other insane predictions I've made, but here it goes...

#1. Pixar. An original is usually locked to open with $60 million minimum. Just look at WALL-E, Up, Brave, and Inside Out. The latter of those films opened with $90 million. $90 million! More than highly anticipated prequel Monsters University! Then again, their latest original - The Good Dinosaur - opened kinda low, but I think that's due to the marketing, which was unusually weak for a Pixar film.

#2. Nostalgia. Finding Nemo was released in 2003. With lower ticket prices, no 3D or IMAX at its side, and not being based on a pre-existing IP, it grossed $339 million domestically. That adjusts to a staggering $457 million today. It's the most attended of Pixar's movies, even though Toy Story 3 grossed more seven years later with the aid of higher ticket prices and 3D/IMAX. Computer animated movies enjoyed a fad in the early 2000s, nowadays audiences are more choosy with CG films, but always pick Pixar. They have that built-in audience that guarantees a $60 million+ opening. Finding Nemo is still beloved to this day, and its then-record $70 million opening adjusts to $94 million today!

So I think $95 million is pretty much the floor for the sequel's opening weekend gross. However, I think it'll go much higher than that. Nostalgia can be a force to be reckoned with, and Finding Nemo is now 12 years old, will be 13 next summer when this film opens. People around my age who loved Nemo back then will go gaga over a sequel. Teens/young adults who normally shun animation will make an exception for a sequel to a film they loved when they were young. Toy Story 3 and Monsters University benefited from those types, they added an extra set of tens to the opening grosses. Also, there's a whole ton of kids who will be gung ho about the sequel. So add that, the teens, and the open-minded adults that make Pixar's movies successful, and you'll have a whale-sized opening!

Jurassic World more than proved that if you release a sequel/franchise entry to something 80s/90s kids saw when they were younger, they'll be back in full force alongside the younger people who didn't quite experience the very film when they were little. Finding Dory, like many a Pixar film, has that wide all-quadrant appeal. But how high does it go on opening weekend? A massive turnout for an animated feature is rare. The biggest opening adjusted is Shrek the Third with $148 million - that too had no 3D or IMAX, and much lower ticket prices, it came out in 2007. Most animated films don't open above $70 million nowadays. Outside of sequels, only Inside Out grossed more than that on opening weekend, shocking everyone.

A lot of American audiences still aren't onboard animation, and are only onboard when there's a craze or mania. Disney's Renaissance for example, along with the computer animated movie boom of the late 1990s and early-to-mid 2000s. Outside of these stretches, animated films still do very well thanks to a large amount of open-minded adults, but getting everyone invested - the people who make blockbusters open between $110-150 million - is a serious task. I'm not sure if Finding Dory will have all of just that, but it will have a lot of oomph based on nostalgia and Pixar alone. I'll be shocked if it breaks the opening weekend record for an animated film...

With a bigger opening, I see smaller legs. Toy Story 3, Pixar's biggest opener with $110 million, scored a good 3.77x multiplier. However, originals like Up, Cars, and Ratatouille scored above the sacred 4.0x multiplier. Still, with $460 million, it'll be the highest-earning animated film at the domestic box office unadjusted.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $135 million
Domestic Box Office: $486 million
Overseas Box Office: $541 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,027 million
(Close Date: December 8, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: Surprisingly was close on the opening weekend, and legs-wise, it did way better than I thought it would! It showed some unusual strength for a movie that opened with well over $100 million domestically! Worldwide, it was not the absolute titan I thought it would be. (1/4/2017)

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BATMAN V SUPERMAN
DAWN OF JUSTICE
Warner Bros. / DC / Cruel & Unusual Films
March 25, 2016

Opening Weekend: $179 million
Domestic Box Office: $424 million
Overseas Box Office: $775 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,199 million

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is something of a gamble for Warner Bros. and DC. Unlike Man of Steel, this film is truly the start of the DC expanded movie universe. The somewhat Nolan-esque Man of Steel - since Nolan was involved as producer and originator of the story - was most likely intended to be a standalone film until WB saw Marvel pull off their crazy plan. (The only ties are references to LexCorp and Wayne Ent., which were inserted during post-production.) Now with the wheels going the "shared movie universe" direction, Zack Snyder is really the only person back. Writer David S. Goyer was replaced by Chris Terrio of Argo fame, Nolan was mostly uninvolved hence the executive producer credit.

This is their Iron Man in a way, but it's less of a gamble because everyone knows Superman and Batman. Two Batman films grossed $1 billion worldwide in the last ten years, Man of Steel made a good $668 million worldwide.

Also, I think the film has some of that novelty factor that made The Avengers so big. Superman and Batman sharing the screen together, that alone will get people in the seats. How big will it open? The Avengers was completely new, which makes this film a little less "new" and "novel", but I still think Batman and Superman sharing the screen has quite the power. The other concern is, will audiences take well to another Dark Knight-like Batman? Or are they ready to see a new kind of Batman that doesn't seem Christopher Nolan-esque? The Avengers was definitely more inviting with its lighter tone, this film arguably isn't. Not that this is a bad thing, but you know audiences sometimes. Does it have The Avengers' super-wide appeal?

I think it'll open huge, but it won't come close to topping both Avengers films or Civil War, but the opening will still be amazing nonetheless. Legs-wise, if it's good and audiences like it, the multiplier should be in the 2.5x region considering how huge the opening is. Very rarely does such a big opener hang on, the only ones that do are the phenomenons, the juggernauts, the Avengers and Jurassic World-type pictures. I don't think Batman v Superman will really have that, but will have some staying power nonetheless. Enough to get it past $400 million domestically...

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $166 million
Domestic Box Office: $330 million
Overseas Box Office: $542 million
Worldwide Box Office: $872 million
(Close Date: June 16, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: As many of suspected, the opening for this was going to be huge, and it was... The legs were worse than I imagined, though. The overseas gross is even nearly $200 million off. Legs spoke volumes here. (7/21/2016)

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ROGUE ONE
A STAR WARS STORY
Walt Disney Pictures / Lucasfilm
December 16, 2016

Opening Weekend: $95 million
Domestic Box Office: $370 million
Overseas Box Office: $578 million
Worldwide Box Office: $948 million

The return of the saga of the galaxy far, far away was monolithic at the box office... So where does this film, a story set between the events of Revenge of the Sith and A New Hope, land? I think with some prequel-type stories, things can go either way. Some audiences will show up because they can see their favorite characters and worlds/stories again, but some sit prequels out because with prequels, you know how it's all going to turn out. I think Rogue One will get a bit of this, but not enough to hold it back from being a smash. Like The Force Awakens, it'll be the December event that rocks the box office, plus we are meeting a cast of characters we haven't seen before so it has that advantage.

Plus, it'll be nearly a full year after The Force Awakens, so it'll probably get its momentum from that alone. Big opening, holiday legs, guaranteed smash inside and out.

ACTUALS (as of 2/15/2017)
Opening Weekend: $155 million
Domestic Box Office: $527 million
Overseas Box Office: $520 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,048 million 

Post-Release Thoughts: 'Twas way bigger than I thought it was going to be. Definitely benefited from The Force Awakens momentum. (2/3/2017)

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MOANA
Walt Disney Animation Studios
November 23, 2016

Opening Weekend: $88 million
Domestic Box Office: $336 million
Overseas Box Office: $682 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,018 million

No doubt, Walt Disney Animation Studios is on a roll. Tangled began their new box office path, CG hits that critics and audiences alike love. Frozen was the juggernaut phenomenon, Big Hero 6 of course didn't replicate that success for obvious reasons, but it did very well thanks to Frozen goodwill and a strong marketing campaign that got audiences interested. Then when said audiences saw it opening weekend, good word-of-mouth did the rest of the work.

However, I think Frozen will remain Disney Animation's biggest modern hit for a long while. Some films might challenge it, but Frozen was that very film that everyone went to go see, even those who don't normally hit the flicks or animated films for that matter. Frozen didn't open huge though, it opened very well. It was the legs that really did the talking!

Look back at the Renaissance, you'll see that The Lion King was the summit. After all, it was the peak of Disney's rising popularity following the successes of The Little Mermaid, Beauty and the Beast, and Aladdin. People tend to forget that Pocahontas and The Hunchback of Notre Dame were hits in their own right, same with Mulan and Tarzan, just not the smashes that were Aladdin and The Lion King. Even if they were all received on the same level as The Lion King, they probably would not have outgrossed that very film. The Lion King's $312 million gross back in 1994 was mammoth not only for an animated film, but for a film, period.

Frozen did that worldwide more so than domestically. $400 million is excellent, but we live in a world where $500 million is the bar to reach. Back in 1994, $300 million was the high bar. Few movies outside of Titanic made between 1994 and 2004 took in $400 million domestically, and as for a $500 million movie? We didn't see one until 2008.

That all being said, Moana probably isn't going to outgross Frozen domestically, but it's going to put up one hell of a fight at the domestic box office. For starters, I see the opening as being bigger, but the legs much smaller... But still strong, for this is a November family-friendly animated release that is sure to satisfy damn near everyone who sees it. Plus, it'll be the first event-scale musical epic since Frozen. Disney Animation wisely gave audiences time to breathe, unlike in the 90s where every new movie was a carbon copy of The Little Mermaid/Beauty and the Beast. It gets tiresome every calendar year, you know? In between Frozen and this, there's techy superhero story Big Hero 6 and the upcoming animal action film Zootopia. Plus, the animation playing field is bigger than it was in 1995. Disney dominated then, while other studios made Disney wannabes or forgettable kids' flicks that barely anyone saw. Not the case anymore.

Around mid-1995, before Toy Story came out and gave audiences tired of the Disney formula something new to turn to, the competition - FernGully, We're Back!, Thumbelina, The Pebble and the Penguin, etc. - was mostly imitating Disney. Nowadays, competition imitates Pixar, DreamWorks, and probably Illumination. The animated epic musical is kind of fresh again nowadays, and I think Frozen benefited from that plus the 80s/90s kids' nostalgia, and just the fact that it looked great to audiences. Moana will have that on its side. Now it all lies in the marketing, and so far, Disney Animation has been scoring films that open above $45 million...

So a big opening, great but-not-as-good-as-Frozen legs, big grosser.

ACTUALS (as of 2/15/2017)
Opening Weekend: $55 million
Domestic Box Office: $243 million
Overseas Box Office: $321 million
Worldwide Box Office: $565 million 

Post-Release Thoughts: Far from being the semi-Frozen smash I thought it would be, it still did very darned well! It looks like history repeated itself, in that the experimental animal picture beat the seemingly-obvious winner. (2/3/2017)

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INDEPENDENCE DAY
RESURGENCE
20th Century Fox / Centropolis / TSG
June 24, 2016

Opening Weekend: $118 million
Domestic Box Office: $312 million
Overseas Box Office: $814 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,126 million

This year's Jurassic World showed me that nostalgia can sometimes be a force to be reckoned with. Here we had a sequel in a franchise that hadn't seen a new installment for well over a decade. Jurassic Park III was released 14 years before Jurassic World.

Jurassic Park grossed over $900 million worldwide back in 1993. A time when there was no digital 3D or IMAX theaters showing mainstream Hollywood movies, the international market was nowhere as big as what it is today. A good chunk of that full gross came from a then-garguantan $357 million gross in North America, which adjusts to $718 million today! The sequels, released shortly afterwards, didn't fare as well.

I firmly believe that if Jurassic World arrived in 2008 rather than this year, it would've performed well but nowhere near as well as it did. The film was a juggernaut, it was the new Avengers. More than anything, it was an installment in a film franchise that began in the early 1990s. 90s nostalgia is in full-swing amongst us 20-30 year old 80s/90s babies, and Jurassic World opened during the perfect storm. It was a new Jurassic Park movie, it had dinosaurs, it was a PG-13 action blockbuster with something in it for everyone, and again... It was Jurassic Park and it came out recently. That, I believe, was what made it such a smash hit on opening weekend. It doesn't matter that Jurassic Park's once-groundbreaking spectacle has been imitated several times over the decades, it didn't matter that the newest film has nothing new in it... It was a new Jurassic Park movie, enough said!

So I wonder, will this 90s nostalgia help the long-overdue Independence Day sequel?

Independence Day made $800 million back in 1996, the market was about the same as it was in 1993. No 3D, IMAX, overseas market wasn't as big, etc. The domestic gross alone adjusts to $577 million today, also pretty huge! However, Independence Day arguably isn't quite as beloved as Jurassic Park, though it is well-known and a bit on the iconic side. Jurassic World had a whole franchise on its side, the first installment's good reviews from back in the day, lots of people love Jurassic Park, plus dinosaurs! Independence Day does not have a lot of that. Independence Day, which got mixed reviews back in 1996, is about an alien invasion, and so many movies made since that 1996 action blockbuster have imitated it to death. Dinos you don't see much of in action blockbusters. For nostalgic audiences, that won't really matter, because it's a specific alien invasion movie. It's a sequel to an alien invasion movie that they saw when they were young, one that they probably liked or loved. A lot of the original cast is also back.

I think Independence Day: Resurgence will indeed get some of that 90s nostalgia boost when it opens, but it won't be anywhere near as big as Jurassic World nor will gross anything near the amount its predecessor did, adjusted. I expect legs to be okay as well, which will still land it in the top tier. Overseas, it's going to explode. If the first one could make $500 million overseas worldwide without 3D, IMAX, significantly lower ticket prices, and less territories... Yeah, this will easily blow up overseas.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $41 million
Domestic Box Office: $103 million
Overseas Box Office: $282 million
Worldwide Box Office: $386 million
(Close Date: September 15, 2016)


Post-Release Thoughts: ... I have little else to say. Totally overshot this one. I guess 90s nostalgia didn't come to this one's aide, and perhaps Will Smith's no-show hurt a lot as well. (1/4/2017)

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X-MEN: APOCALYPSE
20th Century Fox / Marvel Entertainment
May 27, 2016

Opening Weekend: $121 million
Domestic Box Office: $301 million
Overseas Box Office: $599 million
Worldwide Box Office: $900 million

The X-Men film franchise, I think, is comparable to the Fast & Furious franchise in some ways.

The first two X-Men films did quite well, but X-Men: The Last Stand was a dip, quality-wise. It still did well, mostly because it scored a huge opening back in 2006. X-Men Origins: Wolverine was also not well received, but it benefited from a strong opening no matter how weak the legs were.

Two years later, the X-Men series came back in the quality department with X-Men: First Class. The prequel opened very low for an X-Men film, nowhere near the $80 million region the previous three films scored, to say nothing of the attendance of the first X-Men on opening weekend. Legs were alright, nothing spectacular.

X-Men: Days of Future Past opened pretty damn big, back in the $80-100 million region, though adjusted that $90 million opening was nowhere near The Last Stand's adjusted opening gross - $127 million. Perhaps this next outing will get there?

Now... Fast & Furious. That took a dip, box office-wise. The third installment, not featuring much of the cast of one and two, couldn't crack $70 million domestically. Three years later, Fast & Furious got the cast back and as a result it opened with $70 million, sending Tokyo Drift into the dirt. The franchise saw a real restart. Fast Five opened with $86 million, Fast & Furious 6 took off with $97 million. Had Paul Walker not died, Furious 7 still would've easily opened with more than $110 million. One of those rising franchises...

I see the same happening for X-Men: Apocalypse. Ho-hum opening for First Class, much better opening for Days of Future Past, big opening with Apocalypse. Legs will be the usual for this series, a little lower than Days of Future Past given the much bigger opening... But still a smash for the X-Men series nonetheless, plus that beats The Last Stand's adjusted gross!

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $65 million
Domestic Box Office: $155 million
Overseas Box Office: $379 million
Worldwide Box Office: $534 million
(Close Date: July 28, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: Seemingly disappointing at first glance, it looks as if X-Men: Days of Future Past opened so high because it was the long-awaited reunion of the original cast paired with the new one. With Apocalypse, it was back to business. It performed similarly to every other post-2009 X-Men film. Way way off here, even with the overseas gross. (7/21/2016) 

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ZOOTOPIA
Walt Disney Animation Studios
March 4, 2016

Opening Weekend: $67 million
Domestic Box Office: $264 million
Overseas Box Office: $307 million
Worldwide Box Office: $571 million

Out of the two films Walt Disney Animation Studios is releasing this year, this one is the slight wild card. However, Disney Animation had no issue with Wreck-It Ralph and Big Hero 6, films that went against what audiences perceive of Disney animated films: Musicals, fairy tales, love stories, and such. They worked because the marketing was good and they were able to reach audiences on opening weekend (Ralph made $49m, Big Hero 6 opened with $56m), and Zootopia's marketing is looking to do the same. I think it'll open bigger than both, given the premise and the new trailer. The new trailer reportedly is bringing down the house at the Star Wars: The Force Awakens screenings, and I think that could give it a significant boost on opening weekend.

Zootopia has little competition outside of blockbusters. The Little Prince is getting its stateside debut a few weeks later, but that shouldn't be too much of threat, because it doesn't look like Paramount is going to give it much of a marketing push... Other than that, nothing really until Disney's live-action Jungle Book hits in mid-April. Disney Animation films have had good-to-excellent legs as of late, so I think Zootopia will open strong, surprise people, and then garner word-of-mouth that's in line with a lot of the previous WDAS films.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $75 million
Domestic Box Office: $341 million
Overseas Box Office: $681 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1,023 million
(Close Date: August 4, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: What I thought would end up being a good-sized hit for Disney Animation ended up being a titan, thankfully so. The opening was close, but I didn't expect the picture to pull a 4x multiplier, let alone a 4.5x multiplier! Overseas it made twice what I imagined... So glad I was off on this one! (7/21/2016)

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JASON BOURNE
Universal Pictures
July 29, 2016

Opening Weekend: $80 million
Domestic Box Office: $263 million
Overseas Box Office: $221 million
Worldwide Box Office: $484 million

The return of the real Bourne. Matt Damon's back as Jason Bourne, Paul Greengrass is directing, I expect this to be a big hit so long as it looks great from the trailers. The Bourne Ultimatum's gross adjusts to a strong $277 million today, so I expect this to perform similarly. Plus, it has been almost 10 years. Quite the wait!

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $59 million
Domestic Box Office: $162 million
Overseas Box Office: $250 million
Worldwide Box Office: $412 million
(Close Date: October 27, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: Performed closer to The Bourne Legacy than I thought, though I was closer on the overseas gross. (1/4/2017)

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THE SECRET LIFE
OF PETS
Universal Pictures / Illumination
July 8, 2016

Opening Weekend: $60 million
Domestic Box Office: $255 million
Overseas Box Office: $279 million
Worldwide Box Office: $534 million

Make no mistake, Illumination Entertainment is an animation force to be reckoned with. Despicable Me had a great opening back in 2010 and had stellar legs, its sequel - which opened even higher - was a rare huge opener that happened to have a nearly 4.5x multiplier. Non-summer releases like The Lorax and Hop didn't have those kinds of legs, and neither did Minions since it had a massive opening (which I think, sometimes, takes away from the legs - as more people saw it opening weekend) and ultimately ended up not satisfying everyone the way Despicable Me 1 & 2 did.

I think that with a summer opening and a simple but appealing premise, The Secret Life of Pets will be the studio's next Despicable Me. The teaser's already a hit, and Universal's sure to aggressively plug it till the day it comes out. Then, if it satisfies audiences the way Despicable did, then it'll have some insane legs.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $104 million
Domestic Box Office: $368 million
Overseas Box Office: $507 million
Worldwide Box Office: $875 million
(Close Date: December 29, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: Illumination and Universal certainly have a knack for hit-making, don't they? Huge opening, far bigger than what I expected, and still ridiculous legs and a fine worldwide performance. Way off. (1/4/2017) 

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THE JUNGLE BOOK
Walt Disney Pictures
April 15, 2016

Opening Weekend: $73 million
Domestic Box Office: $247 million
Overseas Box Office: $389 million
Worldwide Box Office: $636 million

Disney's live-action remakes have hit with lots of audiences, and while some have had better legs (Maleficent) than others (Cinderella, Alice), The Jungle Book ought to hang on given the setting and subject matter. It'll also catch on worldwide, easily. I think it's guaranteed to open big, again, these re-imaginings are in. The teaser and the D23 preview were met with enthusiasm.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $103 million
Domestic Box Office: $364 million
Overseas Box Office: $602 million
Worldwide Box Office: $966 million
(Close Date: September 29, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: Much mightier than I thought, on all fronts. Really undershot this one. (7/21/2016)

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STAR TREK BEYOND
Paramount / Skydance / Bad Robot
July 22, 2016

Opening Weekend: $72 million
Domestic Box Office: $233 million
Overseas Box Office: $269 million
Worldwide Box Office: $502 million

Some question why Star Trek Into Darkness opened with significantly less than its predecessor. Maybe perhaps its predecessor, being fresh and new at the time of its 2009 release, over performed a bit. A $75 million opening and a 3.4x multiplier is certainly nothing to scoff at, and it did indicate that staying power was there, so it performed unlike many blockbusters.

Technically, Star Trek Into Darkness did damn well. What it did not do was increase at the box office. Sometimes we expect sequels to seemingly very popular movies to open super-high on opening weekend (I predicted around $80-90 million for it way back when), but some sequels just stay flat at the domestic box office. Star Trek Into Darkness did just that, plus with 3D added, ticket sales were a considerable dip. Still, it managed to open nearly as high as the first one and had similar legs.

Of course, speculation was everywhere. Was it the marketing that made it open low? Was it the four-year gap? I personally think it was just the first one over performing a bit, and also the marketing. The trailers emphasized the dark and grittiness of the picture more so than anything else, and that could've alienated some.

The teaser for this film on the other hand emphasizes fun and action, with a vibe that's not too far removed from Guardians of the Galaxy. I think this could help the film, and make it appeal more to non-Trekkies, and I suppose the fans who aren't fond of the trailer will still go anyway. So I expect an opening that's a little bigger than Into Darkness' opening, and good legs.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $59 million
Domestic Box Office: $158 million
Overseas Box Office: $179 million
Worldwide Box Office: $338 million
(Close Date: October 20, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: Sadly a bit of a disaster in terms of legs, which is a real shock considering how well the previous two did in very crowded summers. I guess these times are different. (1/4/2017) 

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FANTASTIC BEASTS
AND WHERE TO
FIND THEM
Warner Bros. / Heyday Films
November 18, 2016

Opening Weekend: $72 million
Domestic Box Office: $230 million
Overseas Box Office: $398 million
Worldwide Box Office: $628 million

A return to the world of Harry Potter, a beast of its own, pun shamelessly intended. Given that this is a spin-off, I can't see it opening near the adjusted opening weekend totals of the Potter films (the lowest one being $87 million, for Half-Blood Prince), but that's okay. It should still open really high given the Harry Potter brand, a promising cast, and an original story/script penned by J.K. Rowling herself that's about a whole new set of characters. With a near-Thanksgiving release date, I expect some decent legs as well.

ACTUALS (as of 2/15/2017)
Opening Weekend: $74 million
Domestic Box Office: $232 million
Overseas Box Office: $578 million
Worldwide Box Office: $811 million 

Post-Release Thoughts: Nearly spot-on with the domestic prediction, but waaaay off on the worldwide gross. (2/3/2017)

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DOCTOR STRANGE
Walt Disney Pictures / Marvel Studios
November 4, 2016

Opening Weekend: $79 million
Domestic Box Office: $213 million
Overseas Box Office: $295 million
Worldwide Box Office: $508 million

I see this film being similar to Guardians of the Galaxy, a superhero film that doesn't seem like the same old thing. Doctor Strange is part of the supernatural side of the Marvel universe, something that hasn't been fully tapped. We have our earthbound stories in the Iron Man and Captain America chapters, and the cosmic ones in Thor and Guardians of the Galaxy. This is something that's entirely new. It's been emphasized many times by Marvel that this will be different, mind bending, psychedelic, trippy, all kinds of oddball...

This, I think, gives it an advantage over something like Ant-Man. Outside of Ant-Man, the only non-sequel to open during Phase 2 of the Marvel Cinematic Universe was Guardians of the Galaxy. That opened with $94 million, whereas Ant-Man opened with $57 million. Ant-Man's opening is actually on par with Phase 1's non-Iron Man films: Thor and Captain America: The First AvengerAnt-Man arguably looked like more of the same, with its trailers showing a guy who could shrink down to the size of ant and not much else. Guardians on the other hand had space, talking raccoons and trees, and a groovy 70s soundtrack. I think that Doctor Strange will fall somewhere between those two films, opening weekend-wise, but on the higher end.

Legs should be the usual for an MCU film if good, around 2.7-2.8x. Worldwide, I think it'll perform more like the first Thor than something like First Avenger or Ant-Man.

ACTUALS (as of 1/15/2017)
Opening Weekend: $85 million
Domestic Box Office: $232 million
Overseas Box Office: $441 million
Worldwide Box Office: $673 million 

Post-Release Thoughts: A little close domestically, but overseas this really took off! (2/3/2017)

--


SING
Universal / Illumination
December 21, 2016

Opening Weekend: $46 million
Domestic Box Office: $212 million
Overseas Box Office: $285 million
Worldwide Box Office: $497 million

2016 marks the first year Illumination will release two films in one calendar year, and since Illumination seems to have a hot track record, I feel this will perform no differently than Despicable Me or The Secret Life of Pets. Unlike Pets, I don't think this one will be loaded upfront, but will have those holiday season legs. It seems like a departure from their cute comedies, it's a musical... And not a Disney-style musical, but rather a jukebox musical that's about a singing competition.

With all of that, I think it has the makings of a leggy hit. The opening should still be strong, especially for an original non-Pixar animated release.

ACTUALS (as of 2/15/2017)
Opening Weekend: $35 million
Domestic Box Office: $265 million
Overseas Box Office: $236 million
Worldwide Box Office: $502 million

Post-Release Thoughts: Did a little more than I expected, and was even leggier! (2/3/2017)

--

PASSENGERS
Sony Pictures / Start Motion / Original Film 
December 21, 2016

Opening Weekend: $43 million
Domestic Box Office: $206 million
Overseas Box Office: $364 million
Worldwide Box Office: $570 million

Time for an out-on-a-limb prediction.

This is an original sci-fi romance film set in outer space, and one that stars Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt. It also comes from the director of the Oscar runner The Imitation Game, one of those super-leggy films that opened in a few theaters and as it expanded, it grew. Passengers looks to be a wider release, and it's opening around the holidays, so first and foremost I expect some big holiday legs.

Anyways, I think this could be the next Interstellar or Martian-type film. Good outer space-set sci-fis done right open well and have great legs, something that Gravity taught us back in 2013. Those other two films kept the torch blowing, so I expect this - with it's premise and all - to keep it flaming. I think this will be the big surprise sleeper of the year, and possibly an early Oscar contender...

ACTUALS (as of 2/15/2017)
Opening Weekend: $14 million
Domestic Box Office: $98 million
Overseas Box Office: $195 million
Worldwide Box Office: $293 million

Post-Release Thoughts: Not the break-out film I thought it was going to be, it was still something of a little sleeper, despite the picture's big budget. (2/3/2017) 

--


KUNG FU PANDA 3
20th Century Fox / DreamWorks Animation
January 29, 2016

Opening Weekend: $55 million
Domestic Box Office: $201 million
Overseas Box Office: $612 million
Worldwide Box Office: $813 million

Kung Fu Panda was a surprise hit for DreamWorks back in 2008. Prior to that, it seemed like their original non-sequel films were dwindling a bit at the box office. Kung Fu Panda, thanks to strong marketing and a lot of appeal, opened pretty high and because it was very good, it had good legs and was able to hold its own against Pixar's WALL-E. You would think the sequel would see a big increase, given that sequels to popular animated films have done this in the past. Toy Story 2 made quite a bit more than the first one, Shrek 2 outgrossed its predecessor by a country mile.

But of course, some animated sequels don't enjoy that kind of domestic box office performance. Madagascar 2 was just that for DreamWorks, it opened much higher than its predecessor but had unusually weak legs. Kung Fu Panda 2 opened with significantly less than its predecessor, the performance was even weaker when you look at ticket sales and the fact that the sequel was shown in 3D. What went wrong? I say lackluster marketing and a poor choice of release date, the latter of which the third installment does not have. Maybe perhaps Kung Fu Panda did too good and the sequel had no hopes of repeating that?

Late January 2016 gives the film a lot of space, and nothing animated and family-friendly opens until March, Disney Animation's Zootopia. The marketing so far is straightforward, and it doesn't have to do battle with a bigger film that'll suck in all the teens and adults. Legs should be significantly better than the first two as well, as it has much more room breathe.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $41 million
Domestic Box Office: $143 million
Overseas Box Office: $376 million
Worldwide Box Office: $519 million
(Close Date: July 21, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: Instead of increasing and regaining some lost mojo, this one dipped a little more. Even overseas, where the previous films fared excellently. Still a fine gross for the film. (7/21/2016)

--


SUICIDE SQUAD
Warner Bros. / DC / Atlas
August 5, 2016

Opening Weekend: $77 million
Domestic Box Office: $194 million
Overseas Box Office: $266 million
Worldwide Box Office: $460 million

I think Suicide Squad has the potential to open well based on the concept alone. This really hasn't been done before in the comic book movie world, or really in the blockbuster world: Take a bunch of villains and have them headline their own movie? I'm sure that alone will get a lot of audiences interested, as the comic book fanbase will most likely be there. I think this is similar to something like Guardians of the Galaxy or the first Iron Man, just something that's fresh and new.

Even better, these are DC villains, some of the most iconic in the world: The Joker, Harley Quinn, in addition to several others. It'll also have Batman v Superman, assuming that really takes off - which it should - behind it. Its sizzle reel certainly impressed, and an edited version will most likely be the proper trailer. I think that alone will get audiences on board.

Legs will most likely depend on the overall quality, and I'd be a little shocked to see a movie where we kind of root for the villains to score a big multiplier. Right now I'll stick with the standard blockbuster 2 1/2x multiplier.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $133 million
Domestic Box Office: $325 million
Overseas Box Office: $420 million
Worldwide Box Office: $745 million
(Close Date: November 10, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: The performance was almost Deadpool 2.0, something I expected... But back when I thought Deadpool would open with a certain amount! While probably a disappointment to Warner Bros., it outperformed a lot of wild expectations made over a year ago. (1/4/2017) 

--


GHOSTBUSTERS
Sony Pictures / Village Roadshow / Pascal Pictures
July 15, 2016

Opening Weekend: $61 million
Domestic Box Office: $193 million
Overseas Box Office: $201 million
Worldwide Box Office: $394 million

Ghostbusters is interesting to look at, considering that the first film was another one of those juggernauts. One of those films that everyone went to see. The original, back in 1984, opened with $13 million and then climbed its way to $229 million. That adjusts to $571 million today! So how did the sequel do?

$29 million opening, $112 million final gross... And this was five years later. Adjusted, that final total is $237 million. A fine gross, but indeed a step drop-off from its predecessor. Ghostbusters II opened with twice as much as its predecessor, but it didn't hang on. It wasn't that go-to movie that the first one was, and it's often agreed that quality-wise it was a step down as well.

So this all begs the question... Now that it has been over 25 years since that film opened, how will this reboot do? Despite being an all-new story with an all-new, female cast, it seems like it'll be staying true to Ghostbusters. Perhaps nostalgia will be on this film's side, much like how it was on Jurassic World's side. The Internet is indeed split about the whole idea of the film, but the general public will be there if the film looks great or respectful of the classic. Plus you have the new generations too and everyone else in-between. Who doesn't know what Ghostbusters is? It's iconic, and I think that alone will make this movie open really well...

However, I don't see something as big as Jurassic World. Not by a long shot, but again, the nostalgia will be strong with this one.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $46 million
Domestic Box Office: $128 million
Overseas Box Office: $100 million
Worldwide Box Office: $229 million 
(Close Date: November 10, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: If not for that budget, this performance wouldn't be too awful, but yeesh... It really seemed to stall out both domestically and worldwide. (1/4/2017) 

--


TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES
OUT OF THE SHADOWS
Paramount / Platinum Dunes / Gamma / Mednick / Heavy Metal
June 3, 2016

Opening Weekend: $71 million
Domestic Box Office: $193 million
Overseas Box Office: $330 million
Worldwide Box Office: $523 million

Despite the stronger reception the trailer got, I think this sequel will stay flat. The first one was surprisingly kind of a leggy hit with its 2.9x multiplier, showing that reviews don't always matter... But it didn't seem to be one of those "immediately come back to it" movies. TMNT is a strong brand anyway, so solid business for this one, but I don't see a huge increase or leap ahead of the first film.
  
ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $35 million
Domestic Box Office: $82 million
Overseas Box Office: $163 million
Worldwide Box Office: $245 million
(Close Date: September 8, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: Definitely a case of one-and-done, which we saw a lot of in 2016. Way, way off. (1/4/2017) 

--


DEADPOOL
20th Century Fox / Marvel Entertainment
TSG / The Donners' Company
February 12, 2016

Opening Weekend: $68 million
Domestic Box Office: $187 million
Overseas Box Office: $236 million
Worldwide Box Office: $423 million

Another fresh and new superhero/blockbuster film, and its trailer definitely impressed. Like Suicide Squad, I think this will benefit from being fresh and new. With one look at the opening for Fox's own Fantastic Four (without bad buzz and reviews, I still think it would've opened below $50 million) and the very good but not huge opening Marvel Studios' Ant-Man scored, you can see that "just another superhero movie" or "just another origin story" isn't going to cut it anymore. Something like Guardians of the Galaxy, with its big $94 million opening, didn't look like more of the same. Neither does this, nor does Suicide Squad. Hence, I think both will open pretty damn well. This, a little less so given its definite R rating.

Its legs should be decent too, not the greatest, but certainly above the 2.5x multiplier Fox's Marvel films seem to consistently get. I think word-of-mouth will be a little stronger for this, given the whole nature of Deadpool and just how irreverent and hilarious and off-the-wall the film will be. The out-of-the-way release date also gives it a lot of time.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $132 million
Domestic Box Office: $363 million
Overseas Box Office: $417 million
Worldwide Box Office: $780 million
(Close Date: June 16, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: Certainly a big breakout hit, bigger than I would've ever expected. Deadpool came on as something fresh and new, in addition to being a legitimate Deadpool movie that fans have been waiting and waiting for. Fox really scored with the marketing on this one, and for a movie that opened very big, the legs aren't half-bad. (4/3/2016)

--


ALICE THROUGH
THE LOOKING GLASS
Walt Disney Pictures / Roth Films
May 27, 2016

Opening Weekend: $75 million
Domestic Box Office: $184 million
Overseas Box Office: $724 million
Worldwide Box Office: $908 million

2010's Tim Burton-directed Alice in Wonderland benefited from what many have called the "perfect storm"... Now, in summer 2009, when the first trailer showed up, the film looked like a must-see. It was probably guaranteed back then to open with over $50 million domestically...

Then something called Avatar happened. A phenomenon juggernaut smash hit that everybody and their brother went to go and see, it's the highest grossing film of all-time. It was in 3D, and for many audiences that was their first legitimate 3D film. A 3D boom immediately began, so what was the first big 3D release after Avatar? Alice in Wonderland. Couple that with the already excellent marketing and nothing else blockbuster-like playing all throughout winter 2010, and there's the reason why it opened with a staggering $116 million...

Legs were alright at best.

Definitely novel in 2010, not so much anymore, what with many new adaptations of fairy tales and classic stories that people knew as kids thanks to the Disney animated classics following its lead. Disney themselves have done this, with Maleficent and Cinderella, both good-sized hits. They also updated another story that's a childhood favorite (which they didn't adapt as an animated classic, Disney adapted this story into a cult live-action film in 1985) with Oz The Great and Powerful, which also did great business. None of them, however, came close to Alice domestically or worldwide.

Neither, I think, will this. The opening should be very good, a bit above Maleficent and Cinderella given that a "first one" already exists. But legs won't be anything spectacular. Overseas grosses are going to help this one, big time. There just doesn't seem to be mass demand for it here, and I get the sense that the 2010 hit has faded a bit.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $26 million
Domestic Box Office: $77 million
Overseas Box Office: $219 million
Worldwide Box Office: $296 million
(Close Date: September 1, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: Way off. I thought they'd still get in some audiences, but from the looks of it, 2010's Alice in Wonderland truly was a one-and-done thing, and that audiences who saw didn't love it and didn't clamor for more. (7/21/2016) 

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THE BFG
Walt Disney Pictures / Amblin
DreamWorks SKG / Walden Media
July 1, 2016

Opening Weekend: $41 million
Domestic Box Office: $159 million
Overseas Box Office: $279 million
Worldwide Box Office: $438 million

Disney's live-action division had it rough in the recent years with live-action pictures that aren't remakes of animated classics. Films like Tomorrowland, The Lone Ranger, John Carter of Mars, TRON: Legacy, and Prince of Persia. Those films were mostly undone by poor marketing and the fact that they all cost way too much. Perhaps pictures like those weren't meant to make $500 million worldwide...

The BFG marks Spielberg's last film for Disney for the time being, and it is also the final film written by E.T. screenwriter Melissa Mathison. The teaser emphasizes Spielberg's involvement, and is already more successful than the marketing campaigns for those live-action flops. Plus, the Road Dahl connection helps, even if The BFG isn't as well-known as, say Matilda or Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.

... But I don't see it exploding on opening weekend, but I see it opening higher than $35 million. Those previous flops - barring TRON: Legacy - didn't open above that number. The BFG seems like it'll skew the family audience more than those other films, most of which were rated PG-13, so it could garner strong legs despite some heavy competition. Tomorrowland also went for families with its PG rating, but Tomorrowland was more of a thematic sci-fi story, and those tend to be divisive. This movie is sandwiched between Finding Dory and Illumination's Secret Life of Pets. I reckon Disney will put all of the marketing muscle into Dory, and leave this one hanging a bit. PG-13 blockbusters Legend of Tarzan and Independence Day: Resurgance could also possibly affect it.

I get the sense, however, that the movie will stand on its own. Spielberg scores with family films, so I don't see this not hanging on.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $18 million
Domestic Box Office: $55 million
Overseas Box Office: $121 million
Worldwide Box Office: $176 million
(Close Date: October 13, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: Sadly another victim of Disney's selective marketing department. Way off. (1/4/2017) 

--


THE LEGEND OF TARZAN
Warner Bros. / Heyday Films
July 1, 2016

Opening Weekend: $57 million
Domestic Box Office: $159 million
Overseas Box Office: $388 million
Worldwide Box Office: $547 million

Retellings of familiar classic stories are all the rage, until something like Pan comes along, one of Warner Bros.' own which happened to crash and burn. The Legend of Tarzan on the other hand doesn't seem to have too much going against it, outside of nasty rumors and hearsay. With the promo materials out, it appears to be another big budget spectacle that should look cool to audiences. A big budget live-action Tarzan story of this caliber hasn't been made yet, so that could be on its side. I expect the legs to be sturdy at best after a pretty good opening haul.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $38 million
Domestic Box Office: $126 million
Overseas Box Office: $229 million
Worldwide Box Office: $355 million
(Close Date: September 15, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: Wasn't as big as I predicted, but still did respectable business, but not enough to top the $180 million budget. (1/4/2017) 

--


NEIGHBORS 2
SORORITY RISING
Universal Pictures / Point Grey / Good Universe
May 20, 2016

Opening Weekend: $58 million
Domestic Box Office: $156 million
Overseas Box Office: $121 million
Worldwide Box Office: $277 million

The first one opened very well and was pretty leggy, so I expect the sequel to open a little higher but the multiplier should be about the same, if not a bit less. Another somewhat flat sequel performance. It won't matter, the film probably cost the same as its predecessor so they're all set.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $21 million
Domestic Box Office: $55 million
Overseas Box Office: $50 million
Worldwide Box Office: $106 million
(Close Date: July 14, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: Was the first Neighbors, a very leggy film, just a one-and-done thing too? I would've thought with it performing so well and garnering good reviews, that the second one would've performed similarly. (7/21/2016)

--


MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 2
Universal Pictures / Gold Circle / HBO Films / Playtone
March 25, 2016

Opening Weekend: $42 million
Domestic Box Office: $155 million
Overseas Box Office: $205 million
Worldwide Box Office: $360 million

My Big Fat Greek Wedding is a prime example of a sleeper hit...

It was a limited release for many weeks, but it played so well on less than 1,000 screens across the domestic territories. When it expanded, it was one of those films that didn't drop nor really rise. Each weekend it grossed around the same amount, it went on and on and on... Its legs were ridiculous. The film, which had opened with less than $1 million, had finished up with $241 million...

Unlike its predecessor, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 is getting a wide release thanks to Universal. The original was distributed independently. So I see a good-sized opening, and good legs, no performance like the original's though.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $17 million
Domestic Box Office: $59 million
Overseas Box Office: $29 million
Worldwide Box Office: $88 million
(Close Date: May 26, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: A revival sequel that also didn't cut it. I still thought that with the original being this sleeper that's apparently still liked well enough, that the sequel would do some fantastic business. As such, it did just okay. (7/21/2016) 

--

 
STORKS
Warner Animation Group
September 23, 2016

Opening Weekend: $42 million
Domestic Box Office: $153 million
Overseas Box Office: $209 million
Worldwide Box Office: $362 million

Warner Animation's second film, and it could benefit from the success of The Lego Movie. Without it, it still has a very fun teaser on its side and it looks to be a promising film, but I suspect the opening should be in line with most non-Pixar animated films in this day and age, but with strong legs given that it has slim competition until DreamWorks opens Trolls in early November.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $21 million
Domestic Box Office: $72 million
Overseas Box Office: $109 million
Worldwide Box Office: $182 million 
(Close Date: January 12, 2017)

Post-Release Thoughts: Warner Bros. really put little thought into this one, the marketing was mostly meh, and the opening was half of what I predicted. Still leggy, though. (1/4/2017)

--


THE REVENANT
20th Century Fox / Regency / Anonymous Content
RatPac-Dune Entertainment
January 8, 2016 (Wide)

Opening Weekend: $32 million
Domestic Box Office: $153 million
Overseas Box Office: $198 million
Worldwide Box Office: $351 million

With strong trailers and a wide release coming off of a limited Christmas 2015 run, I think The Revenant ought to benefit from strong buzz and presumably strong critical reception, as it seems like a prime Oscar 2015 front-runner. With its out of the way release date and its great trailers, it's sure to have excellent legs.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $39 million
Domestic Box Office: $183 million
Overseas Box Office: $348 million
Worldwide Box Office: $532 million
(Close Date: May 26, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: Leggier than I expected, though it opened close to what I expected. Wow at the overseas gross, too! (4/3/2016)

--


NOW YOU SEE ME 2
Lionsgate / Summit
June 10, 2016

Opening Weekend: $46 million
Domestic Box Office: $147 million
Overseas Box Office: $279 million
Worldwide Box Office: $426 million

The first one opened small but was very leggy, this one should open bigger but have weaker legs.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $22 million
Domestic Box Office: $65 million
Overseas Box Office: $266 million
Worldwide Box Office: $331 million
(Close Date: August 25, 2016) 

--


THE CONJURING 2
Warner Bros. / New Line / The Safran Co. / Evergreen Media
June 10, 2016

Opening Weekend: $59 million
Domestic Box Office: $145 million
Overseas Box Office: $196 million
Worldwide Box Office: $341 million

The Conjuring was a big hit for many good reasons, one of them being that the film was very good and not another throwaway horror film. A lot of cheaply-made horror films come out every year, and most of them appeal to teens looking to see something during a dead weekend. It doesn't matter if the movies are low quality, they make it back in the opening day alone. The Conjuring on the other had very good legs for a horror film, on top of a great opening!

With that success behind it, the sequel should indeed open higher. How much higher, though? If you look at Paranormal Activity and Insidious, you'll see that their first installments opened very soft but had great word-of-mouth. Then their sequels opened significantly higher, only to have lower multipliers. Since The Conjuring already opened big two summers back, would it soar? I think it would go a little higher, but not too high. Most horror films don't open higher than $50 million, the adjusted totals for films like The Sixth Sense don't really exceed that either.

With a bigger opening I see a weaker multiplier, but if the film is on the same level of quality as it is predecessor - which it most likely will be, what with James Wan back at the helm - it will still hold on. The original did considerably well overseas, so I can see this doing just as well.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $40 million
Domestic Box Office: $102 million
Overseas Box Office: $217 million
Worldwide Box Office: $319 million
(Close Date: August 25, 2016) 

--


THE HATEFUL EIGHT
The Weinstein Company
January 1, 2016 (Wide)

Opening Weekend: $26 million
Domestic Box Office: $145 million
Overseas Box Office: $221 million
Worldwide Box Office: $366 million

I think Quentin Tarantino's latest will more or less repeat the success of Django Unchained, and Tarantino's films have been seeing strong runs as of late anyway. Unlike Django Unchained, the film is going into limited roadshow release on Christmas Day, but I think that should build up considerable buzz and bolster the film on its wide opening weekend, then the post-holiday legs should be very strong from that point on.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $15 million
Domestic Box Office: $54 million
Overseas Box Office: $101 million
Worldwide Box Office: $155 million
(Close Date: April 28, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts (4/3/2016): The Hateful Eight certainly was no Django Unchained or Inglorious Basterds, and I can't imagine why it didn't quite imitate the former's success. Could be that the buzz wasn't so high, though the legs weren't too, too bad. 

--


TROLLS
20th Century Fox / DreamWorks Animation 
November 4, 2016

Opening Weekend: $37 million
Domestic Box Office: $143 million
Overseas Box Office: $231 million
Worldwide Box Office: $374 million

DreamWorks' films have been a bit tough to predict as of late. One would think they were an established brand, but after the CGI rush of the early 2000s died out, it was clear that they weren't. Some of their CG flicks were strong openers: Kung Fu Panda, Monsters vs. Aliens, and Home. Others opened with decent results, others opened poorly. The name alone didn't sell the films the way the Pixar name routinely does. Even franchise entries like Penguins of Madagascar weren't safe...

The studio now has a new marketing head, and they scored a success with the gamble that was Home. Trolls is a bit tricky. Who doesn't know those little troll dolls? At the same time, how will this be marketed? How will it appeal to crowds? How will it look like anything beyond a kids-only kind of film? Why is Fox/DreamWorks opting to release it against Doctor Strange? That's a Marvel film, and it's sure to suck away a lot of the family audiences this movie could get on opening weekend.

With this current release date, I think it'll be impacted. If it looks decent enough from the trailers, it could still open good enough. I think something like The Peanuts Movie would've opened higher than $44 million had it opened on its own, and not against a crowd-sucking movie like SPECTRE. I think the same about Trolls. After opening weekend, I bet it'll have good-to-great legs since DreamWorks films normally get good legs, regardless of critical reception. (i.e. The Croods made 4.3x its opening, Turbo made 3.9x its opening)

ACTUALS (as of 2/15/2017)
Opening Weekend: $46 million
Domestic Box Office: $153 million
Overseas Box Office: $186 million
Worldwide Box Office: $339 million

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THE ANGRY BIRDS MOVIE
Sony / Rovio
May 20, 2016

Opening Weekend: $38 million
Domestic Box Office: $140 million
Overseas Box Office: $296 million
Worldwide Box Office: $436 million

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $38 million
Domestic Box Office: $107 million
Overseas Box Office: $241 million

Worldwide Box Office: $349 million
(Close Date: September 15, 2016) 

It's often argued that Angry Birds' popularity has waned, as the game pretty much peaked around 2011 or 2012. While it's still going, is there mass demand for a feature film adaptation? With or without the games, the film looks like a fun romp that should open considerably well and have decent enough legs until bigger things like Finding Dory and The Secret Life of Pets open. Worldwide, I can see this doing a lot better.

--


CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Warner Bros. / New Line / Bluegrass
June 17, 2016

Opening Weekend: $37 million
Domestic Box Office: $139 million
Overseas Box Office: $189 million
Worldwide Box Office: $328 million

From director Rawson Marshall Thurber of DodgeBall and We're the Millers fame, this comedy ought to open well and hang on well. It seems like it's going to be one of those critic-proof comedies that audiences eat up as the weeks go by, plus you have The Rock. Can't go wrong.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $35 million
Domestic Box Office: $127 million
Overseas Box Office: $87 million
Worldwide Box Office: $215 million
(Close Date: September 1, 2016) 

--


RIDE ALONG 2
Universal Pictures / Cube Vision / Will Packer Productions
January 15, 2016

Opening Weekend: $48 million
Domestic Box Office: $139 million
Overseas Box Office: $20 million
Worldwide Box Office: $159 million

Another sequel that I believe will stay flat. The first one had good legs and a fine opening for a January release, I think this should perform no differently.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $34 million
Domestic Box Office: $90 million
Overseas Box Office: $31 million
Worldwide Box Office: $122 million 
(Close Date: April 7, 2016)


Post-Release Thoughts (4/3/2016): I guess this was another "fun the first time around" kind of thing, for the opening was a little less than the last one, and the legs were just alright. 

--


PETE'S DRAGON
Walt Disney Pictures
August 12, 2016

Opening Weekend: $38 million
Domestic Box Office: $136 million
Overseas Box Office: $201 million
Worldwide Box Office: $337 million

Disney's live-action remakes usually soar above $65 million on their opening weekends, but Pete's Dragon is cribbing from a Disney live-action/animated film that is nowhere near as iconic as some of the classics. Alice in Wonderland, Cinderella, The Jungle Book, and Maleficent are all remakes/reimaginings of animated classics that are considered either Disney's best or most popular. Pete's Dragon, I think, will have an uphill battle because of this but Disney sure knows how to market these kinds of films, so it should open okay enough. I just don't expect a huge turnout, because to some people, this may seem like a whole new movie. How many people know what the original 1977 Pete's Dragon even is?

With a smaller opening, it could have good legs. Cinderella just eked past the 3x multiplier mark, Maleficent somehow breezed past it. This could perform similarly to both.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $21 million
Domestic Box Office: $76 million
Overseas Box Office: $66 million
Worldwide Box Office: $142 million
(Close Date: December 15, 2016) 

Post-Release Thoughts: Not the out-of-nowhere hit I predicted, it still did okay for something its size. (2/16/2017) 

--


ASSASSIN'S CREED
20th Century Fox / Ubisoft / DMC
New Regency / RatPac-Dune Ent.
December 21, 2016

Opening Weekend: $40 million
Domestic Box Office: $136 million
Overseas Box Office: $254 million
Worldwide Box Office: $390 million

Assassin's Creed has been around for a long while, but of course we know that video game-based films have a spotty track record at the box office. This is because we had too many films that didn't look like must-see films, all of those films opened poorly. Something like Lara Croft: Tomb Raider looked like a must-see back in 2001, thus it opened big! Big opening, big gross. Other video game-based movies didn't have such fortunes.

Assassin's Creed simply needs to look good in order to open big. Even if it doesn't, I think it'll be frontloaded enough to score an opening above roughly $35 million. Since it's a holiday release, legs should be solid, because if this were a summer picture, I don't think it would hang on too well.

ACTUALS (as of 2/15/2017)
Opening Weekend: $10 million
Domestic Box Office: $54 million
Overseas Box Office: $157 million
Worldwide Box Office: $212 million

Post-Release Thoughts: Yet another video game movie flop... Way off. (2/16/2017)  

--


ICE AGE
COLLISION COURSE
20th Century Fox / Blue Sky
July 22, 2016

Opening Weekend: $38 million
Domestic Box Office: $133 million
Overseas Box Office: $700 million
Worldwide Box Office: $833 million

The Ice Age series kind of hit its peak with the first sequel, which wasn't very well received compared to the first installment. The first one was that just right blend of slapstick, heart, story, and whatnot. The rest have all gotten middling critical reception, and were definitely more middle-of-the-road and seemingly more kid-oriented. All of the sequels actually sold less tickets than the first film, even though 2 and 3 both outgrossed it. Ice Age: Continental Drift had the lowest opening and lowest domestic gross, I think it'll decrease once more with this film and it'll have decent legs like its predecessors all had.

Ice Age also happened to open during a time when audiences would see almost every computer animated movie, those were still a new and novel thing back in 2002. After 2006? Not so much. So quality decline and the boom being over probably led to diminishing returns for this franchise.

Though one thing is for certain, it's still going to be flying internationally. The overseas market is what keeps this franchise roaring loader than a saber-toothed tiger, so that's why a fifth one is on the horizon.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $21 million
Domestic Box Office: $64 million
Overseas Box Office: $342 million

Worldwide Box Office: $407 million
(Close Date: November 3, 2016) 

Post-Release Thoughts: Quite the drop off from its predecessors... Didn't expect it to sink this low. (2/3/2017)

--


WARCRAFT
Universal Pictures / Legendary Pictures
Blizzard Entertainment / Atlas Entertainment
June 10, 2016

Opening Weekend: $44 million
Domestic Box Office: $128 million
Overseas Box Office: $299 million
Worldwide Box Office: $427 million

World of Warcraft... Who doesn't know what World of Warcraft is? Video game movies are tricky, as they seem to be hard to crack. The highest grossing one domestically is Lara Croft: Tomb Raider, despite the awful critical reception it got. The opening was big, so it didn't matter what kind of legs it had, and the legs were so-so at best. That was also back in 2001, the film's domestic total adjusts to $193 million today!

Other films... Weren't so lucky. Quality aside, it's probably because they looked bad from the get-go, or not "must-see" enough. Gotta open big to get a good-sized gross, ya know? The whole "it was bad" coin doesn't apply here, because again... Tomb Raider got bad reviews, but it looked like a must-see, so that's why it ended up doing quite well.

So does Warcraft look like a must-see? The trailer might not appeal to non-fans and non-gamers because it arguably looks like yet another big fantasy pic, though it looks far more creative and eye-catching than something like Legendary's own Seventh Son, but is that enough to get other crowds in?

I see this being a sort-of Pacific Rim for 2016: A fanboy picture, but one that doesn't quite reach other audiences. However, Pacific Rim was an original story whereas this film is based on a huge game that still has a ton of subscribers and people at least know about it. I think it'll open a little higher than Pacific Rim, and its legs could be okay given that a strong writer/director (Duncan Jones) is behind this film, so it might end up being a high quality film that garners good word-of-mouth.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $24 million
Domestic Box Office: $47 million
Overseas Box Office: $386 million
Worldwide Box Office: $433 million
(Close Date: July 28, 2016) 

Post-Release Thoughts: Universal completely dumped this here in the states. Wasn't the small leggy hit I was thinking it would be. Overseas, I was a little closer on that one. (2/3/2017)

--


THE NICE GUYS
Warner Bros. / Silver Pictures / Waypoint Ent.
June 17, 2016

Opening Weekend: $33 million
Domestic Box Office: $128 million
Overseas Box Office: $101 million
Worldwide Box Office: $229 million

A stylish 70s-set action-comedy with the seemingly perfect blend of action and hilarious comedy, I can see this opening pretty decently for what it is, then gaining the strong legs that comedies usually get. I can see this being something of a surprise sleeper hit.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $11 million
Domestic Box Office: $36 million
Overseas Box Office: $21 million
Worldwide Box Office: $57 million
(Close Date: August 4, 2016) 

Post-Release Thoughts: Instead of being the sleeper it should've been, it's another well-made film that happened to be dumped by its distributor. (2/3/2017)

--

GAMBIT
20th Century Fox / Marvel Entertainment
Genre Films / Free Associations
October 7, 2016


Opening Weekend: $41 million
Domestic Box Office: $123 million
Overseas Box Office: $220 million
Worldwide Box Office: $343 million

I feel this should open with half of what X-Men Origins: Wolverine opened with. Wolverine was a big opener in 2009, taking in $85 million. That wasn't too bad for a spin-off/solo movie before the real rise of the Marvel Cinematic Universe! Bad reviews and bad buzz, however, ended the picture's longevity. Gambit is completely new to the X-Men movie universe, so this is coming in out of left-field. Deadpool has a huge following, and I'm sure Gambit has lots of fans... But general audiences, will they flock to see it?

I can see it opening good, and holding on okay, as the film is in promising hands. The X-Men movies never really enjoy great multipliers, so this should do decent business.

Gambit is no longer opening in 2016.
--


THE DIVERGENT SERIES
ALLEGIANT
Lionsgate / Red Wagon / Summit / Mandeville Films
March 18, 2016

Opening Weekend: $48 million
Domestic Box Office: $120 million
Overseas Box Office: $179 million
Worldwide Box Office: $299 million

Insurgent opened lower than the first and had weaker word of mouth, so I can see this opening even lower, but it'll still make a healthy amount for what it is because the franchise has its base and the YA crowd. Since this is yet another part 1 of a two-part movie, I can see the gross just being okay. However, Lionsgate isn't billing it as "Part 1", as part two will be titled Ascendant. Maybe that could help it on opening weekend, maybe not.

If it's somehow really good, maybe its legs will match the first film or surpass it even.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $29 million
Domestic Box Office: $66 million
Overseas Box Office: $110 million
Worldwide Box Office: $176 million
(Close Date: June 2, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts (4/3/2016): Whoa... Talk about interest being really low. Insurgent really must've left a sour taste, or no taste at all, for this threequel just didn't cut it on opening weekend. Legs are even worse. I predicted a decline, but not one that was... This big! 

--

 

ZOOLANDER 2
Paramount / Red Hour
February 12, 2016

Opening Weekend: $38 million
Domestic Box Office: $114 million
Overseas Box Office: $26 million
Worldwide Box Office: $140 million

Zoolander became something of a cult film after its relatively quiet theatrical run some 14 years ago. Adjusted, the opening is $23 million and the final total is $66 million. Since it now has something of a following, the sequel could perform pretty well. Paramount is wisely giving it a Valentine's Day opening, an out of the way date that could benefit it. I also think a little nostalgia could kick in as well and give it a boost.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $15 million
Domestic Box Office: $28 million
Overseas Box Office: $27 million
Worldwide Box Office: $55 million
(Close Date: March 31, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts (4/3/2016): Talk about overshooting... Zoolander 2's marketing just didn't get people in, and the film failed to even double its opening weekend gross. One of the worst performances of the year... I would've thought there would've been some kind of turnout, given the original's cult following.

--


THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN
Sony Pictures / MGM / Village-Roadshow Pictures
September 23, 2016

Opening Weekend: $37 million
Domestic Box Office: $114 million
Overseas Box Office: $188 million
Worldwide Box Office: $302 million

Director Antoine Fuqua's more recent, more blockbuster-y stuff has been pretty leggy. I suspect a remake of a classic that was already a remake of a classic could do well, and it has a strong cast. With its fall release, it should haves sturdy legs after a good-sized opening.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $34 million
Domestic Box Office: $93 million
Overseas Box Office: $67 million
Worldwide Box Office: $160 million
(Close Date: January 5, 2017)

Post-Release Thoughts: Did similar business to what I predicted, but not the overseas hit I thought it would be. Guess this Western didn't catch on in other countries, like most Westerns. (2/3/2017) 

--


JUMANJI
Sony Pictures / Tristar
Interscope Communications / Teitler Film
December 25, 2016

Opening Weekend: $29 million
Domestic Box Office: $110 million
Overseas Box Office: $221 million
Worldwide Box Office: $331 million

Jumanji was a big hit back in 1995, and I suppose 90s nostalgia for that will somewhat carry over into the new one, to some extent. I expect this one to be a leggy hit with family audiences, given its Christmas release date.

Jumanji was pushed back to 2017...

--


BARBERSHOP
THE NEXT CUT
Warner Bros. / New Line / MGM / Cube Vision
April 15, 2016

Opening Weekend: $35 million
Domestic Box Office: $107 million
Overseas Box Office: $2 million
Worldwide Box Office: $109 million

Barbershop was a pretty leggy film back in 2002, its sequel opened a little bigger but had weaker legs. Adjusted, Barbershop's gross is $108 million, while the sequel's gross is $87 million. Since it's been 10 years, perhaps there will be some sort of turnout. I say it stays between one and two, and does overall solid business.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $20 million
Domestic Box Office: $54 million
Overseas Box Office: $1 million
Worldwide Box Office: $55 million
(Close Date: July 14, 2016)

Post-Release Thoughts: Another revival sequel. Though this one would be bigger, instead it just did okay. (7/21/2016) 

--

THE ACCOUNTANT
Electric City Ent. / Zero Gravity Management
October 7, 2016

Opening Weekend: $23 million
Domestic Box Office: $102 million
Overseas Box Office: $51 million
Worldwide Box Office: $153 million

Ben Affleck headlining, from a good director, likely to be a sleeper a la The Town and Argo. The October release hints at an Oscar-ish run.

ACTUALS
Opening Weekend: $24 million
Domestic Box Office: $86 million
Overseas Box Office: $67 million

Worldwide Box Office: $153 million 
(Close Date: January 12, 2017)

Post-Release Thoughts: Oddly spot on with the final worldwide gross, but it wasn't as leggy in America as I thought it would be. (2/3/2017)

--

UNDER $100M MENTIONS

Anomalisa (TBD 2016) - $8m OW / $38m DOM / $12m OS / $50m WW - I think the praise and Oscar buzz could give it a boost after its limited opening weekend. I can see the legs being strong, too.

The so-called "wide release" of Anomalisa did not really happen.

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi (1/15/2016) - $18m OW / $50m DOM / $16m OS / $66m WW - I see this one doing smaller business at best, certainly won't be anywhere near as big as the likes of Lone Survivor or American Sniper despite being a military film and one that covers a hot issue.

ACTUALS - $16m OW / $52m DOM / $15m OS / $68m WW
(Close Date: March 24, 2016)
PRT (5/15/2016): Did serviceable business, though it would land somewhere between the two. Surprised I got this close.


Norm of the North (1/15/2016) - $3m OW / $9m DOM / $21m OS / $30m WW - Regardless of how good or bad Norm of the North may look, Lionsgate showed with Aardman's Shaun the Sheep Movie that they still put little effort into marketing animated features. With a trailer and a poster, and an out-of-the-way January release, I say it will disappear swiftly.

ACTUALS - $6m OW / $17m DOM
(Close Date: March 17, 2016) 
PRT (4/3/2016): Performed just as I expected. Tiny opening, tiny gross.

The 5th Wave (1/22/2016) - $11m OW / $30m DOM / $34m OS / $64m WW - Sometimes it's hard to determine how the next young adult adaptation will do. Will it be a good-sized film like Twilight and Divergent, or a flop like Beautiful Creatures or The Host or Mortal Instruments? With an out-of-the-way January release, it seems like it won't make much of a mark but will have decent legs.

ACTUALS - $10m OW / $34m DOM / $74m OS / $109m WW
(Close Date: May 22, 2016) 
PRT (6/27/2016): Was surprisingly leggy for a young-adult movie with mixed reviews. Its overseas gross is a bit surprising to me too. 

The Finest Hours (1/29/2016) - $17m OW / $56m DOM / $41m OS / $99m WW - This smaller-scale drama has always been intended as an out-of-the-way release, as it originally carried an October 2015 release date. It looks like a mid-winter release, and it should perform similarly to other mid-winter pictures like this. Disney's not putting much muscle into it, so I don't expect much of a biggie, though good legs should be in store for it.

ACTUALS - $10m OW / $27m DOM / $24m OS / $51m WW
(Close Date: April 7, 2016) 
PRT (6/27/2016): Sadly another live-action Disney flop that isn't a remake of an animated classic. Opening was meh, legs were okay, nothing more. 

Hail, Caeser! (2/5/2016) - $19m OW / $68m DOM / $56m OS / $124m WW - A more comedic outing from the Coen Brothers, and I have a feeling it'll be a leggy surprise. Usually their films don't open too, too big, so I expect this one to have an okay opening at best.

ACTUALS - $11m OW / $30m DOM / $31m OS / $61m WW
(Close Date: March 24, 2016) 
PRT (6/27/2016): Wasn't the leggy sleeper I hoped it would be. 

Pride and Prejudice and Zombies (2/5/2016) - $22m OW / $55m DOM / $21m OS / $76m WW - The book this film is based on, which was written by Seth-Grahame Smith (though credited to Jane Austen, as it is a rewrite/mashup of Pride and Prejudice with Grahame's stuff), was very well-received, but the movie could go either way. Seems like it'll be another late winter horror-flavored release for the bored teen crowd, so I expect it to perform accordingly. It could surprise, if it's good. The mashing of Pride and Prejudice and zombie stuff could work in its favor, but then again Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter (also written by Smith) didn't quite work.

ACTUALS - $5m OW / $10m DOM / $5m OS / $16m WW
(Close Date: February 28, 2016)
PRT (6/27/2016): Came and withered. Was way, way, way off on this one. 

How To Be Single (2/12/2016) - $10m OW / $33m DOM / $11m OS / $44m WW - There isn't much of a marketing push for this rom-com, though I suspect it'll have decent legs after a low opening. In terms of the Deadpool counter programming, Zoolander 2 might have that locked up.

ACTUALS - $17m OW / $46m DOM / $55m DOM / $102m WW
(Close Date: April 14, 2016) 
PRT (6/27/2016): Lowballed. This did okay with the date crowd on opening weekend, but had weaker legs than what I expected. 

Gods of Egypt (2/26/2016) - $9m OW / $21m DOM / $49m OS / $70m WW - With unconvincing marketing and a controversial look, this should do less than half of what big Ridley Scott's Exodus did. Then again it does look like one of those "stupid-funny" kind of movies, so maybe it could perform decently after it opens.

ACTUALS - $14m OW / $31m DOM / $109m OS / $140m WW
(Close Date: May 12, 2016)
PRT (5/15/2016): Did a little better than I thought it would in the long run, surprised it went higher overseas, but effects-driven stuff like this tends to do better overseas. (See things like Seventh Son.) 

London Has Fallen (3/4/2016) - $16m OW / $41m DOM / $84m OS / $125m WW - Olympus Has Fallen, despite the snark it got in some circles, happened to have pretty decent legs. A 3.2x multiplier, I think, is nothing to scoff at for this kind of film: The out-of-the-way, more-for-the-adults (over 18-35yo crowd) kind of thing that usually comes in the January-March region or the August-October region. The sequel, initially set to open this year, is in that same out-of-the-way spot. However, it doesn't seem to be in high demand and its trailer certainly got quite the criticism, so smaller opening, weaker legs.

ACTUALS - $21m OW / $62m DOM / $133m OS / $195m WW
(Close Date: June 2, 2016)
PRT (6/27/2016): Did a bit better than I thought it would. Never underestimate these late winter/spring adult-oriented thriller-type pics.

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot (3/4/2016) - $20m OW / $74m DOM / $37m OS / $111m WW - Glenn Ficara and John Requa's new comedy. Should open small, have good legs, and do fine for what it is.

ACTUALS - $7m OW / $23m DOM
(Close Date: April 28, 2016)
PRT (6/27/2016): Dumped, had some legs, but ultimately didn't do a thing. The domestic total is just above my opening weekend prediction, so... Overshot. 

10 Cloverfield Lane (3/11/2016) - $31m OW / $68m DOM / $81m OS / $149m WW - Before I start, this was just added to the list, as it was made in secrecy until now - January 14th - so I've decided to add it to the list. Cloverfield opened well back in early 2008 due to a great, mysterious marketing campaign. However, the movie had horrible legs, despite having a sizable fanbase. I think they'll be there on opening weekend, but I don't see legs being strong.

ACTUALS: $24m OW / $72m DOM / $36m OS / $108m WW
(Close Date: June 2, 2016)
PRT (6/27/2016): Thankfully much leggier than its predecessor, which I guessed it would be. I had the opening a little higher, but it was a well-received little-movie-that-could, and then some. 

The Brothers Grimsby (3/11/2016) - $15m OW / $55m DOM / $91m OS / $146m WW - Sacha Baron Cohen scored a sleeper hit with Borat back in 2006, and because of that success, his second feature in the same vein - Bruno - opened pretty strong... But then that picture had awful legs. The Dictator opened years later with less than stellar results, so I see this - a spy comedy/spoof - performing no differently stateside. The first trailer has also gotten very mixed-to-negative reception, the second one? The movie just seems like another out-of-the-way kind of thing, but if the actual movie is fine with the few who see it on opening weekend, it should have Dictator-esque legs.

ACTUALS - $3m OW / $6m DOM / $18m OS / $24m WW
(Close Date: April 14, 2014)
PRT (6/27/2016): Not much to say. No one really saw this... Like, at all... 

The Little Prince (3/18/2016) - $14m OW / $51m DOM / $70m OS / $121m WW - Paramount is giving the belated US release of this French animated film (based on the classic story of the same name) a ho-hum marketing campaign, so I don't expect it to do too, too well. However, legs should be on its side after it opens.
* Paramount has dropped The Little Prince. It is set to make its US debut on Netflix.

Midnight Special (Wide Release TBD) - $19m OW / $70m DOM / $82m OS / $152m WW - I have a feeling this will be one of those leggy films that doesn't open too well at first, but then the word of mouth goes around boosting the film. It's also from respected director Jeff Nichols, so it ought to be good.

ACTUALS: $3m DOM / $2m OS / $6m WW
(Close Date: May 26, 2016) 
PRT (6/19/2016): Warner Bros. barely gave this film a release.

I Saw The Light (4/1/2016) - $7m OW / $31m DOM / $2m OS / $33m WW - This will probably do just okay for a musician biopic, probably a little lower than the recent likes of Get On Up and Jersey Boys, though I think it'll have good legs given the kind of film it is.

ACTUALS: $600k OW / $1m DOM
(Close Date: June 9, 2016)
PRT (6/27/2016): Another one I overshot, though this would be some surprise little sleeper. 

God's Not Dead 2 (4/1/2016) - $12m OW / $58m DOM / $1m OS / $59m WW - The first one was another one of those leggy Christian sleeper hits, so I expect this to perform similarly.

ACTUALS (as of 7/7/2016): $7m OW / $20m DOM
PRT (6/27/2016): Did way less than I thought, had okay-ish legs, I guess it wasn't good for their audience the second time around. 

The Huntsman: Winter's War (4/22/2016) - $35m OW / $87m / $201m OS / $289m WW - Snow White and the Huntsman opened quite well back in summer 2012, and its legs weren't half-bad either. I don't expect The Huntsman to be as big though, being a spin-off and a prequel. Should open okay, hang on okay, get lost in the tentpole mix by May. Should fare better overseas...

ACTUALS: $19m OW / $48m DOM / $116m OS / $164m WW
(Close Date: June 16, 2016)
PRT (6/27/2017): A prequel no one really asked for that sunk, did even worse than I thought. 

Ratchet & Clank (4/29/2016) - $29m OW / $81m DOM / $122m OS / $203m WW - Ratchet & Clank has been around for a while, though video game-based films have a mixed track record at the box office due to many of the movies either looking undesirable or not being audience hits. Ratchet & Clank could change this, given that it's an animated film and it looks to stick very close to the source material. However, Focus/Gramercy's marketing is alright and I don't expect non-players to flock to this. Its release date, I feel, will impact its legs (given all the big blockbuster tentpoles that are right around the corner), but it should still hold on and have decent word-of-mouth.

ACTUALS: $4m OW / $8m DOM
(Close Date: June 2, 2016)
PRT (6/5/2016): Talk about being dumped... No one knew it was out, reviews were toxic, legs weren't there. 

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping (6/3/2016) - $8m OW / $20m DOM / $3m OS / $23m WW - The last time a Lonely Island movie came about, it didn't do much of a thing. That was Hot Rod in 2007. Maybe this could surprise, but I don't see it being much of a break-out. It all depends on how Universal handles it.

ACTUALS: $4m OW / $9m DOM
(Close Date: June 23, 2016)
PRT (6/27/2016): Paramount completely dumped this one. Despite strong reviews, word-of-mouth just wasn't there. Shame. 

The Purge: Election Year (7/1/2016) - $27m OW / $66m DOM / $34m OS / $100m WW - Despite opening lower than its predecessor, The Purge: Anarchy had much stronger legs. The first Purge completely sunk after its respectable opening weekend, Purge: Anarchy climbed a bit. I expect this to perform no differently, as it will be more in line with the sequel.

ACTUALS: $31m OW / $79m DOM / $31m OS / $110m WW
(Close Date: August 18, 2016) 

The Founder (8/5/2016) - $14m OW / $44m DOM / $30m OS / $74m WW - Another entry in the biopic sweepstakes. It could go either way, as marketing should determine how high it'll open. Steve Jobs was recently undone by poor marketing and is having awful legs to boot, while The Social Network soared. Will the story behind McDonald's sink or swim? Maybe because it's not as recent as Social Network or Steve Jobs, it could open okay. Legs should be okay, too.
* The Founder has been pushed to January 20, 2017...

Sausage Party (8/12/2016) - $12m OW / $55m DOM / $72m OS / $127m WW - An adults-only animated offering from Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, a raunchy send-up of your typical American animated family films. Will that be some kind of groundbreaking, surprise hit that audiences flock to? Or will it be one of those out-of-the-way but nonetheless leggy kind of films? I think the latter, but you never know with something like this. It seems like a real wild card...

ACTUALS: $34m OW / $97m DOM / $42m OS / $140m WW
(Close Date: November 3, 2016)


Spectral (8/12/2016) - $9m OW / $26m DOM / $76m OS / $102m WW - Another original genre picture from a rather unknown director, from Legendary Pictures no less. Even a well-recieved film of theirs like Crimson Peak or Krampus still has trouble, because Universal doesn't give those films the marketing muscle they need. I suspect they won't do anything with this, which is an August release no less. I expect a Seventh Son-esque performance. (No longer opening in 2016.)

Ben-Hur (8/19/2016) - $20m OW / $58m DOM / $221m OS / $279m WW - The 1959 Ben-Hur is iconic, but for a lot of young moviegoers who aren't in the know about classic cinema, how this will come off? Regardless of the quality, it seems like a bit of a hard sell, unless it's marketed right. Cast seems solid, too. It'll also be tough, considering that those who have seen the 1959 film will expect a lot out of this film. I can see it doing much better worldwide than here.

ACTUALS: $11m OW / $26m DOM / $67m OS / $94m WW
(Close Date: October 6, 2016) 

Kubo and the Two Strings (8/19/2016) - $12m OW / $56m DOM / $70m OS / $126m WW - Unfortunately, LAIKA's films aren't quite box office champions. They probably aren't meant to be in the first place, and I expect Kubo and the Two Strings to perform on par with the studio's output. This sounds a little less accessible than the other three films the studio has made, so I think it'll have a lower opening. Since this one is opening in mid-August, it'll have more time to itself, which The Boxtrolls did not have, so better legs are in store.

ACTUALS: $12m OW / $48m DOM / $21m OS / $69m WW
(Close Date: December 1, 2016) 

Snowden (9/16/2016) - $10m OW / $28m DOM / $22m OS / $50m WW - Oliver Stone hasn't been striking $100 million-sized films in the recent years, so I expect this to perform quietly, even if it is based on a current controversial figure. That didn't help his W. back in 2008, so I can't see it working for Snowden.

ACTUALS: $8m OW / $21m DOM / $9m OS / $31m WW
(Close Date: November 17, 2016) 

Bridget Jones's Baby (9/16/2016) - $11m OW / $41m DOM / $183m OS / $224m WW - The first two Bridget Jones films were very, very leggy. I can see this film benefitting from some nostalgia for them, which are now over 10 years old. For some reason, both were huge overseas, so I can see this taking off in other countries as well.

ACTUALS: $8m OW / $24m DOM / $178m OS / $202m WW
(Close Date: November 3, 2016) 

Masterminds (9/30/2016) - $20m OW / $74m DOM / $46m OS / $123m WW - Delayed from an October 2015 release due to Relativity Media's financial straits, how will the film do next year? Will there be a marketing re-launch? Will it drum up interest? I didn't see this doing huge business to begin with, so I expect its chances to stay about the same.

ACTUALS: $6 million OW / $17m DOM
(Close Date: November 10, 2016) 

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (10/21/2016) - $24m OW / $88m DOM / $167m OS / $255m WW - The first Jack Reacher film was a leggy success, not just because it had good word-of-mouth, but also because it was a holiday release and usually those have a lot of time and room to slowly make 4-5x their opening weekends. Jack Reacher's sequel ought to benefit from the slow-burn success of the first film, and open a little higher. With a higher opening, the legs will probably be good rather than excellent.

ACTUALS: $22m OW / $58m DOM / $102m OS / $161m WW
(Close Date: January 12, 2017) 

Underworld: Blood Wars (10/21/2016) - $20m OW / $46m DOM / $112m OS / $158m WW - Underworld has a small base, so this fifth installment should open with around the same amount the previous few films opened with adjusted. Other countries will keep this franchise chugging, though.

Inferno (10/28/2016) - $30m OW / $89m DOM / $296m OS / $385m WW - The next installment in the Robert Langdon series, though I think the interest in these films has definitely slipped away. The Da Vinci Code opened pretty big, being a controversial film at the time of its release, but had okay legs at best. Angels & Demons, which opened three years later, opened a little lower and had the same word of mouth. Will audiences be there for round 3? Tom Hanks may be back, but again... It'll have been 7 years since Angels & Demons, and I think that interest isn't quite there anymore. Should still do solid business, though, given its breathable release date. This series is big worldwide, so the domestic gross shouldn't be an issue.

ACTUALS (as of 1/19/2017): $14m OW / $34m DOM / $185m OS / $220m WW

Rings (10/28/2016) - $16m OW / $35m DOM / $45m OS / $80m WW - The Ring was one of those rare, leggy horror films back in the day. Its sequel opened a little bigger, but had awful legs. This third installment doesn't star any of the original cast, so I don't see it really taking off. 
* Rings was pushed back to 2017.

Terminator 2: Judgment Day 3D re-release (TBD 2016) - $15m OW / $43m DOM - This might be removed from the schedule, but they're currently planning this re-release. Since 3D re-releases outside of The Lion King 3D didn't really take off, I don't expect this to do anything big. Terminator 2 is usually always available or is showing on TV anyway, so I suppose only the buffs will be here for this one.
* The Terminator 2 re-release has been pushed back to 2017.

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TOP DOMESTIC (as of 2/16/2017)

#1. ROGUE ONE - $527 million
#2. FINDING DORY - $486 million
#3. CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR - $408 million
#4. THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS - $368 million
#5. THE JUNGLE BOOK - $364 million
#6. DEADPOOL - $363 million
#7. ZOOTOPIA - $341 million
#8. BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE - $330 million
#9. SUICIDE SQUAD - $325 million
#10. SING - $265 million
#11. MOANA - $243 million
#12. FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM - $232 million
#13. DOCTOR STRANGE - $232 million
#14. JASON BOURNE - $162 million
#15. STAR TREK BEYOND - $158 million
#16. X-MEN: APOCALYPSE - $155 million
#17. TROLLS - $153 million
#18. KUNG FU PANDA 3 - $143 million
#19. HIDDEN FIGURES - $134 million (*)
#20. LA LA LAND - $128 million (*)
#21. GHOSTBUSTERS - $128 million
#22. CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE - $127 million
#23. THE LEGEND OF TARZAN - $126 million
#24. SULLY - $125 million
#25. BAD MOMS - $113 million
#26. THE ANGRY BIRDS MOVIE - $107 million
#27. INDEPENDENCE DAY: RESURGENCE - $103 million
#28. THE CONJURING 2 - $102 million
#29. ARRIVAL - $99 million
#30. PASSENGERS - $98 million

15 comments:

  1. "Finding Nemo" made $472.6 million adjusted. I think "Finding Dory" could make more than that. Just like Toy Story 3 which made more money than two previous films even adjusted.
    Finding Dory could easily reach an amount between $510-540 million (and I hope so)

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  2. I'm rather surprised we haven't seen any advertisements for Storks yet. Given the success of The LEGO Movie, you would think that WB would start putting effort into marketing their original movies.
    Also, while you may not have added it because it's a small-scale independent movie, I'm curious to know what your estimates for Anomalisa are. Do you think it stands a chance of earning back its $8 million budget?

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    1. I think when it expands, whenever that'll be, I think it can pull in around $15m domestically, or more. Worldwide? I'm not sure, but I can see it making its budget back without much trouble.

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  3. Great list! I do think the Ghostbusters reboot will tank though.

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  4. Great list as always. I look forward to seeing how the year pans out.

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  5. Well, it's February now. Has your prediction for Anomalisa at all changed?

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  6. Pride and prejudice and zombies closed on February 28th.

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  7. Pride and prejudice and zombies closed on February 28th.

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  8. Wow... Zootopia is getting bigger than expected. With alot more to come Domestically and overseas, given the addition of two weeks of extended play in China. And Japan coming soon, this movie might hit $1 BILLION

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  9. The fact that Anomalisa didn't get a wide release even after Paramount said it would is nothing short of criminal. Not only would it have easily made a profit given its low budget, but this demonstrates that even today, large film studios still have no clue how to market intelligent adult-oriented animation.

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  10. I hope Moana is a box office hit.

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  11. Can you update your 2016 box office Predictions with your Post-Release Thoughts please?

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  12. Can you update your 2016 box office Predictions with your Post-Release Thoughts please?

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  13. Can you update your 2016 box office Predictions with your Post-Release Thoughts please?

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